FL R2 · 2026-09-29
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find FL R2 · 2026-09-29 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #9 FASHIONABLE KITTY
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#4JAYCE AND LIAMP
- C2#9FASHIONABLE KITTYEP
- C3#2JESSICAS RIDES
- C4#8PESADILLA CHANELP
- C5#1SILENT MELODYP
- C6#3CHARDONNAY DERBYC
- C7#7MAIZE LOVED LAFFYC
- C8#6TROUBLERC
- C9#5TOMAKIS
#9 FASHIONABLE KITTY controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #9 FASHIONABLE KITTY · hurts #2 JESSICAS RIDE, #3 CHARDONNAY DERBY, #7 MAIZE LOVED LAFFY, #6 TROUBLER, #5 TOMAKI
Someone presses #9 FASHIONABLE KITTY. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #4 JAYCE AND LIAM, #8 PESADILLA CHANEL, #1 SILENT MELODY, #2 JESSICAS RIDE, #5 TOMAKI · hurts #9 FASHIONABLE KITTY
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 JESSICAS RIDE, #3 CHARDONNAY DERBY, #7 MAIZE LOVED LAFFY, #6 TROUBLER, #5 TOMAKI).
Helps #2 JESSICAS RIDE, #3 CHARDONNAY DERBY, #7 MAIZE LOVED LAFFY, #6 TROUBLER, #5 TOMAKI · hurts #9 FASHIONABLE KITTY
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | JESSICAS RIDENAVARRO KEVIN | 3.5 | S | Tag dropTop last pace2026-06-17 FL 4f 53.00 B MT ft 23/24; 2026-06-02 FL 4f 52.40 B MT ft 20/21 · barn: same as last | fClm11000n3l → Clm 5000n3l | BUCKLEY JONATHAN B | overlay |
| 3 | CHARDONNAY DERBYCOA KEIBER J | 4.0 | C | Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-09-07 FL 4f 48.20 B MT ft 3/11; 2026-08-29 FL 5f 61.20 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | fClm5000n2l → Clm 5000n3l | GRABOWSKI JOHN A | overlay |
| 1 | SILENT MELODYWORRIE ANDRE SHIVNARINE | 3.0 | P | Tag dropLed lastSame trip2026-09-11 BEL 4f 51.00 B MT ft 71/77; 2026-06-10 DEL 4f 51.20 B MT ft 23/27 · barn: same as last | fClm7500n3l → Clm 5000n3l | ENGLEHART CHRIS | Favorite |
| 4 | JAYCE AND LIAMROHENA J M | 5.0 | P | Same trip2026-09-21 FL 3f 38.00 B MT ft 2/3; 2026-08-28 FL 4f 52.20 B MT ft 5/7 · barn: same as last | fClm5000n3l → Clm 5000n3l | ENGLEHART CHRIS | field |
| 6 | TROUBLERBAEZ JOSE | 6.0 | C | Same trip2026-08-04 SAR 4f 50.20 B MT ft 31/37; 2026-07-25 SAR 4f 50.80 B MT ft 99/111 · barn: same as last | fClm5000n3l → Clm 5000n3l | SAUL DANA | field |
| 9 | FASHIONABLE KITTYCRUZ JOEL | 8.0 | EP | Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-07-11 FL 4f 51.20 B MT ft 11/17; 2026-05-16 OXF 5f 62.20 B MT ft 3/5 · barn: same as last | fClm5000n3l → Clm 5000n3l | D'ALESSANDRO RALPH | field |
| 7 | MAIZE LOVED LAFFYDAVIS JACQUELINE A | 15.0 | C | Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-06-13 FL 5f 63.20 B MT ft 5/7; 2026-05-28 FL 5f 61.20 B MT ft bullet 1/4 · barn: same as last | fClm5000n2l → Clm 5000n3l | MARINO JOSEPH E | field |
| 8 | PESADILLA CHANELDE DIEGO EMANUEL | 15.0 | P | —2026-07-11 FL 4f 47.40 B MT ft bullet 1/17; 2026-07-02 FL 4f 48.00 B MT ft bullet 1/14 · barn: same as last | fClm5000n3l → Clm 5000n3l | HUERTAS NIRKA | field |
| 5 | TOMAKIDIAZ JUAN J | 20.0 | S | Same trip2026-05-27 FL 3f 37.20 B MT ft 6/13; 2026-05-17 FL 3f 38.00 B MT wf 4/6 · barn: same as last | fClm5000n3l → Clm 5000n3l | ARECHE THALIA | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFL R2 · 2026-09-29 · Dirt 1830y · Clm 5000n3l
- SHAPELone speed (#9 outside, post 9 vs inside bias); moderate pressure; closers need pace to melt or B-scenario press to develop
- CHALKFavorite#1 SILENT MELODY · opposable — turf-to-dirt switch, lowest LP in the field (46 last), negative zForm, route record is weak
- LEANWinner call#3 CHARDONNAY DERBY · top fig in field, rising cycle, inside post, same trip, path in B or C
- PRIMED#3 CHARDONNAY DERBY (rising figs + top last fig + same-trip confirmation)
- PRICE#3 CHARDONNAY DERBY ML 4-1 · edge 0.023 · #2 JESSICAS RIDE ML 3.5 · edge 0.021
- PLAYPrice ticket#3 CHARDONNAY DERBY · min 4-1 · WIN
- KILLLone speed clears clean and wire-to-wires; chalk runs its best dirt figure and the 67 doesn't repeat for #3
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/surface condition, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt route, cheap claiming (Clm 5000n3l), nine horses, moderate volatility — this is a noisy bottom-level field where figs cluster in the low-to-mid 60s and the pace map is thin. Lone-speed #9 FASHIONABLE KITTY projects to the front from post 9 against a bias that rewards inside runners, which is a structural problem; chalk #1 SILENT MELODY is a presser dropping from turf/higher tags, but zForm is deeply negative and its late-pace fig (46–50 range) is the lowest in the field for a route. The one horse with a real shape argument is #3 CHARDONNAY DERBY — top last fig (67) in the field, rising cycle (67 from 59), same trip, post 3 inside the bias window, and a closer's path in scenario B or C if the lone speed softens. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | JESSICAS RIDE | 3.5 | 17.6% | 19.7% | +2.1% | 0.68 | S | Tag dropTop last pace | — |
| 3 | CHARDONNAY DERBY | 4.0 | 15.8% | 18.1% | +2.3% | 0.76 | C | Rising figsTop last figSame trip | — |
| 1 | SILENT MELODY | 3.0 | 19.8% | 17.5% | -2.3% | -0.26 | P | favoriteTag dropLed lastSame trip | — |
| 4 | JAYCE AND LIAM | 5.0 | 13.2% | 14.2% | +1.0% | 0.53 | P | Same trip | — |
| 6 | TROUBLER | 6.0 | 11.3% | 10.1% | -1.2% | -0.23 | C | Same trip | — |
| 9 | FASHIONABLE KITTY | 8.0 | 8.8% | 8.5% | -0.3% | 0.07 | EP | Rising figsLed lastSame trip | — |
| 7 | MAIZE LOVED LAFFY | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.9% | -0.0% | 0.21 | C | Rising figsLed lastSame trip | — |
| 8 | PESADILLA CHANEL | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.9% | -0.1% | 0.18 | P | — | |
| 5 | TOMAKI | 20.0 | 3.8% | 2.2% | -1.6% | -1.92 | S | Same trip | — |