BTP R1 · 2026-10-07
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find BTP R1 · 2026-10-07 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
No dedicated early — closers need collapse
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#4BELLY DANCES
- C2#5BLACK CANDYS
- C3#1FINDAWAYP
- C4#3WE WILL CONQUERS
- C5#2THUNDERING HEARTP
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps #1 FINDAWAY, #2 THUNDERING HEART, #4 BELLY DANCE, #5 BLACK CANDY, #3 WE WILL CONQUER · hurts —
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps #1 FINDAWAY, #2 THUNDERING HEART, #4 BELLY DANCE, #5 BLACK CANDY, #3 WE WILL CONQUER · hurts —
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#4 BELLY DANCE, #5 BLACK CANDY, #3 WE WILL CONQUER).
Helps #4 BELLY DANCE, #5 BLACK CANDY, #3 WE WILL CONQUER · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BELLY DANCECASIQUE UBARDO | 2.0 | S | Tag dropSame trip2026-08-27 CNL 3f 38.80 B MT ft 5/6; 2026-06-20 BTP 3f 37.80 B MT ft 6/11 · barn: same as last | fClm10000n3l → Clm 5000b | OCHOA GERARD | Favorite |
| 5 | BLACK CANDYBLANCHE RISHAWN | 3.0 | S | Rising figsTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-07-24 BTP 3f 36.00 Bg MT ft 2/7; 2026-04-19 TAM 4f 51.60 B MT ft 61/66 · barn: same as last | sOC30000n4l → Clm 5000b | MONDAY KEVIN | overlay |
| 3 | WE WILL CONQUERCORREA YARMARIE L | 2.5 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-06-30 BTP 4f 48.80 B MT ft 4/11; 2026-06-17 BTP 3f 36.60 B MT ft 2/2 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n3l → Clm 5000b | ARMSTRONG STEVE TODD | Favorite |
| 1 | FINDAWAYREYES FRANK | 4.0 | P | 3rd start cycleSame trip2026-09-01 BTP 4f 50.40 B MT ft 2/2; 2026-07-11 HAW 4f 51.60 B MT ft 7/8 · barn: same as last | Clm5000b → Clm 5000b | VILLALOBOS HERIBERTO | field |
| 2 | THUNDERING HEARTHERNANDEZ JANN N | 6.0 | P | Same trip2026-06-20 BTP 4f 49.20 B MT ft 14/28; 2026-06-13 BTP 4f 50.20 B MT ft 30/40 · barn: same as last | Clm5000b → Clm 5000b | HELMBRECHT WILLIAM R | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEBTP R1 · 2026-10-07 · Dirt 1100y Clm 5000b
- SHAPENo early speed — crawl likely; stalkers/pressers sorting it out; bias favors early runners but none project to the front
- CHALKFavorite#4 BELLY DANCE (ML 2) and #3 WE WILL CONQUER (ML 2-1) — both solid on paper but short; no clear pace to stalk makes their style uncertain; usable but short
- LEANWinner call#5 BLACK CANDY — top last fig (75), top E1, rising figs, same trip, and the only model overlay in the field
- PRIMEDnone (two+ computed flags on #5 BLACK CANDY but chalk definition does not apply; #5 is not chalk — however ingest did not tag PRIMED; rising figs + top fig noted)
- PRICE#5 BLACK CANDY — edge 0.061, model 0.268 vs ML-implied 0.206; minimum 3-1
- PLAYPrice ticket#5 BLACK CANDY WIN · min 3-1 (morning line is exactly the floor — pass if board drops below 3-1 at post)
- KILLClass drop from sOC30000 into $5K reads as a dump move; trainer MONDAY KEVIN 0-for-5 at the meet with negative ROI; if tote hammers #5 below 5-2, the overlay evaporates and PLAY reverts to PASS
- MISSINGLive tote (ML is the only odds source — essential here since #5's play depends on holding 3-1 or better), official scratches, weather/track condition update, rider changes
Why
Dirt sprint, $5,000 claiming, five horses all projecting stalker/presser — no dedicated early speed — making a crawl the default scenario and volatility moderate-to-high given the pace vacuum. Both co-favorites (#4 BELLY DANCE at 2, #3 WE WILL CONQUER at 2-1) figure to stalk a pace that may never materialize, which is a legitimate concern, but the one horse with class-drop overlay is #5 BLACK CANDY, who posted the field's best last fig (75) and top E1 in a sprint at this exact distance. #5 BLACK CANDY is the only non-chalk overlay (edge 0.061, model 0.268 vs. ML-implied 0.206) with rising figs and a same-distance trip, though the steep class drop from sOC30000 into $5K claiming warrants scrutiny as a potential "dump" move rather than a "send." ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BELLY DANCE | 2.0 | 27.5% | 28.6% | +1.1% | 0.38 | S | favoriteTag dropSame trip | — |
| 5 | BLACK CANDY | 3.0 | 20.6% | 26.8% | +6.1% | 1.26 | S | Rising figsTop last figTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 3 | WE WILL CONQUER | 2.5 | 23.6% | 23.3% | -0.3% | 0.17 | S | favoriteRising figsSame trip | — |
| 1 | FINDAWAY | 4.0 | 16.5% | 12.3% | -4.2% | -0.96 | P | 3rd start cycleSame trip | — |
| 2 | THUNDERING HEART | 6.0 | 11.8% | 9.0% | -2.8% | -0.86 | P | Same trip | — |