FL R8 · 2026-09-29
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find FL R8 · 2026-09-29 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#7 vs #3)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#7HARD PERFORMERE
- C2#3ANMOLOEP
- C3#6RAGTIME PRANKSTERS
- C4#2IM MISCHIEVOUSS
- C5#4PLEXP
- C6#1NEW MATTHEWS
- C7#10LIV HAS RIZZS
- C8#5CONNECT THE BROCKSC
- C9#9RESIDEC
- C10#8JUST A GUYC
Honest pace among #7 HARD PERFORMER and #3 ANMOLO. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #4 PLEX, #6 RAGTIME PRANKSTER, #2 IM MISCHIEVOUS, #1 NEW MATTHEW, #10 LIV HAS RIZZ · hurts #7 HARD PERFORMER, #3 ANMOLO
Pressure: #7 HARD PERFORMER and #3 ANMOLO hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #4 PLEX, #6 RAGTIME PRANKSTER, #2 IM MISCHIEVOUS, #1 NEW MATTHEW, #10 LIV HAS RIZZ · hurts #7 HARD PERFORMER, #3 ANMOLO
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#6 RAGTIME PRANKSTER, #2 IM MISCHIEVOUS, #1 NEW MATTHEW, #10 LIV HAS RIZZ, #5 CONNECT THE BROCKS, #9 RESIDE, #8 JUST A GUY).
Helps #6 RAGTIME PRANKSTER, #2 IM MISCHIEVOUS, #1 NEW MATTHEW, #10 LIV HAS RIZZ, #5 CONNECT THE BROCKS, #9 RESIDE, #8 JUST A GUY · hurts #7 HARD PERFORMER, #3 ANMOLO
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | CONNECT THE BROCKSFLORES JEREMIAS | 3.0 | C | Tag dropSame trip2026-09-12 FL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 9/29; 2026-08-18 FL 4f 50.20 B MT ft 20/32 · barn: same as last | Clm11000n2l → Clm 5000n2l | BARROW PAUL | Favorite |
| 6 | RAGTIME PRANKSTERBERRIOS JOHN C | 3.5 | S | Rising figsTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-05-20 FL 5f 63.20 B MT ft 9/13; 2026-05-12 FL 5f 63.20 B MT ft 17/18 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n2l → Clm 5000n2l | BIRETA DONNA | overlay |
| 3 | ANMOLODE DIEGO EMANUEL | 4.0 | EP | Rising figsSame trip2026-07-11 FL 3f 36.20 B MT ft 3/11; 2026-05-30 FL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 4/28 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n2l → Clm 5000n2l | HUERTAS NIRKA | field |
| 7 | HARD PERFORMERFRET STEVEN | 6.0 | E | Tag dropBarn changeSame trip2026-09-19 FL 5f 65.20 B MT ft 6/6; 2026-07-01 FL 5f 62.40 B MT ft 4/5 · barn: change vs RICHARDS MARVIN | Clm11000n3l → Clm 5000n2l | GUTTERSON KATLYNN | field |
| 10 | LIV HAS RIZZWORRIE ANDRE SHIVNARINE | 8.0 | S | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-08-11 FL 4f 50.20 Bg MT ft 16/27; 2026-07-28 FL 4f 49.20 B MT sy 6/13 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n2l → Clm 5000n2l | ENGLEHART CHRIS | field |
| 1 | NEW MATTHEWRUSSELL C | 8.0 | S | Tag dropSame trip2026-05-21 FL 4f 50.20 B MT ft 7/7; 2026-05-13 FL 4f 52.00 Bg MT sy 11/12 · barn: same as last | Clm11000n2l → Clm 5000n2l | SABINE MICHAEL T | field |
| 9 | RESIDEDAVILA M A JR | 10.0 | C | Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-07-05 SAR 4f 48.80 B MT ft 51/141; 2026-06-13 BEL 4f 48.20 B TT ft 28/127 · barn: same as last | Clm11000n2l → Clm 5000n2l | MURPHY TIMOTHY P | field |
| 2 | IM MISCHIEVOUSELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER | 20.0 | S | Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-09 FL 4f 50.20 B MT ft 11/15; 2026-08-31 FL 3f 35.20 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n2l → Clm 5000n2l | GRUSMARK KARL | primed |
| 4 | PLEXBAEZ JOSE | 20.0 | P | Rising figs2026-08-31 FL 4f 50.40 B MT ft 3/7; 2026-06-27 FL 4f 48.00 B MT ft 5/35 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n2l → Clm 5000n2l | SAUL DANA | field |
