TDN R1 · 2026-10-06

PASSD1320y1 readyPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#9 vs #3)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#9THEDAYOFTHEGREYE
C2#3RED CHILI PEPPEREP
C3#5BOLD BUCKEYEP
C4#6RED HEAD KIDP
C5#4KETTLE COALMINEP
C6#1SOCIAL HISTORYS
C7#8MAY MAYHEMC
C8#7C V DYNAMICC
C9#2MARQUITOS MC

A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #9 THEDAYOFTHEGREY and #3 RED CHILI PEPPER. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #5 BOLD BUCKEYE, #6 RED HEAD KID, #4 KETTLE COALMINE, #1 SOCIAL HISTORY · hurts #9 THEDAYOFTHEGREY, #3 RED CHILI PEPPER

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #9 THEDAYOFTHEGREY and #3 RED CHILI PEPPER hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #5 BOLD BUCKEYE, #6 RED HEAD KID, #4 KETTLE COALMINE, #1 SOCIAL HISTORY · hurts #9 THEDAYOFTHEGREY, #3 RED CHILI PEPPER

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 SOCIAL HISTORY, #8 MAY MAYHEM, #7 C V DYNAMIC, #2 MARQUITOS M).

Helps #1 SOCIAL HISTORY, #8 MAY MAYHEM, #7 C V DYNAMIC, #2 MARQUITOS M · hurts #9 THEDAYOFTHEGREY, #3 RED CHILI PEPPER

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
5	BOLD BUCKEYEFELICIANO R	1.8	P	Tag dropSame trip2026-08-05 TDN 4f 49.40 B MT gd 13/18; 2026-05-21 TDN 4f 47.80 Bg MT ft 3/30 · barn: same as last	sClm50000 → Clm 16000b	POOLE JOE M	Favorite
3	RED CHILI PEPPERBOWEN ROCCO	3.5	EP	Same trip2026-07-27 TDN 5f 62.80 Bg MT ft 3/6; 2026-07-20 TDN 2f 25.80 Bg MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last	sClm16000b → Clm 16000b	HAMM TIMOTHY	field
8	MAY MAYHEMSIMPSON JASON	4.0	C	—2026-07-22 TDN 4f 50.00 B MT my bullet 1/9; 2026-07-09 TDN 4f 51.80 B MT ft 25/27 · barn: same as last	sClm16000n2x → Clm 16000b	JOHNSON GARY L	field
1	SOCIAL HISTORYSALAZAR BECERRA FERNANDO	6.0	S	Barn change2026-04-18 TDN 5f 60.00 B MT ft bullet 1/6; 2026-04-08 MVR 4f 48.00 B MT ft 3/13 · barn: change vs MURILLO RODRIGUEZ ALEJANDRO	sClm7500c → Clm 16000b	CLINE ROBERT C	field
6	RED HEAD KIDPARKER D L	8.0	P	Top last figSame trip2026-05-09 TDN 4f 50.40 B MT wf 14/21; 2026-01-14 MVR 4f 51.00 B MT gd 34/41 · barn: same as last	sClm7500 → Clm 16000b	GONZALEZ RICARDO	field
9	THEDAYOFTHEGREYHALDAR HUMBERTO	10.0	E	Led lastSame trip2026-07-25 BTP 4f 48.60 B MT ft 5/26; 2026-07-04 BTP 4f 48.80 B MT ft 5/10 · barn: same as last	sClm16000b → Clm 16000b	CLINE ROBERT C	field
4	KETTLE COALMINEDIAZ ANGEL I	15.0	P	Rising figsSame trip2025-10-27 MVR 4f 49.60 B MT gd 4/9; 2025-09-08 TDN 4f 48.40 Bg MT ft bullet 1/10 · barn: same as last	sClm16000n3l → Clm 16000b	FAULKNER RODNEY C	field
7	C V DYNAMICKEISER CHELSEY	20.0	C	Barn change2026-10-01 TDN 3f 39.20 B MT ft 3/3; 2026-09-10 TDN 3f 39.20 B MT ft 9/10 · barn: change vs CALDERON IVAN	sClm7500c → Clm 16000b	GUCIARDO ROBERT	field
2	MARQUITOS MTAPARA BRANDON	20.0	C	Trouble lastClass dropSame trip2026-08-26 TDN 5f 64.40 B MT ft 6/7; 2026-07-08 TDN 3f 39.40 B MT ft 8/11 · barn: same as last	sAlw35800n1x → Clm 16000b	HUEPENBECKER LOREN	primed

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed

RACETDN R1 · 2026-10-06 · Dirt 1320y Clm 16000b
SHAPETwo-speed duel (#9 vs #3) sets up stalkers/pressers; bias favors early speed but pace collapse likely; chalk dropping steeply in class off declining figs
CHALKFavorite#5 BOLD BUCKEYE · fade · figs have cratered four straight starts (89→64), last two lines show "stopped" and "empty," drop from sClm50000 looks like a barn parking a tired horse, not a live class move
LEANWinner call#5 BOLD BUCKEYE · public will make it chalk regardless; no better winner call exists with figs this compressed, but this is a reluctant lean on pace path alone
PRIMED#2 MARQUITOS M (trouble last, class drop) — flags are real but figs (60–65) are below field peak and path is C-only
PRICEnone — no non-chalk overlay on the board; model edge on all non-chalk horses is negative or trivial
PLAYPrice ticketPASS
KILLChalk fires despite declining figs; #3 RED CHILI PEPPER clears and repeats; bias reversal helps lone speed
MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition day-of, rider changes

Why

Dirt sprint claiming at TDN, moderate-to-high volatility with a deep class drop from chalk and a field of figs mostly clustered in the 60s–70s. The shape is a two-speed duel (#9 E vs #3 EP) that historically at this track kills the speed and sets up stalkers — chalk #5 BOLD BUCKEYE is a presser who should benefit from the pace but is short at 9-5 off a cratering fig line (89→85→76→64) and a massive class drop that screams dump, not send. The sheet's lone primed horse is #2 MARQUITOS M (trouble last, class drop from ALW into this claimer), but its best figs (60–65) are well below what wins this spot, the signal is deeply negative (–1.14), and its path is C-only — a dirt sprint closer with no pace to run into; no non-chalk overlay exists on the board.

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Ready, not overlaid

#2 MARQUITOS MML 20.0Trouble lastClass dropSame trip

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
5	BOLD BUCKEYE	1.8	27.9%	29.2%	+1.4%	0.48	P	favoriteTag dropSame trip	—
3	RED CHILI PEPPER	3.5	17.3%	18.8%	+1.5%	0.62	EP	Same trip	—
8	MAY MAYHEM	4.0	15.6%	15.9%	+0.3%	0.38	C		—
1	SOCIAL HISTORY	6.0	11.1%	10.1%	-1.0%	-0.08	S	Barn change	—
6	RED HEAD KID	8.0	8.7%	9.8%	+1.1%	0.78	P	Top last figSame trip	—
9	THEDAYOFTHEGREY	10.0	7.1%	6.2%	-0.9%	-0.24	E	Led lastSame trip	—
4	KETTLE COALMINE	15.0	4.9%	4.4%	-0.5%	-0.15	P	Rising figsSame trip	—
7	C V DYNAMIC	20.0	3.7%	2.9%	-0.8%	-0.65	C	Barn change	—
2	MARQUITOS M	20.0	3.7%	2.6%	-1.1%	-1.14	C	Trouble lastClass dropSame trip	—