SA R9 · 2026-10-10

WATCHT1430y1 price overlay(s)PLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#4 vs #7)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#4FLYOVERE
C2#7BOSS SULLYEP
C3#5STEAK FRIESP
C4#2ON THE WHIMP
C5#1LONESOME STEWS
C6#6BIG CITY LIGHTSC
C7#3CHROMEFLASHC

A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #4 FLYOVER and #7 BOSS SULLY. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #5 STEAK FRIES, #2 ON THE WHIM, #1 LONESOME STEW · hurts #4 FLYOVER, #7 BOSS SULLY

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #4 FLYOVER and #7 BOSS SULLY hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #5 STEAK FRIES, #2 ON THE WHIM, #1 LONESOME STEW · hurts #4 FLYOVER, #7 BOSS SULLY

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 LONESOME STEW, #6 BIG CITY LIGHTS, #3 CHROMEFLASH).

Helps #1 LONESOME STEW, #6 BIG CITY LIGHTS, #3 CHROMEFLASH · hurts #4 FLYOVER, #7 BOSS SULLY

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
1	LONESOME STEWRISPOLI UMBERTO	1.2	S	Rising figsSharp work2026-10-03 SA 5f 59.40 H MT ft bullet 1/71; 2026-09-26 SA 5f 58.80 H MT ft bullet 1/73 · barn: same as last	OC100000n2x → CalFlagHB100k	GLATT MARK	Favorite
4	FLYOVERJARAMILLO E	4.0	E	Led lastSame trip2026-10-04 SA 5f 59.20 H MT ft 2/16; 2026-09-28 SA 5f 59.20 H MT ft 2/10 · barn: same as last	OC100000b → CalFlagHB100k	SADLER JOHN W	overlay
6	BIG CITY LIGHTSKIMURA KAZUSHI	4.5	C	2nd off layoffTop last figSame trip2026-10-04 SA 4f 47.20 H MT ft 5/82; 2026-09-28 SA 5f 60.00 H MT ft 9/53 · barn: same as last	POBrien-G2 → CalFlagHB100k	MANDELLA RICHARD E	field
2	ON THE WHIMPEREIRA TIAGO	6.0	P	3rd start cycleTop last pace2026-10-04 SA 4f 49.60 H MT ft 65/82; 2026-09-27 SA 4f 46.40 H MT ft 2/100 · barn: same as last	OC50000n1x → CalFlagHB100k	PEDERSON DEAN	field
5	STEAK FRIESHERNANDEZ JUAN J	6.0	P	—2026-10-02 SA 4f 48.60 H MT ft 21/48; 2026-09-25 SA 4f 49.80 H MT ft 31/43 · barn: same as last	OC50000n1x → CalFlagHB100k	LEWIS CRAIG A	field
7	BOSS SULLYSMITH M E	8.0	EP	Same trip2026-10-04 SA 4f 46.80 H MT ft 3/82; 2026-09-27 SA 4f 47.60 H MT ft 14/100 · barn: same as last	HarvyPackL200k → CalFlagHB100k	KORINER BRIAN	field
3	CHROMEFLASHGONZALEZ RICARDO	30.0	C	—2026-10-03 SLR 4f 48.40 H MT ft 8/30; 2026-09-26 SLR 5f 59.40 H MT ft 2/29 · barn: same as last	sOC20000n1x → CalFlagHB100k	CAPESTRO PAULA S	field

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed

RACESA R9 · 2026-10-10 · Turf 1430y · CalFlagHB100k
SHAPETwo-speed duel (#4 vs #7) · pressure high · stalkers/pressers inherit in A and B
CHALKFavorite#1 LONESOME STEW 1.2 · solid but untouchable · rising figs, bullet works, shape fits, just way too short
LEANWinner call#1 LONESOME STEW · winner call — shape and form point here, price is the problem
PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse reaches 2+ qualifying flags)
PRICE#4 FLYOVER 4-1 ML · only overlay on the sheet (edge +0.021) · path exists in A if it controls the pace, but LP trend worries and the duel risk are real
PLAYPrice ticketPASS — #4 FLYOVER is the only overlay and the pace scenario it needs (controlling the duel without yielding) is the less likely outcome; edge is thin and the shape more likely benefits the chalk
KILL#7 BOSS SULLY breaks and forces a genuine duel; FLYOVER's late kick (LP 86 last, prior LPs 74/81) collapses and the chalk stalks home regardless
MISSINGlive tote, official scratches post-ingest, going report (firm vs soft changes LP value materially), rider changes

Why

Turf sprint at SA, CalFlag $100k, seven-horse field with a legitimate duel up front and a heavy chalk stalker — moderate-to-high volatility given the two-speed scenario.

Shape is a speed duel (#4 FLYOVER vs #7 BOSS SULLY) that sets up the midpack and stalkers, yet the chalk (#1 LONESOME STEW at 1.2) is the primary beneficiary of that flow — solid favorite, just short.

No horse reaches PRIMED threshold (2+ qualifying flags, non-chalk), but #4 FLYOVER carries the sheet's only overlay at 4-1 ML with a high zPace and a legitimate path in Scenario A if it can control the duel rather than be destroyed by it — though its last start (fig 90, yielded late dueling inside) and a collapsing LP trend are real concerns.

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Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Price overlays

#4 FLYOVER+2.1%ML 4.0Led lastSame trip

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
1	LONESOME STEW	1.2	35.9%	34.4%	-1.6%	-0.00	S	favoriteRising figsSharp work	—
4	FLYOVER	4.0	15.8%	17.9%	+2.1%	0.67	E	Led lastSame trip	—
6	BIG CITY LIGHTS	4.5	14.4%	16.0%	+1.6%	0.60	C	2nd off layoffTop last figSame trip	—
2	ON THE WHIM	6.0	11.3%	11.7%	+0.4%	0.32	P	3rd start cycleTop last pace	—
5	STEAK FRIES	6.0	11.3%	10.3%	-1.0%	-0.19	P		—
7	BOSS SULLY	8.0	8.8%	7.9%	-0.9%	-0.24	EP	Same trip	—
3	CHROMEFLASH	30.0	2.5%	1.8%	-0.7%	-1.16	C		—