DED R3 · 2026-10-09
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#11 #8 #10)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#11GS SOXYE
- C2#8WICKED NO MOE
- C3#10POWERFUL ROSEEP
- C4#2LAYLAH KEYUU
- C5#6MAXIMUM RETURNUU
- C6#9GOLDEN MISTUU
- C7#3RUNNELLIEUU
- C8#5LA CHATONUU
- C9#1LUCILLAUU
- C10#12FREE DEALUU
- C11#7CHARMING GAILUU
- C12#4FEARLESS MAXIMUSC
Honest pace among #11 GS SOXY and #8 WICKED NO MO and #10 POWERFUL ROSE. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #11 GS SOXY, #8 WICKED NO MO, #10 POWERFUL ROSE · hurts #11 GS SOXY, #8 WICKED NO MO, #10 POWERFUL ROSE
Pressure: #11 GS SOXY and #8 WICKED NO MO and #10 POWERFUL ROSE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #4 FEARLESS MAXIMUS · hurts #11 GS SOXY, #8 WICKED NO MO, #10 POWERFUL ROSE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#4 FEARLESS MAXIMUS).
Helps #4 FEARLESS MAXIMUS · hurts #11 GS SOXY, #8 WICKED NO MO, #10 POWERFUL ROSE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LAYLAH KEYHERNANDEZ COLBY J | 2.5 | U | —2026-09-26 LAD 5f 61.00 Bg MT ft 3/7; 2026-09-19 LAD 5f 62.00 B MT ft 2/5 · barn: SCHERER GARY (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | SCHERER GARY | Favorite |
| 8 | WICKED NO MOROSIER C R | 4.0 | E | Rising figsLed lastTop last figSame trip2026-09-29 CCT 4f 49.40 B MT ft 2/69; 2026-09-08 CCT 3f 35.00 B MT ft bullet 1/23 · barn: same as last | fsMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | COURVILLE RICKY | field |
| 11 | GS SOXYCASTILLO ISAAC | 6.0 | E | Rising figsLed lastTop last paceSame trip2026-10-01 DED 4f 54.80 B MT ft 46/49; 2026-09-26 FG 4f 53.60 B MT ft 15/15 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | WEST PATRICIA G | field |
| 6 | MAXIMUM RETURNHERNANDEZ JAVIER ANTONIO | 5.0 | U | Same trip2026-10-01 DED 5f 63.80 Bg MT ft 2/8; 2026-09-24 DED 4f 53.00 B MT ft 17/22 · barn: same as last | fsMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | BRINKMAN BRETT | field |
| 9 | GOLDEN MISTTHORNTON T G | 6.0 | U | —2026-09-29 CCT 4f 50.80 B MT ft 21/69; 2026-09-15 CCT 4f 52.60 Hg MT ft 47/50 · barn: BOURGEOIS KEITH (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | BOURGEOIS KEITH | field |
| 3 | RUNNELLIEARANA KELVIN | 8.0 | U | —2026-09-30 DED 4f 49.60 Bg MT ft 2/21; 2026-09-19 DED 4f 49.80 Bg MT ft 4/12 · barn: AVERETT RONNIE (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | AVERETT RONNIE | field |
| 7 | CHARMING GAILVARGAS JUAN P | 10.0 | U | Sharp workSame trip2026-09-29 DED 5f 65.00 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-09-19 DED 5f 65.20 B MT ft 4/5 · barn: same as last | fsMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | BRILEY LONNIE | field |
| 5 | LA CHATONPEREZ CARLOS | 12.0 | U | —2026-10-01 DED 4f 51.80 Bg MT ft 22/49; 2026-09-19 DED 4f 50.80 Bg MT ft 9/12 · barn: AVERETT RONNIE (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | AVERETT RONNIE | field |
| 1 | LUCILLAHERNANDEZ HARRY | 15.0 | U | —2026-09-26 FG 4f 49.80 B MT ft 5/15; 2026-09-11 EVD 5f 62.40 Bg MT ft 1/2 · barn: DUHON JOSEPH O (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | DUHON JOSEPH O | field |
