MNR R5 · 2026-09-27
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#5 vs #10)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#5A ROAD TO CONQUESTE
- C2#10CHIVA LOCAEP
- C3#3PASSIONATE ANGERUU
- C4#8GOLDEN SIPSUU
- C5#4ANGEL LIFEP
- C6#7HOUSE MUSICUU
- C7#6HALO DANZIGUU
- C8#11MILAS TEMPERUU
- C9#1LUCKY LORSIEUU
- C10#2TIPTOETAPPINUU
- C11#9PICK AND ROLLUU
Honest pace among #5 A ROAD TO CONQUEST and #10 CHIVA LOCA. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #4 ANGEL LIFE · hurts #5 A ROAD TO CONQUEST, #10 CHIVA LOCA
Pressure: #5 A ROAD TO CONQUEST and #10 CHIVA LOCA hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #4 ANGEL LIFE · hurts #5 A ROAD TO CONQUEST, #10 CHIVA LOCA
Chaos: the map fails and the race becomes a scramble. No dedicated closer on the file.
Helps — · hurts #5 A ROAD TO CONQUEST, #10 CHIVA LOCA
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | ANGEL LIFEBLANCHE RISHAWN | 2.0 | P | Rising figsSame trip2026-07-24 MER 5f 64.00 B MT ft 2/2; 2026-03-31 TDD 4f 50.60 Bg MT sl 4/7 · barn: same as last | fMd40000 → Md Sp Wt | KENDRICK MARK A | Favorite |
| 5 | A ROAD TO CONQUESTLEON JOSE A | 4.0 | E | Rising figsLed lastTop last paceSame trip2026-08-19 MNR 4f 49.20 B MT ft 7/17; 2026-08-12 MNR 3f 36.80 BgD MT wf bullet 1/7 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | VIANDS GREGORY | overlay |
| 10 | CHIVA LOCABATISTA LUIS ALBERTO | 7.0 | EP | Rising figsTrouble lastLed lastTop last figSame trip2026-09-11 BTP 4f 48.00 Bg MT ft bullet 1/5; 2026-08-27 CNL 4f 49.80 B MT ft 11/16 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | DONJUAN SERGIO | primed |
| 7 | HOUSE MUSICNEGRON LUIS | 5.0 | U | —2026-09-06 MNR 4f 47.60 B MT ft 1/3; 2026-08-19 MNR 4f 48.80 Bg MT ft 5/17 · barn: BERNARDINI JAY P (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | BERNARDINI JAY P | field |
| 3 | PASSIONATE ANGERWEATHERLY BAILEY | 8.0 | U | Same trip2026-09-02 MNR 3f 36.00 B MT ft bullet 1/8; 2026-08-24 MNR 4f 48.00 B MT ft bullet 1/7 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | REED ERIC R | field |
| 2 | TIPTOETAPPINGARCIA F | 10.0 | U | Same trip2026-09-15 MNR 4f 52.20 Bg MT ft 3/5; 2026-09-12 MNR 4f 52.20 BgD MT gd 9/10 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | VIANDS GREGORY | field |
| 8 | GOLDEN SIPSRIVERA L R | 12.0 | U | Same trip2026-09-05 TDN 5f 62.80 Bg MT ft bullet 1/4; 2026-08-27 TDN 4f 49.20 Bg MT ft 6/27 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | RIVERA NESTOR R | field |
| 1 | LUCKY LORSIEOLIVEROS CHARLE | 15.0 | U | Same trip2026-09-02 MNR 3f 37.20 B MT ft 3/8; 2026-08-28 MNR 3f 37.80 B MT ft 3/6 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | REED ERIC R | field |
| 6 | HALO DANZIGGONZALEZ KEVIN | 20.0 | U | —2026-09-16 MNR 4f 53.40 Bg MT ft 13/13; 2026-09-11 MNR 4f 50.20 B MT ft 2/9 · barn: JOHNSON JENNIFER A (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | JOHNSON JENNIFER A | field |
| 9 | PICK AND ROLLYARANGA Y | 15.0 | U | Barn changeSame trip2026-08-20 TTC 4f 49.00 Bg MT ft 8/18; 2026-08-13 TTC 4f 49.40 Bg MT ft 7/13 · barn: change vs ENNIS JOHN | fMd40000 → Md Sp Wt | GODSEY C MARSHALL | field |
