SA R7 · 2026-10-10
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#9 vs #3)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#9GOING NOWHEREEP
- C2#4FAIR QUESTIONP
- C3#3THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCHEP
- C4#2MORDREDS REVENGEUU
- C5#7SIR DAGONETUU
- C6#8JOE VITTORIS
- C7#1THE MAX FACTORUU
- C8#6HES PROOF OF JOYC
- C9#10SIRNAMIC
- C10#5BELLO ROSSOC
Honest pace among #9 GOING NOWHERE and #3 THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCH. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #4 FAIR QUESTION, #8 JOE VITTORI · hurts #9 GOING NOWHERE, #3 THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCH
Pressure: #9 GOING NOWHERE and #3 THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCH hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #4 FAIR QUESTION, #8 JOE VITTORI · hurts #9 GOING NOWHERE, #3 THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCH
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#8 JOE VITTORI, #6 HES PROOF OF JOY, #10 SIRNAMI, #5 BELLO ROSSO).
Helps #8 JOE VITTORI, #6 HES PROOF OF JOY, #10 SIRNAMI, #5 BELLO ROSSO · hurts #9 GOING NOWHERE, #3 THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCH
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SIRNAMIVAN DYKE DRAYDEN | 3.0 | C | Rising figsBarn changeSame trip2026-10-04 SA 4f 47.60 H MT ft 7/24; 2026-09-27 SA 4f 47.20 H MT ft 5/22 · barn: change vs PUYPE MIKE | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | POWELL LEONARD | Favorite |
| 9 | GOING NOWHEREORANTES WELFIN R | 3.5 | EP | —2026-07-09 SA 3f 38.60 H MT ft bullet 1/5; 2026-06-24 SA 5f 64.40 H MT ft 1/3 · barn: same as last | sMd50000 → Md Sp Wt | HANSON RYAN | overlay |
| 4 | FAIR QUESTIONAYUSO ARMANDO | 4.0 | P | Rising figsLed lastTop last fig2026-10-03 SA 4f 48.20 H MT ft 18/64; 2026-09-26 SA 5f 60.60 H MT ft 28/73 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | KORINER BRIAN | overlay |
| 1 | THE MAX FACTORGONZALEZ RICARDO | 3.5 | U | Same trip2026-10-03 SA 5f 60.20 H MT ft 8/71; 2026-09-26 SA 4f 47.40 Hg MT ft 7/74 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | GLATT MARK | field |
| 3 | THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCHKIMURA KAZUSHI | 5.0 | EP | —2026-09-27 SA 3f 36.40 H MT ft 5/18; 2026-08-01 DMR 4f 49.80 H MT ft 76/103 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | O'NEILL DOUG | field |
| 6 | HES PROOF OF JOYHERRERA CRISTOBAL | 12.0 | C | Barn changeSame trip2026-10-03 SA 5f 62.60 H MT ft 52/71; 2026-09-27 SA 5f 62.40 H MT ft 53/70 · barn: change vs RUVALCABA ALBERTO | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | PAPAPRODROMOU GEORGE | field |
| 2 | MORDREDS REVENGEGARCIA EPIFANIO | 30.0 | U | —2026-10-04 SA 4f 49.00 H MT ft 17/24; 2026-09-27 SA 5f 62.20 H MT ft 47/70 · barn: BAKER D WAYNE (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | BAKER D WAYNE | field |
| 7 | SIR DAGONETPEREIRA TIAGO | 30.0 | U | —2026-10-03 SLR 4f 50.20 H MT ft 29/30; 2026-09-26 SLR 3f 36.20 H MT ft 6/19 · barn: DUNHAM DANIEL (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | DUNHAM DANIEL | field |
| 8 | JOE VITTORIESPINOZA V | 30.0 | S | Rising figsBarn changeSame trip2026-10-03 SA 5f 62.00 Hg MT ft 38/71; 2026-09-23 SA 5f 61.40 H MT ft 7/12 · barn: change vs VUOCOLO AL | sMd50000 → Md Sp Wt | VALDEZ JOSE R | field |
| 5 | BELLO ROSSOFREY KYLE | 30.0 | C | Same trip2026-10-03 SA 4f 48.80 H MT ft 38/64; 2026-09-26 SA 5f 61.60 H MT ft 47/73 · barn: same as last | sMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | GALVIN BRENDAN W | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACESA R7 · 2026-10-10 · Turf sprint 1320y · Md Sp Wt $65K
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#9 vs #3); stalkers and pressers favored
- CHALKFavorite#10 SIRNAMI · solid but short · needs the pace to collapse; closer with rising figs and barn change, but 3-1 is no price in a 10-horse MSW
- LEANWinner call#4 FAIR QUESTION · top fig in the field (78), presser style fits A and B, ready signals stack
- PRIMEDnone (sheet says none; #4 flags are computed but sheet PRIMED block is empty — treat as contender)
- PRICE#9 GOING NOWHERE edge 0.022 (3.5-1 ML); #4 FAIR QUESTION edge 0.021 (4-1 ML)
- PLAYPrice ticket#4 FAIR QUESTION · min 4-1 · WIN — if board drops below 7-2, PASS
- KILL#4 weakened badly last (LP 59, e1 98) after leading — if that stamina issue repeats in this sprint, play is dead; barn is 0-for-5 at the meet
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, going description (firm vs. yielding), weather/off-turf switch, rider changes
Why
Turf sprint maiden special weight at Santa Anita, 10-horse field with a duel-pace map and moderate-to-high volatility given the speed confrontation and three first-timers. Two EP horses (#9 GOING NOWHERE, #3 THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCH) project to hook up on the front end, setting up stalkers and pressers — chalk #10 SIRNAMI (3-1 ML) is a closer who needs the pace to boil over, and FAIR QUESTION (#4, 4-1) owns the top last fig (78) in the field, pressing from post 4 with a real path in scenarios A and B. FAIR QUESTION is the one primed price horse with a path: rising figs (55→78), led last, top field fig, and a presser style that slots cleanly behind the projected duel — two or more genuine ready signals plus a pace map that sets up for it. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SIRNAMI | 3.0 | 19.7% | 20.9% | +1.2% | 0.44 | C | favoriteRising figsBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 9 | GOING NOWHERE | 3.5 | 17.5% | 19.7% | +2.2% | 0.67 | EP | — | |
| 4 | FAIR QUESTION | 4.0 | 15.8% | 17.8% | +2.1% | 0.69 | P | Rising figsLed lastTop last fig | — |
| 1 | THE MAX FACTOR | 3.5 | 17.5% | 15.5% | -2.0% | -0.30 | U | Same trip | — |
| 3 | THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCH | 5.0 | 13.2% | 11.1% | -2.1% | -0.49 | EP | — | |
| 6 | HES PROOF OF JOY | 12.0 | 6.1% | 5.8% | -0.3% | 0.01 | C | Barn changeSame trip | — |
| 2 | MORDREDS REVENGE | 30.0 | 2.5% | 2.4% | -0.1% | -0.00 | U | — | |
| 7 | SIR DAGONET | 30.0 | 2.5% | 2.4% | -0.1% | -0.00 | U | — | |
| 8 | JOE VITTORI | 30.0 | 2.5% | 2.3% | -0.2% | -0.13 | S | Rising figsBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 5 | BELLO ROSSO | 30.0 | 2.5% | 1.9% | -0.6% | -0.89 | C | Same trip | — |