FP R6 · 2026-10-10
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#3 #4 #2 #5)
Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#3ILLINI REDE
- C2#4FIVEOCLOCKCHARLIEE
- C3#2ONTHEWAYJIMMYEP
- C4#5DIAMND CON SUERTEEP
- C5#7TAHOE RUNP
- C6#6COOLTHINGS
- C7#1ADIOS KIDS
- C8#8GRAYHOPC
Honest pace among #3 ILLINI RED and #4 FIVEOCLOCKCHARLIE and #2 ONTHEWAYJIMMY and #5 DIAMND CON SUERTE. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #7 TAHOE RUN, #6 COOLTHING, #1 ADIOS KID · hurts #3 ILLINI RED, #4 FIVEOCLOCKCHARLIE, #2 ONTHEWAYJIMMY, #5 DIAMND CON SUERTE
Pressure: #3 ILLINI RED and #4 FIVEOCLOCKCHARLIE and #2 ONTHEWAYJIMMY and #5 DIAMND CON SUERTE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #7 TAHOE RUN, #6 COOLTHING, #1 ADIOS KID · hurts #3 ILLINI RED, #4 FIVEOCLOCKCHARLIE, #2 ONTHEWAYJIMMY, #5 DIAMND CON SUERTE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#6 COOLTHING, #1 ADIOS KID, #8 GRAYHOP).
Helps #6 COOLTHING, #1 ADIOS KID, #8 GRAYHOP · hurts #3 ILLINI RED, #4 FIVEOCLOCKCHARLIE, #2 ONTHEWAYJIMMY, #5 DIAMND CON SUERTE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ONTHEWAYJIMMYBENDEZU ALEXANDER | 2.0 | EP | Rising figsLed last2026-07-22 FP 4f 49.20 B MT ft 3/10; 2026-05-12 FP 3f 37.20 B MT ft 3/9 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n4l → OClm 20000n4l | BECKER SCOTT | Favorite |
| 3 | ILLINI REDARANGUREN JOHANIS | 2.5 | E | —2026-09-03 FP 4f 49.40 B MT ft bullet 1/6; 2026-05-29 FP 4f 49.40 B MT ft 3/8 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n4l → OClm 20000n4l | MANLEY STEVE | Favorite |
| 4 | FIVEOCLOCKCHARLIEWALES T | 5.0 | E | Same trip2026-09-17 FP 4f 49.60 B MT ft 6/11; 2026-05-12 FP 4f 50.00 B MT ft 15/32 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n4l → OClm 20000n4l | WATKINS JAMES M | field |
| 5 | DIAMND CON SUERTELARA VICTOR | 10.0 | EP | Rising figs3rd start cycleLed lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-08-18 FP 4f 52.00 B MT ft 34/37; 2026-06-13 FP 5f 62.20 B MT ft 3/10 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n3l → OClm 20000n4l | WILBORN KEVIN | primed |
| 6 | COOLTHINGREYES FRANK | 9.0 | S | Same trip2026-08-28 FP 4f 51.00 B MT ft 9/13; 2026-04-03 FP 4f 48.80 B MT ft 4/14 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n3l → OClm 20000n4l | LYNCH HARRY E | field |
| 8 | GRAYHOPSANTIAGO VICTOR | 7.0 | C | —2026-09-16 FP 4f 50.60 B MT ft 3/6; 2026-08-25 FP 4f 50.40 B MT ft 8/14 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n4l → OClm 20000n4l | PLASTERS LORI | field |
| 7 | TAHOE RUNFELIX J E | 8.0 | P | —2026-08-22 FP 3f 38.60 B MT ft 6/9; 2026-07-19 HAW 4f 49.60 B MT ft 17/32 · barn: same as last | sOC20000n4l → OClm 20000n4l | WATKINS JAMES M | field |
| 1 | ADIOS KIDTAVARES JAVIER | 15.0 | S | Same trip2026-07-24 FP 5f 60.60 B MT ft bullet 1/6; 2026-05-02 FP 5f 61.60 B MT ft 2/11 · barn: same as last | OC25000 → OClm 20000n4l | DELONG BEN | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFP R6 · 2026-10-10 · Dirt 1320y · OClm 20000n4l
- SHAPEWall of early speed (#3 #4 #2 #5) sets up extreme pace pressure; stalkers/closers (#6 #7 #1 #8) own the A/B flow if the duel empties the front end
- CHALKFavorite#2 ONTHEWAYJIMMY / #3 ILLINI RED co-chalks · #2 usable but short (overlay-true, rising figs, but chalk by ML); #3 opposable (fig 28 last out stretching, zForm -2.19, no ready flags)
- LEANWinner call#5 DIAMND CON SUERTE · primed EP with top fig (83) and top e1 (93), third start of cycle, won last at this exact trip — most likely to fire if the duel sets up
- PRIMED#5 DIAMND CON SUERTE (rising_figs, third_start_cycle, led_last, top_last_fig, top_last_pace)
- PRICEnone — no non-chalk overlays on the brief; #5 is primed but not an overlay at 10-1 ML (edge 0.015, overlay=false)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#5 gets hooked on the lead again and can't clear; duel doesn't materialize and a lone speed survives; #3 bounces back to its sprint form (fig 85)
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt sprint at FP in an OClm 20000n4l with a wall of early speed and two co-chalks at 2 and 2.5, making this a high-volatility race for any price horse trying to come from off the pace. The shape is a probable duel or meltdown among four early types (#2 #3 #4 #5), with both chalks (#2 ONTHEWAYJIMMY, #3 ILLINI RED) sitting squarely in the fire — #3 collapsed to a fig of 28 last out stretching out and has no ready flags, while #2 is overlay-true but chalk and untouchable as a play. #5 DIAMND CON SUERTE is the only primed horse (rising figs 68→83, third start of cycle, led last, top fig and top e1 in the field) and has a legitimate path if the duel burns the leaders — but the model shows no price overlay at 10-1 ML and no non-chalk overlays exist on this card. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ONTHEWAYJIMMY | 2.0 | 26.1% | 28.3% | +2.2% | 0.49 | EP | favoriteRising figsLed last | — |
| 3 | ILLINI RED | 2.5 | 22.4% | 21.5% | -1.0% | -0.01 | E | favorite | — |
| 4 | FIVEOCLOCKCHARLIE | 5.0 | 13.1% | 14.7% | +1.6% | 0.62 | E | Same trip | — |
| 5 | DIAMND CON SUERTE | 10.0 | 7.1% | 8.6% | +1.5% | 0.93 | EP | Rising figs3rd start cycleLed lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 6 | COOLTHING | 9.0 | 7.8% | 8.2% | +0.4% | 0.35 | S | Same trip | — |
| 8 | GRAYHOP | 7.0 | 9.8% | 7.7% | -2.1% | -0.81 | C | — | |
| 7 | TAHOE RUN | 8.0 | 8.7% | 7.5% | -1.2% | -0.43 | P | — | |
| 1 | ADIOS KID | 15.0 | 4.9% | 3.5% | -1.4% | -1.15 | S | Same trip | — |