| 8 | JUST A GUYGOMEZ O | 20.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-09 FL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 5/15; 2026-05-29 FL 5f 62.20 B MT ft 3/3 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n2l → Clm 5000n2l | BIRETA DONNA | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFL R8 · 2026-09-29 · Dirt 1320y · Clm 5000n2l
- SHAPEDuel likely (#7 E vs #3 EP from posts 7/3); speed bias and inside rail favor early pressure; stalkers/closers inherit if fractions honest
- CHALKFavorite#5 CONNECT THE BROCKS · short/usable · closer style is a mismatch vs speed bias and inside edge; drop from Clm11000 is real but last sprint fig (66) trails #6's 69; not opposable on shape alone but not the value play
- LEANWinner call#6 RAGTIME PRANKSTER · top last fig, top last e1, stalker from post 6, sole overlay, A/B path clear
- PRIMED#2 IM MISCHIEVOUS (rising figs, third-start cycle — inside post helps, but figs 58 lag the field and signal near zero limits confidence)
- PRICE#6 RAGTIME PRANKSTER edge 0.031 (only non-chalk overlay on the sheet)
- PLAYPrice ticket#6 RAGTIME PRANKSTER · min 3.5-1 · WIN — at shorter, pass
- KILLBarn BIRETA wins at 4.8% in claiming/sprints (ROI -1.12); if #7 clears lone and the duel never forms, #6's wide stalking trip costs ground on this rail-biased strip; live tote shortening below floor voids immediately
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches post-ingest, weather/track condition update, rider changes not reflected in PP lines
Why
Dirt sprint claiming (Clm 5000n2l, 1320y, FL) with a 10-horse field and moderate-to-high volatility given cheap class, duel risk, and a strong inside/speed bias. #7 HARD PERFORMER and #3 ANMOLO figure to hook up early while chalk #5 CONNECT THE BROCKS (ML 3, C style from post 5) is the short favorite but is a closer at a speed-biased, inside-favoring track. Primed #2 IM MISCHIEVOUS (rising figs 50→58, third start of the cycle) starts from the inside rail and carries a real LP of 82, but sits at 20-1 ML with a signal near zero and figures well below the field's best; the pace overlay is #6 RAGTIME PRANKSTER, who holds the top last fig (69) and top last e1 (89), is the sole model overlay (edge 0.031), and has a clear stalker path in scenarios A and B — though BIRETA barn is a concern at 4.8% win rate.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | CONNECT THE BROCKS | 3.0 | 19.7% | 20.8% | +1.1% | 0.52 | C | favoriteTag dropSame trip | — |
| 6 | RAGTIME PRANKSTER | 3.5 | 17.5% | 20.6% | +3.1% | 0.95 | S | Rising figsTop last figTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 3 | ANMOLO | 4.0 | 15.7% | 17.3% | +1.6% | 0.69 | EP | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 7 | HARD PERFORMER | 6.0 | 11.2% | 10.8% | -0.4% | 0.15 | E | Tag dropBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 10 | LIV HAS RIZZ | 8.0 | 8.7% | 7.7% | -1.0% | -0.18 | S | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 1 | NEW MATTHEW | 8.0 | 8.7% | 7.7% | -1.1% | -0.23 | S | Tag dropSame trip | — |
| 9 | RESIDE | 10.0 | 7.2% | 5.7% | -1.5% | -0.63 | C | Rising figsTag dropSame trip | — |
| 2 | IM MISCHIEVOUS | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.5% | -0.3% | -0.00 | S | Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 4 | PLEX | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.3% | -0.4% | -0.21 | P | Rising figs | — |
| 8 | JUST A GUY | 20.0 | 3.7% | 2.7% | -1.1% | -1.06 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |