KEE R5 · 2026-10-10
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find KEE R5 · 2026-10-10 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #6 NEVER GONNA STOP
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#6NEVER GONNA STOPEP
- C2#2STORMED OFFUU
- C3#13FOLLOW YOUR HEARTUU
- C4#16GLASSINGUU
- C5#4FREE VERSEUU
- C6#1WHEN IT MATTERSUU
- C7#5CAMPHORUU
- C8#9GLOBAL UNRESTUU
- C9#7ARCANGELAUU
- C10#8SWEET BUTTERCUPUU
- C11#3MADISON MOONUU
- C12#15SPEAK FOR YOURSELFS
- C13#14ZIPLINEC
- C14#12MELEYSC
- C15#10MISS JESSEUU
- C16#11PRACTICAL PATSYC
#6 NEVER GONNA STOP controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #6 NEVER GONNA STOP · hurts #15 SPEAK FOR YOURSELF, #14 ZIPLINE, #12 MELEYS, #11 PRACTICAL PATSY
Someone presses #6 NEVER GONNA STOP. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #15 SPEAK FOR YOURSELF · hurts #6 NEVER GONNA STOP
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#15 SPEAK FOR YOURSELF, #14 ZIPLINE, #12 MELEYS, #11 PRACTICAL PATSY).
Helps #15 SPEAK FOR YOURSELF, #14 ZIPLINE, #12 MELEYS, #11 PRACTICAL PATSY · hurts #6 NEVER GONNA STOP
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | FOLLOW YOUR HEARTSAEZ LUIS | 2.5 | U | Top last fig2026-10-02 KEE 4f 50.00 B MT ft 77/85; 2026-09-22 KEE 4f 51.80 B MT ft 19/19 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | ARNOLD GEORGE R II | Favorite |
| 4 | FREE VERSEORTIZ IRAD JR | 4.0 | U | —2026-10-03 KEE 4f 48.80 B MT ft 22/60; 2026-09-25 SAR 4f 49.00 B D TN fm 4/25 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | COX BRAD H | field |
| 14 | ZIPLINEORTIZ JOSE L | 4.5 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoff2026-10-01 CD 4f 49.80 B MT ft 27/44; 2026-09-23 CD 4f 50.00 B MT ft 20/25 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | CASSE MARK | primed |
| 6 | NEVER GONNA STOPTORRES CRISTIAN A | 5.0 | EP | Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-10-03 KEE 4f 51.00 B MT ft 55/60; 2026-09-25 SAR 4f 49.00 B D TN fm 7/25 · barn: same as last | fMoc75000 → Md Sp Wt | CASSE NORM W | field |
| 2 | STORMED OFFVELAZQUEZ J R | 6.0 | U | Top last pace2026-09-24 CD 4f 48.60 B MT ft 9/33; 2026-08-21 CD 4f 49.00 B MT gd 29/73 · barn: same as last | fAlw250000b → Md Sp Wt | CASSE MARK | field |
| 12 | MELEYSHERNANDEZ B J JR | 6.0 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoff2026-10-04 SKY 4f 48.40 B MT ft 6/15; 2026-09-27 SKY 4f 48.20 B MT ft 4/19 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | WILKES IAN R | primed |
| 1 | WHEN IT MATTERSGAFFALIONE TYLER | 8.0 | U | Sharp work2026-10-01 TP 5f 61.20 B MT ft bullet 1/7; 2026-09-23 TP 4f 48.40 Bg MT ft 3/37 · barn: WALSH BRENDAN P (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | WALSH BRENDAN P | field |
| 5 | CAMPHORORTIZ JOSE L | 8.0 | U | —2026-10-04 KEE 4f 48.80 Bg MT ft 28/70; 2026-09-27 ELP 4f 49.60 B MT ft 36/68 · barn: DEVAUX CHERIE (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | DEVAUX CHERIE | field |
| 9 | GLOBAL UNRESTPRAT FLAVIEN | 8.0 | U | —2026-10-04 CD 4f 49.40 B MT ft 72/125; 2026-09-27 CD 5f 61.20 B MT ft 4/16 · barn: BROWN CHAD C (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | BROWN CHAD C | field |
| 11 | PRACTICAL PATSYSAEZ LUIS | 8.0 | C | Rising figs2026-09-29 ELP 4f 51.20 B MT ft 4/4; 2026-09-22 ELP 4f 51.00 B MT ft 5/7 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | SHARP JOE | field |
| 16 | GLASSINGGAFFALIONE TYLER | 10.0 | U | Sharp work2026-10-04 CD 4f 49.00 B MT ft 43/125; 2026-09-27 CD 3f 35.80 B MT ft bullet 1/25 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | JOSEPH SAFFIE A JR | field |
| 8 | SWEET BUTTERCUPCURTIS BEN | 15.0 | U | —2026-10-02 CD 5f 62.40 B MT ft 6/11; 2026-09-25 CD 4f 49.00 B MT ft 38/69 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | MCCARTHY MICHAEL W | field |
| 15 | SPEAK FOR YOURSELFHAZLEWOOD YEDSIT | 20.0 | S | Rising figs2026-09-26 TP 4f 48.20 B MT ft 10/97; 2026-09-16 TP 4f 48.40 B MT ft 4/63 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | SERVIS JOHN C | field |
| 7 | ARCANGELASHEEHY DANNY | 20.0 | U | Sharp work2026-10-01 TTC 3f 35.40 Bg MT ft bullet 1/11; 2026-09-24 TTC 4f 48.80 B MT ft 3/17 · barn: ENNIS JOHN (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | ENNIS JOHN | field |
| 3 | MADISON MOONCONCEPCION AXEL | 20.0 | U | —2026-10-03 KEE 5f 62.40 B MT ft 21/40; 2026-09-25 ELP 4f 48.80 B MT ft 15/56 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | SHARP JOE | field |
| 10 | MISS JESSEESQUIVEL EMMANUEL | 30.0 | U | —2026-10-03 CD 4f 49.00 B MT gd 41/79; 2026-09-26 CD 4f 47.80 B MT ft 15/155 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | MCPEEK KENNETH G | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEKEE R5 · 2026-10-10 · Turf 1760y · Md Sp Wt · $110,000
- SHAPELone speed #6 NEVER GONNA STOP, moderate pressure projected; closers need a collapse that scenario A says won't come
- CHALKFavorite#13 FOLLOW YOUR HEART · opposable · sprint-to-route, second grass start, route debut — shape and class résumé do not support 2.5 ML
- LEANWinner call#6 NEVER GONNA STOP · rising figs (61→77), led last route, lone speed with a clean path in scenario A; 5 ML is usable but watch the tote
- PRIMED#14 ZIPLINE (rising figs 64→72, 2nd off layoff, LP 77, path only in B/C); #12 MELEYS (rising figs 68→79, 2nd off layoff, but barn's turf/route key numbers are punishing)
- PRICEno overlay — model edge on all non-chalk horses is at or below zero; no non-chalk horse clears an overlay threshold
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — no non-chalk overlay exists; #6 is the pace thesis horse but is not chalk by definition (5 ML, not the shortest), yet the model shows no positive edge and the field is too opaque with six first-timers to force a win ticket
- KILLOff-turf switch voids the shape entirely; any second speed source pressing #6 early turns scenario A into scenario B and opens it for closers; #13 firing at the route trip would justify the short number
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, going report (firm vs soft changes the shape), weather, rider changes not in the PPs
Why
Turf route maiden special weight at Keeneland, 16-runner field, heavy with first-timers and limited PP data — extreme volatility. #6 NEVER GONNA STOP projects as lone speed with rising figs (61→77) and a clean route trip last out, making the shape favorable for the front-runner at 5-1 ML, while the chalk #13 FOLLOW YOUR HEART (2.5 ML) exits a single sprint start and stretches to a route for the first time on grass — a classic soft spot. Both primed horses (#14 ZIPLINE, #12 MELEYS) are closers who need scenario B or C to fire, and MELEYS carries a Wilkes barn whose turf/route/second-off-layoff key numbers are deeply negative (1st at route 2.2% win, turf ROI -1.16).
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | FOLLOW YOUR HEART | 2.5 | 15.1% | 16.8% | +1.7% | 0.71 | U | favoriteTop last fig | — |
| 4 | FREE VERSE | 4.0 | 10.6% | 10.2% | -0.4% | 0.14 | U | — | |
| 14 | ZIPLINE | 4.5 | 9.6% | 10.1% | +0.5% | 0.47 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoff | — |
| 6 | NEVER GONNA STOP | 5.0 | 8.8% | 9.6% | +0.8% | 0.64 | EP | Rising figsLed lastSame trip | — |
| 2 | STORMED OFF | 6.0 | 7.5% | 8.2% | +0.7% | 0.63 | U | Top last pace | — |
| 12 | MELEYS | 6.0 | 7.5% | 8.2% | +0.7% | 0.63 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoff | — |
| 1 | WHEN IT MATTERS | 8.0 | 5.9% | 5.5% | -0.4% | 0.00 | U | Sharp work | — |
| 5 | CAMPHOR | 8.0 | 5.9% | 5.5% | -0.4% | 0.00 | U | — | |
| 9 | GLOBAL UNREST | 8.0 | 5.9% | 5.5% | -0.4% | 0.00 | U | — | |
| 11 | PRACTICAL PATSY | 8.0 | 5.9% | 5.3% | -0.6% | -0.13 | C | Rising figs | — |
| 16 | GLASSING | 10.0 | 4.8% | 4.6% | -0.2% | 0.14 | U | Sharp work | — |
| 8 | SWEET BUTTERCUP | 15.0 | 3.3% | 2.7% | -0.6% | -0.47 | U | — | |
| 15 | SPEAK FOR YOURSELF | 20.0 | 2.5% | 2.6% | +0.1% | 0.43 | S | Rising figs | — |
| 7 | ARCANGELA | 20.0 | 2.5% | 2.3% | -0.2% | 0.00 | U | Sharp work | — |
| 3 | MADISON MOON | 20.0 | 2.5% | 1.9% | -0.6% | -0.90 | U | — | |
| 10 | MISS JESSE | 30.0 | 1.7% | 0.9% | -0.8% | -2.30 | U | — |