SA R9 · 2026-10-04
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#7 vs #9)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#7VAN GOGH STYLEE
- C2#4MAKER AND SONSP
- C3#9BIG VENGEANCEEP
- C4#8TAMARANDO BEACHP
- C5#2SAMMY DAVISP
- C6#5MY BODACIOUS BOYC
- C7#6FUMANOS MAGICC
- C8#1OTTIS BETTSS
- C9#3FIONELLOC
Honest pace among #7 VAN GOGH STYLE and #9 BIG VENGEANCE. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #4 MAKER AND SONS, #8 TAMARANDO BEACH, #2 SAMMY DAVIS, #1 OTTIS BETTS · hurts #7 VAN GOGH STYLE, #9 BIG VENGEANCE
Pressure: #7 VAN GOGH STYLE and #9 BIG VENGEANCE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #4 MAKER AND SONS, #8 TAMARANDO BEACH, #2 SAMMY DAVIS, #1 OTTIS BETTS · hurts #7 VAN GOGH STYLE, #9 BIG VENGEANCE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#5 MY BODACIOUS BOY, #6 FUMANOS MAGIC, #1 OTTIS BETTS, #3 FIONELLO).
Helps #5 MY BODACIOUS BOY, #6 FUMANOS MAGIC, #1 OTTIS BETTS, #3 FIONELLO · hurts #7 VAN GOGH STYLE, #9 BIG VENGEANCE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MY BODACIOUS BOYHERNANDEZ JUAN J | 1.2 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffTop last figSame trip2026-09-25 SA 4f 49.20 H MT ft 23/43; 2026-09-18 SA 4f 47.40 H MT ft 6/66 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n1x → OClm 50000n1x | YAKTEEN TIM | Favorite |
| 6 | FUMANOS MAGICFREY KYLE | 5.0 | C | Rising figsSharp workSame trip2026-09-21 SA 5f 59.60 H MT ft bullet 1/52; 2026-09-13 SA 4f 49.40 H MT ft 52/74 · barn: same as last | OC50000 → OClm 50000n1x | BRINKERHOFF VAL | field |
| 2 | SAMMY DAVISROSARIO JOEL | 6.0 | P | Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-28 SA 5f 60.20 H MT ft 11/53; 2026-09-21 SA 5f 60.60 H MT ft 13/52 · barn: same as last | Clm50000 → OClm 50000n1x | SADLER JOHN W | primed |
| 7 | VAN GOGH STYLEBAZE T C | 8.0 | E | Top last paceSame trip2026-09-27 SA 5f 60.60 H MT ft 15/70; 2026-09-20 SA 4f 46.80 H MT ft 4/97 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n1x → OClm 50000n1x | MCCARTHY SEAN | field |
| 9 | BIG VENGEANCEESPINOZA V | 10.0 | EP | Rising figsTrouble lastLed lastSame trip2026-09-27 SA 4f 48.00 H MT ft 22/100; 2026-09-19 SA 4f 50.00 H MT ft 87/98 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → OClm 50000n1x | GARCIA ANTONIO C | primed |
| 3 | FIONELLOPEREIRA TIAGO | 8.0 | C | Same trip2026-09-23 SA 5f 59.80 H MT ft 2/12; 2026-09-13 SA 4f 47.20 H MT ft 5/74 · barn: same as last | sRealGdDelB150k → OClm 50000n1x | KNAPP STEVE | field |
| 8 | TAMARANDO BEACHLEPAROUX JULIEN R | 15.0 | P | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-14 SA 4f 47.60 H MT ft 7/79; 2026-09-06 DMR 5f 61.20 H MT ft 18/35 · barn: same as last | Clm25000n2l → OClm 50000n1x | ELLIS RONALD W | primed |
| 1 | OTTIS BETTSAYUSO ARMANDO | 12.0 | S | 3rd start cycle2026-09-26 SA 4f 48.20 H MT ft 25/74; 2026-09-18 SA 4f 49.80 H MT ft 53/66 · barn: same as last | OC50000 → OClm 50000n1x | ELLIS RONALD W | field |
| 4 | MAKER AND SONSMALDONADO E | 20.0 | P | Same trip2026-09-26 SLR 4f 47.40 H MT ft 2/42; 2026-09-19 SLR 4f 47.60 H MT ft 5/47 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n1x → OClm 50000n1x | CAPESTRO PAULA S | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACESA R9 · 2026-10-04 · Dirt 1430y · OClm 50000 N1X
- SHAPETwo-speed duel risk (#7 E vs #9 EP) sets up stalkers/pressers; pace high, favors midpack runners in A/B
- CHALKFavorite#5 MY BODACIOUS BOY · short (1.2 ML) · top fig 93, class drop, multiple ready flags — solid but unplayable at this price
- LEANWinner call#5 MY BODACIOUS BOY · dominant fig, class, trip; duel helps its C style find a clean lane
- PRIMED#2 SAMMY DAVIS (rising figs, 3rd start cycle) · #9 BIG VENGEANCE (rising figs, trouble last) · #8 TAMARANDO BEACH (rising figs, 2nd off layoff) — none carry a non-chalk overlay
- PRICEno price (sheet rec PASS; no non-chalk overlays)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLChalk fires from the back as expected; no price horse available regardless
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/surface condition, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt sprint, OClm 50k N1X at SA, nine horses, moderate-to-high volatility with a class-drop chalk and several off-the-pace types looking for a duel to develop. The pace map projects a two-speed duel between lone-E #7 VAN GOGH STYLE and EP #9 BIG VENGEANCE at 1-2, which sets up the P/S midpack wave — but the chalk #5 MY BODACIOUS BOY at 1.2 ML is a C-style who drops from sOC20k and posted a 93 fig on a bumped, wide trip last out, making it the dominant class/fig horse and effectively impossible to oppose at a fair price. #8 TAMARANDO BEACH has two ready flags (rising figs 85→88, 2nd off layoff) and a presser's path in scenario A/B, but drops in from Clm25k N2L into OClm50k N1X — that is a class *raise* in tag and restriction, and the model shows no overlay; at 15-1 ML there may be a curiosity, but the sheet shows no price overlay on any non-chalk horse.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MY BODACIOUS BOY | 1.2 | 36.0% | 44.5% | +8.6% | 1.32 | C | favoriteRising figs2nd off layoffTop last figSame trip | — |
| 6 | FUMANOS MAGIC | 5.0 | 13.2% | 13.3% | +0.1% | 0.49 | C | Rising figsSharp workSame trip | — |
| 2 | SAMMY DAVIS | 6.0 | 11.3% | 8.9% | -2.4% | -0.47 | P | Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 7 | VAN GOGH STYLE | 8.0 | 8.8% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -0.15 | E | Top last paceSame trip | — |
| 9 | BIG VENGEANCE | 10.0 | 7.2% | 7.0% | -0.2% | 0.35 | EP | Rising figsTrouble lastLed lastSame trip | — |
| 3 | FIONELLO | 8.0 | 8.8% | 6.6% | -2.2% | -0.69 | C | Same trip | — |
| 8 | TAMARANDO BEACH | 15.0 | 4.9% | 5.0% | +0.1% | 0.53 | P | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 1 | OTTIS BETTS | 12.0 | 6.1% | 4.0% | -2.1% | -1.25 | S | 3rd start cycle | — |
| 4 | MAKER AND SONS | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.2% | -0.5% | -0.13 | P | Same trip | — |