PID R2 · 2026-09-29

BETD1430y1 price overlay(s)PLAY lookRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

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Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find PID R2 · 2026-09-29 on their board.

Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

Wall of early / pressers (#2 #4 #6 #1)

Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#2PEARL OF ACLAIME
C2#4TURF CATE
C3#6SHY DA RUNNERE
C4#1BLAZING BOE
C5#5HOUSEBUILDERS
C6#3SHOWDOWN KINGC

A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #2 PEARL OF ACLAIM and #4 TURF CAT and #6 SHY DA RUNNER and #1 BLAZING BO. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #5 HOUSEBUILDER · hurts #2 PEARL OF ACLAIM, #4 TURF CAT, #6 SHY DA RUNNER, #1 BLAZING BO

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #2 PEARL OF ACLAIM and #4 TURF CAT and #6 SHY DA RUNNER and #1 BLAZING BO hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #5 HOUSEBUILDER · hurts #2 PEARL OF ACLAIM, #4 TURF CAT, #6 SHY DA RUNNER, #1 BLAZING BO

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#5 HOUSEBUILDER, #3 SHOWDOWN KING).

Helps #5 HOUSEBUILDER, #3 SHOWDOWN KING · hurts #2 PEARL OF ACLAIM, #4 TURF CAT, #6 SHY DA RUNNER, #1 BLAZING BO

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
1	BLAZING BORODRIGUEZ ISRAEL O	3.5	E	Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-05-29 WO 3f 37.40 B TT ft 5/6; 2026-04-24 WO 3f 37.20 B TT ft 2/4 · barn: same as last	Clm5000b → Clm 5000n3y	POTTS RON G JR	overlay
4	TURF CATMARTINEZ GADDIEL A	3.0	E	Tag dropLed lastSharp workSame trip2026-09-24 TTC 3f 38.00 B MT ft 4/12; 2026-09-18 TTC 3f 36.00 B MT ft bullet 1/7 · barn: same as last	Clm8000b → Clm 5000n3y	MATEJKA PAVEL	field
3	SHOWDOWN KINGMONTANEZ ROSARIO	2.5	C	Tag dropSame trip2026-07-30 PID 3f 38.60 B MT ft 6/6; 2026-05-12 PID 3f 36.60 B MT ft 4/17 · barn: same as last	Clm8500 → Clm 5000n3y	PAPPADA MICHAEL C	Favorite
2	PEARL OF ACLAIMKINGSLEY TAYLOR	4.0	E	Rising figsSame trip2026-05-10 PID 4f 47.00 B MT gd 5/16; 2026-04-29 PID 3f 36.80 B MT ft 2/9 · barn: same as last	Clm5000b → Clm 5000n3y	MORRELL JUSTIN R	field
6	SHY DA RUNNERROJAS MARTINA	8.0	E	Class dropTop last paceSame trip2026-09-10 PID 3f 36.80 B MT ft 9/13; 2026-08-18 PID 4f 49.20 B MT ft 14/21 · barn: same as last	Alw39600n1x → Clm 5000n3y	ROJAS MURRAY L	pace + drop
5	HOUSEBUILDERGONZALEZ ALEX	8.0	S	Tag dropSame trip2026-04-19 MNR 4f 49.80 B D MT sl 3/7; 2026-04-11 MNR 3f 36.80 B MT ft 3/16 · barn: same as last	Clm8000b → Clm 5000n3y	HERRINGTON CALLY ANN	field

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY lookLook — stamp tote to make this an action grade

RACEPID R2 · 2026-09-29 · Dirt 1430y Clm5000n3y
SHAPEWall of four early types guarantees an honest-to-honest duel; pace shape clearly benefits the back-of-field runners, but the closer (chalk) is the main beneficiary while the one speed horse with a real fig (#1) has an inside rail path if it rates
CHALKFavorite#3 SHOWDOWN KING · opposable · closer with negative zPace at a speed-bias track, dependent on rivals imploding; last fig 69 (recent), edge is negative (-0.047), fade only if the pace doesn't cook — shape is in its favor but the price is not
LEANWinner call#1 BLAZING BO · top fig (85), inside post, rising cycle, pace path exists in A if it rates off pressure
PRIMEDnone (ingest confirms)
PRICE#1 BLAZING BO · ML 3.5 · edge +0.059 · only non-chalk overlay
PLAYPrice ticket#1 BLAZING BO · win · minimum 3-1 (at 5-2 or shorter, pass)
KILL#1 hooks rivals wire-to-wire and empties; pace duel never materializes and chalk #3 sweeps; late scratch changes the pace map
MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes day-of

Why

Dirt sprint claiming (1430y, $5k, 3yo+), six starters, small field, moderate-to-high volatility given the wall of four early types and a bias that rewards inside speed.

Four horses (1-2-4-6) all project to the front, making a duel near-certain; the pace shape strongly favors the one stalker (#5) and the closer (#3), though #3 is chalk at 2.5-1 and needs the pace to cook since its own zPace is deep negative. The lone non-chalk overlay is #1 BLAZING BO, an inside post E-type with the top fig in the field (85), a sharp rising cycle (68→85), and a post-1 rail advantage on a track that sends 50% of winners from posts 1-3 — but it must survive the early hook, which is the core risk.

No horse reaches the 2+ primed threshold per the ingest (brief says "none"), but #1 has rising figs, top fig, and the best pace path if it can rate off a contested pace rather than dueling three rivals to a standstill.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Pace + drop

#6 SHY DA RUNNERROJAS MURRAY LPD same · not figML 8.0Class dropTop last paceSame trip

Price overlays

#1 BLAZING BO+5.9%ML 3.5Rising figsTop last figSame trip

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
1	BLAZING BO	3.5	18.8%	24.7%	+5.9%	1.16	E	Rising figsTop last figSame trip	—
4	TURF CAT	3.0	21.2%	22.2%	+1.1%	0.27	E	Tag dropLed lastSharp workSame trip	—
3	SHOWDOWN KING	2.5	24.2%	19.5%	-4.7%	-0.80	C	favoriteTag dropSame trip	—
2	PEARL OF ACLAIM	4.0	16.9%	16.3%	-0.7%	-0.09	E	Rising figsSame trip	—
6	SHY DA RUNNER	8.0	9.4%	9.0%	-0.4%	-0.12	E	Class dropTop last paceSame trip	—
5	HOUSEBUILDER	8.0	9.4%	8.3%	-1.1%	-0.42	S	Tag dropSame trip	—