| 11 | MILAS TEMPERDIAZ ANGEL I | 20.0 | U | Barn changeSame trip2026-08-04 TDN 4f 52.00 Bg MT ft 7/8; 2026-07-02 TDN 3f 38.40 Bg MT ft 5/14 · barn: change vs HIGHAM NICOLE | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | RIVERA NESTOR R | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEMNR R5 · 2026-09-27 · Dirt 1100y · Md Sp Wt
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#5 vs #10); speed+inside-rail bias favors the stalker directly off the pace; duel likely softens both leaders
- CHALKFavorite#4 ANGEL LIFE · solid · presser from post 4, rising figs, best pace path into a duel, but 2-1 ML is a pass on price
- LEANWinner call#4 ANGEL LIFE · best-fit winner given pace scenario A/B and rising cycle
- PRIMED#10 CHIVA LOCA [rising_figs, trouble_last, led_last, top_last_fig, same_trip] — five flags; needs #5 to hook up and soften
- PRICE#10 CHIVA LOCA (7-1 ML, edge 0.024) · #5 A ROAD TO CONQUEST (4-1 ML, edge 0.032)
- PLAYPrice ticket#10 CHIVA LOCA · win · min 6-1 · if shorter, PASS
- KILLBias at post 10 is punishing on this speed/inside track; if #5 clears without a duel, #10 is cooked; lugging last out is a behavior flag
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt sprint maiden at MNR with 11 going 1100y — moderate-to-high volatility given the large maiden field, two debut runners, and one horse posting a fig of -19 last out. Shape is a two-speed duel (#5 A ROAD TO CONQUEST vs #10 CHIVA LOCA) with a speed/inside-rail bias that should reward the stalker right behind them; chalk #4 ANGEL LIFE is a presser from post 4 with rising figs and a clean pace path into the expected duel — solid at the price but short. #10 CHIVA LOCA ships in from BTP with five ready flags (rising figs +15, trouble last — dueled, faltered, lugged — led at the call, top fig in field at 55, same trip), a 9/11/26 bullet work 1/5 at BTP, and a pace path in both A and B as the co-speed that could outlast #5 if the duel is real; the bias (inside/speed) and post 10 are negatives, but the model still prints an overlay at 7-1 ML. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | ANGEL LIFE | 2.0 | 25.2% | 25.5% | +0.3% | 0.36 | P | favoriteRising figsSame trip | — |
| 5 | A ROAD TO CONQUEST | 4.0 | 15.1% | 18.3% | +3.2% | 1.07 | E | Rising figsLed lastTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 10 | CHIVA LOCA | 7.0 | 9.4% | 11.8% | +2.4% | 1.20 | EP | Rising figsTrouble lastLed lastTop last figSame trip | — |
| 7 | HOUSE MUSIC | 5.0 | 12.6% | 11.6% | -0.9% | -0.00 | U | — | |
| 3 | PASSIONATE ANGER | 8.0 | 8.4% | 8.5% | +0.1% | 0.38 | U | Same trip | — |
| 2 | TIPTOETAPPIN | 10.0 | 6.9% | 5.6% | -1.2% | -0.48 | U | Same trip | — |
| 8 | GOLDEN SIPS | 12.0 | 5.8% | 5.5% | -0.3% | 0.08 | U | Same trip | — |
| 1 | LUCKY LORSIE | 15.0 | 4.7% | 4.2% | -0.5% | -0.18 | U | Same trip | — |
| 6 | HALO DANZIG | 20.0 | 3.6% | 3.3% | -0.3% | -0.00 | U | — | |
| 9 | PICK AND ROLL | 15.0 | 4.7% | 2.8% | -1.9% | -1.75 | U | Barn changeSame trip | — |
| 11 | MILAS TEMPER | 20.0 | 3.6% | 2.8% | -0.8% | -0.69 | U | Barn changeSame trip | — |