CD R4 · 2026-09-27
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Pace unknown — not enough call1/e1
Pressure unknown. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#4SUBJUGATIONEP
- C2#8KAMASSAUU
- C3#6YACHT MASTERUU
- C4#7HAZY HORIZONUU
- C5#1CREOLE MISCHIEFUU
- C6#5TIMELAPSEUU
- C7#9WOLVERINEUU
#4 SUBJUGATION controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #4 SUBJUGATION · hurts —
Someone presses #4 SUBJUGATION. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps — · hurts #4 SUBJUGATION
Chaos: the map fails and the race becomes a scramble. No dedicated closer on the file.
Helps — · hurts #4 SUBJUGATION
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | KAMASSAORTIZ JOSE L | 3.0 | U | Sharp work2026-09-21 CD 4f 47.00 Bg MT ft bullet 1/11; 2026-09-15 CD 5f 61.80 B MT ft 4/5 · barn: CATALANO WAYNE M (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | CATALANO WAYNE M | Favorite |
| 6 | YACHT MASTERGAFFALIONE TYLER | 3.5 | U | Sharp work2026-09-21 CD 4f 47.80 Bg MT ft 4/11; 2026-09-14 CD 5f 60.80 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: BAFFERT BOB (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | BAFFERT BOB | field |
| 7 | HAZY HORIZONHAZLEWOOD YEDSIT | 4.0 | U | Top last figSame trip2026-09-19 KEE 4f 47.40 Bg MT ft 11/59; 2026-09-12 KEE 5f 60.00 B MT ft bullet 1/7 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | WARD WESLEY A | field |
| 1 | CREOLE MISCHIEFCONCEPCION AXEL | 4.0 | U | —2026-09-20 CD 4f 49.20 Bg MT ft 49/100; 2026-09-13 CD 5f 61.40 B MT ft 14/25 · barn: SHARP JOE (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | SHARP JOE | field |
| 4 | SUBJUGATIONASMUSSEN KEITH J | 6.0 | EP | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip2026-09-15 SAR 4f 49.40 B TT ft 4/9; 2026-09-07 SAR 4f 51.80 B TT ft 18/19 · barn: same as last | MdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | ASMUSSEN STEVEN M | field |
| 5 | TIMELAPSESAEZ LUIS | 10.0 | U | —2026-09-20 CDT 5f 61.20 B MT ft 8/11; 2026-09-13 CDT 5f 62.60 B MT ft 13/13 · barn: DIVITO JAMES P (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | DIVITO JAMES P | field |
| 9 | WOLVERINEBESCHIZZA ADAM | 20.0 | U | —2026-09-20 CDT 4f 49.60 B MT ft 24/38; 2026-09-09 CDT 4f 48.00 Bg MT ft 2/14 · barn: CUNNINGHAM S JADE (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | CUNNINGHAM S JADE | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACECD R4 · 2026-09-27 · Dirt 1210y Maiden Sp Wt $120k
- SHAPENear-total unknown — 7 debuts, lone EP (#4) projects soft lead in A,
- CHALKFavorite#8 KAMASSA · solid on works (bullet 1/11) and Catalano's +ROI MSW dirt
- LEANWinner call#6 YACHT MASTER · Baffert debut barn hits 33% w / 64% ITM in MSW;
- PRIMEDnone
- PRICEno price — no non-chalk overlay clears the model; all edges negative
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLAny debut runner with hidden speed reshapes the pace map entirely;
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes, pedigree data
Why
Predominantly a debut field on dirt at 1210y, MSW $120k purse — seven of nine have no PPs, making this an extreme-volatility maiden sprint where barn/works pedigree separates contenders from unknowns. Pace shape is largely unresolvable with one live PP (#4 SUBJUGATION, EP) and one returning runner (#7 HAZY HORIZON, last out on turf), so #4 likely controls scenario A but the map collapses without knowing where the debut speed sits; chalk #8 KAMASSA carries the top bullet (1/11 on 9/21) for Catalano, whose Maiden SpWt dirt ROI is actually positive (+0.16), while #6 YACHT MASTER brings the Baffert brand with a 33% debut win rate and a field-best 63%+ ITM. No horse clears the 2+ flag PRIMED threshold — #7 HAZY HORIZON has the top last fig (80) and same-trip credit returning off a turf sprint, but zPace is negative and the model edge is only +0.009 with overlay=false.
```
but any debut speed horse blows up that map; extreme volatility
book, but 3-1 on a debut in a nine-horse field offers no price
Gaffalione up; works are steady if not flashy; fits the profile best
even with no overlay
or trivially positive without overlay flag
#4 SUBJUGATION's rising figs are real but model says no overlay at 6-1
for debut runners
```Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | KAMASSA | 3.0 | 21.7% | 21.6% | -0.0% | 0.00 | U | favoriteSharp work | 4 |
| 6 | YACHT MASTER | 3.5 | 19.3% | 19.2% | -0.0% | 0.00 | U | Sharp work | WIN |
| 7 | HAZY HORIZON | 4.0 | 17.3% | 17.8% | +0.5% | 0.12 | U | Top last figSame trip | 2 |
| 1 | CREOLE MISCHIEF | 4.0 | 17.3% | 17.3% | -0.0% | 0.00 | U | 7 | |
| 4 | SUBJUGATION | 6.0 | 12.4% | 12.0% | -0.4% | -0.12 | EP | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip | 3 |
| 5 | TIMELAPSE | 10.0 | 7.9% | 7.9% | -0.0% | 0.00 | U | 5 | |
| 9 | WOLVERINE | 20.0 | 4.1% | 4.1% | -0.0% | 0.00 | U | 6 |