| 10 | POWERFUL ROSELOZADA CARLOS | 15.0 | EP | Same trip2026-10-01 DED 4f 54.20 B MT ft 45/49; 2026-09-25 DED 3f 39.20 B MT ft 14/15 · barn: same as last | fsMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | POMIER CHASEY DEVILLE | field |
| 12 | FREE DEALMELANCON JANSEN | 20.0 | U | —2026-09-15 CCT 4f 52.20 B MT ft 44/50; 2026-09-08 CCT 4f 50.40 B MT ft 8/36 · barn: WARD DERRICK (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | WARD DERRICK | field |
| 4 | FEARLESS MAXIMUSRODRIGUEZ JOSE LUIS | 15.0 | C | 2nd off layoffTrouble lastSame trip2026-10-02 DED 4f 54.80 B MT ft 65/68; 2026-09-18 EVD 3f 36.20 B MT ft bullet 1/10 · barn: same as last | fsMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | LARROSA JUAN A | primed |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEDED R3 · 2026-10-09 · Dirt 1100y Md Sp Wt
- SHAPEWall of speed (#11 #8 #10) projects a pace duel; stalkers/closers improve in B/C, but most of the field is debut unknowns — extreme volatility
- CHALKFavorite#2 LAYLAH KEY · usable but short · no PPs, works are ordinary, model edge is flat (-0.007); not opposable on shape alone
- LEANWinner call#8 WICKED NO MO · rising fig (58→77), led last, top BRIS fig in field, 4 ML
- PRIMED#4 FEARLESS MAXIMUS (2nd off layoff, trouble last) — path exists only in B/C; model signal -1.24, figs bottomed, thin hold
- PRICEnone — no non-chalk overlay clears the bar; model edge on #8 is positive (0.027) but overlay=false per ingest
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#2 fires debut on a speed-favoring rail; #11 or #8 gate-to-wire without a duel
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes
Why
Dirt sprint maiden special weight at DED, 12 debuts and first-timers, high volatility with a wall of early pace (#11, #8, #10) likely to cook each other. Chalk #2 LAYLAH KEY (2.5 ML) has zero PPs but a worktab that shows steady progression; opposable only because the model finds no edge and the pace map doesn't favor an unknown stylist, but she's not a clear fade — call her short. The only primed horse, #4 FEARLESS MAXIMUS, is a closer (C-style) who checks the 2nd-off-layoff and trouble-last boxes, but the model's signal is deeply negative (-1.24) and the figures are ugly (fig 20 last, eased before that); the pace scenario B/C path exists if the speed hooks up, but this is thin. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LAYLAH KEY | 2.5 | 19.7% | 19.0% | -0.7% | -0.00 | U | favorite | — |
| 8 | WICKED NO MO | 4.0 | 13.8% | 16.5% | +2.7% | 0.87 | E | Rising figsLed lastTop last figSame trip | — |
| 11 | GS SOXY | 6.0 | 9.8% | 12.1% | +2.2% | 0.97 | E | Rising figsLed lastTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 6 | MAXIMUM RETURN | 5.0 | 11.5% | 10.4% | -1.1% | -0.24 | U | Same trip | — |
| 9 | GOLDEN MIST | 6.0 | 9.8% | 9.5% | -0.4% | -0.00 | U | — | |
| 3 | RUNNELLIE | 8.0 | 7.7% | 7.4% | -0.3% | -0.00 | U | — | |
| 7 | CHARMING GAIL | 10.0 | 6.3% | 5.5% | -0.7% | -0.34 | U | Sharp workSame trip | — |
| 5 | LA CHATON | 12.0 | 5.3% | 5.1% | -0.2% | -0.00 | U | — | |
| 1 | LUCILLA | 15.0 | 4.3% | 4.2% | -0.2% | -0.00 | U | — | |
| 10 | POWERFUL ROSE | 15.0 | 4.3% | 4.1% | -0.2% | -0.02 | EP | Same trip | — |
| 12 | FREE DEAL | 20.0 | 3.3% | 3.2% | -0.1% | -0.00 | U | — | |
| 4 | FEARLESS MAXIMUS | 15.0 | 4.3% | 3.0% | -1.3% | -1.24 | C | 2nd off layoffTrouble lastSame trip | — |