FL R1 · 2026-09-28
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#2 #5 #6)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#2MISSIONATTHEGLENEP
- C2#5FROSTELLEEP
- C3#6ALLOFASUDDENLEEEP
- C4#1HAMILTONS REASONP
- C5#3SPEEDSTRES
- C6#4WHITE SPORT COATC
Honest pace among #2 MISSIONATTHEGLEN and #5 FROSTELLE and #6 ALLOFASUDDENLEE. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #1 HAMILTONS REASON, #3 SPEEDSTRE · hurts #2 MISSIONATTHEGLEN, #5 FROSTELLE, #6 ALLOFASUDDENLEE
Pressure: #2 MISSIONATTHEGLEN and #5 FROSTELLE and #6 ALLOFASUDDENLEE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #1 HAMILTONS REASON, #3 SPEEDSTRE · hurts #2 MISSIONATTHEGLEN, #5 FROSTELLE, #6 ALLOFASUDDENLEE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#3 SPEEDSTRE, #4 WHITE SPORT COAT).
Helps #3 SPEEDSTRE, #4 WHITE SPORT COAT · hurts #2 MISSIONATTHEGLEN, #5 FROSTELLE, #6 ALLOFASUDDENLEE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FROSTELLEWORRIE ANDRE SHIVNARINE | 2.0 | EP | Rising figsTop last figSame trip2026-09-11 BEL 4f 47.60 B MT ft 3/77; 2026-08-22 BEL 4f 48.00 B MT ft 14/107 · barn: same as last | OC45000 → Alw 26500n2l | ENGLEHART CHRIS | Favorite |
| 4 | WHITE SPORT COATCOA KEIBER J | 2.5 | C | Rising figsSharp workSame trip2026-09-16 FL 4f 47.40 B MT ft bullet 1/27; 2026-08-18 FL 4f 47.20 B MT ft 2/32 · barn: same as last | Alw26500n2l → Alw 26500n2l | FERRARO M ANTHONY | Favorite |
| 2 | MISSIONATTHEGLENNAVARRO KEVIN | 3.5 | EP | Rising figsLed lastTop last pace2026-09-08 FL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 6/20; 2026-08-12 FL 4f 49.00 B MT ft 12/36 · barn: same as last | rNYSCbClwyB150k → Alw 26500n2l | LECESSE MICHAEL | field |
| 3 | SPEEDSTRECRUZ JOEL | 4.0 | S | Sharp work2026-09-16 FL 4f 47.40 B MT ft bullet 1/27; 2026-08-12 FL 4f 48.00 B MT ft 5/36 · barn: same as last | Alw26500n2l → Alw 26500n2l | FERRARO M ANTHONY | field |
| 1 | HAMILTONS REASONRUSSELL C | 5.0 | P | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-05 FL 4f 49.00 B MT ft 6/32; 2026-08-25 FL 3f 37.20 B MT ft 3/6 · barn: same as last | Alw26500n2l → Alw 26500n2l | BREED DEBRA A | primed |
| 6 | ALLOFASUDDENLEEBAEZ JOSE | 12.0 | EP | Same trip2026-05-09 FL 4f 48.40 B MT ft 5/33; 2026-04-18 FL 4f 52.00 B MT ft 41/43 · barn: same as last | Clm11000n2l → Alw 26500n2l | RIVERA DAVID M | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFL R1 · 2026-09-28 · Dirt 1320y · Alw26500n2l
- SHAPEWall of EP speed (#2 #5 #6) · honest/pressure pace · stalker/presser tier benefits in A/B · speed + outside bias
- CHALKFavorite#5 FROSTELLE (2) — solid; top fig in field, Englehart barn, zSpeed +1.93, rising cycle, but dropping from OC45k and that last SAR fig came on turf with no kick — short and model overlay belongs to chalk, not the sheet
- LEANWinner call#5 FROSTELLE · best fig, best pace position from post 5, pace setup suits an EP that clears
- PRIMED#1 HAMILTONS REASON — rising figs (67→75), 2nd off layoff (47d gap into return), same trip; path compromised by post 1 on an outside-biased track and negative model edge
- PRICEnone — no non-chalk overlays in field
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLIf #2 MISSIONATTHEGLEN (e1 96, highest early energy) guns to the front unchallenged and the pace collapses, the bias could carry a wire-to-wire winner at a price; any scratch of #5 changes the map entirely
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/track variant, rider changes not on PP lines
Why
Dirt sprint allowance (n2l) at FL, six horses, moderate-to-high volatility given a wall of early speed and two co-favorites near even money. Three EP types (#2, #5, #6) project to the front, setting up scenario A/B where the pace is honest and the presser/stalker tier — particularly #1 HAMILTONS REASON — gets a ground-softening setup; the track bias favors early speed from outside posts, which cuts against the lone closer (#4) and the inside presser (#1). #1 HAMILTONS REASON is the designated primed horse (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, same trip), but post 1 is the worst post on a speed-and-outside-biased strip, and model edge is negative (-0.004), so no price overlay exists in the field; the sheet rec is PASS. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FROSTELLE | 2.0 | 25.9% | 32.1% | +6.2% | 1.05 | EP | favoriteRising figsTop last figSame trip | — |
| 4 | WHITE SPORT COAT | 2.5 | 22.2% | 19.6% | -2.7% | -0.31 | C | favoriteRising figsSharp workSame trip | — |
| 2 | MISSIONATTHEGLEN | 3.5 | 17.3% | 17.5% | +0.2% | 0.24 | EP | Rising figsLed lastTop last pace | — |
| 3 | SPEEDSTRE | 4.0 | 15.6% | 13.5% | -2.1% | -0.39 | S | Sharp work | — |
| 1 | HAMILTONS REASON | 5.0 | 13.0% | 12.5% | -0.4% | 0.06 | P | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 6 | ALLOFASUDDENLEE | 12.0 | 6.0% | 4.8% | -1.1% | -0.65 | EP | Same trip | — |