FL R3 · 2026-09-28
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find FL R3 · 2026-09-28 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#1 vs #6)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#1GOOD MISSIONEP
- C2#6PRINCESS AZARAEP
- C3#4DANCIN JANES
- C4#3TENACIOUS CHILDC
- C5#7GOING FOR GLORYC
- C6#2BUSTLING TOWNC
- C7#5BIG JACKIEC
Honest pace among #1 GOOD MISSION and #6 PRINCESS AZARA. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #4 DANCIN JANE · hurts #1 GOOD MISSION, #6 PRINCESS AZARA
Pressure: #1 GOOD MISSION and #6 PRINCESS AZARA hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #4 DANCIN JANE · hurts #1 GOOD MISSION, #6 PRINCESS AZARA
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#4 DANCIN JANE, #3 TENACIOUS CHILD, #7 GOING FOR GLORY, #2 BUSTLING TOWN, #5 BIG JACKIE).
Helps #4 DANCIN JANE, #3 TENACIOUS CHILD, #7 GOING FOR GLORY, #2 BUSTLING TOWN, #5 BIG JACKIE · hurts #1 GOOD MISSION, #6 PRINCESS AZARA
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOOD MISSIONFLORES JEREMIAS | 3.0 | EP | Class dropTop last paceSame trip2026-09-05 FL 4f 47.20 B MT ft bullet 1/32; 2026-07-24 FL 5f 62.20 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | fAlw26500n2l → Clm 11000n2l | BARROW PAUL | pace + drop |
| 3 | TENACIOUS CHILDGOMEZ O | 2.5 | C | Tag dropBarn changeSame trip2026-09-21 FL 4f 51.20 B MT ft 5/5; 2026-09-04 BEL 4f 48.80 B MT ft 35/58 · barn: change vs WEAVER GEORGE | fClm20000n2lc → Clm 11000n2l | RICE LINDA | Favorite |
| 5 | BIG JACKIEVIVES SOFIA | 3.5 | C | Same trip2026-08-26 FL 3f 38.20 B MT ft 4/5; 2026-08-12 FL 5f 64.00 B MT ft 7/10 · barn: same as last | fClm11000n2l → Clm 11000n2l | FERRARO MICHAEL | field |
| 4 | DANCIN JANEPEREZ L E | 4.0 | S | 2nd off layoffClass dropSame trip2026-08-18 FL 4f 50.20 B MT ft 24/32; 2026-08-12 FL 5f 62.00 B MT ft 2/10 · barn: same as last | fAlw26500n2l → Clm 11000n2l | FERRARO MICHAEL | primed |
| 7 | GOING FOR GLORYRUSSELL C | 6.0 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-08 FL 3f 36.20 B MT ft 2/7; 2026-08-11 FL 4f 47.40 B MT ft bullet 1/27 · barn: same as last | fClm11000n2l → Clm 11000n2l | BARTLETT WILLIAM H | primed |
| 2 | BUSTLING TOWNGUTIERREZ REYLU | 8.0 | C | Led lastSame trip2026-09-19 SAR 4f 50.00 B MT ft 44/55; 2026-09-12 SAR 4f 50.40 B MT ft 37/48 · barn: same as last | fMd11000 → Clm 11000n2l | BOND HAROLD JAMES | field |
| 6 | PRINCESS AZARAROHENA J M | 12.0 | EP | Barn changeSame trip2026-09-15 FL 4f 49.20 B MT ft 13/24; 2026-09-06 FL 3f 40.00 B MT ft 2/2 · barn: change vs BERNARDINI JAY P | fClm7500n2x → Clm 11000n2l | HOUSEL TAMARA | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEFL R3 · 2026-09-28 · D 1320y · Clm 11000n2l
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#1 vs #6) sets up stalker/closer; bias favors early speed and outside posts — tension between the shape and the bias
- CHALKFavorite#3 TENACIOUS CHILD 2.5 · fade · closer with negative model edge, cold barn (RICE at -1.68 ROI meet), last dirt fig only 56 off a route, model says 20% vs 22% market
- LEANWinner call#1 GOOD MISSION · top E1 in the field, sharp bullet work 9/5 (1/32), real class drop from fAlw26500n2l, post 1 is a concern on a speed/outside bias but the pace advantage is genuine
- PRIMED#4 DANCIN JANE [2nd off layoff, class drop, same trip — Ferraro barn 30% win 2nd off layoff, ROI +0.21]; #7 GOING FOR GLORY [rising figs 59→60→61, 2nd off layoff — but Bartlett barn 6.45% win 2nd off layoff, ROI -0.53, figs are modest]
- PRICE#1 GOOD MISSION · ML 3 · edge 0.076 (only non-chalk overlay on the sheet)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — #1 GOOD MISSION is the only overlay and it is chalk (ML 3, shortest in field); no non-chalk horse carries a model edge
- KILL#1 GOOD MISSION clears and wins uncontested (voids the duel scenario entirely); #4 DANCIN JANE's fig-9 return suggests she may not be fully ready; live tote could reveal #3 bet down hard
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition update, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt sprint claimer at Finger Lakes, 7 furlongs, N2L condition, moderate-to-high volatility on a speed-biased outside track with a thin field. Two EP types (#1 GOOD MISSION, #6 PRINCESS AZARA) project a duel at the front; chalk #3 TENACIOUS CHILD is a closer dropping from a failed route sequence with negative model edge and a cold new barn. #4 DANCIN JANE is primed (2nd off a 273-day layoff, steep class drop from fAlw into Clm 11k, same trip) and sits stalker in a race where the duel scenario is the most likely shape — her path in A and B is clean through the middle of the field, though her last fig (9) was a disaster and zForm is the worst in the field.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Pace + drop
Price overlays
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOOD MISSION | 3.0 | 19.4% | 27.0% | +7.6% | 1.46 | EP | Class dropTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 3 | TENACIOUS CHILD | 2.5 | 22.2% | 20.2% | -2.0% | -0.24 | C | favoriteTag dropBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 5 | BIG JACKIE | 3.5 | 17.2% | 16.3% | -0.9% | -0.08 | C | Same trip | — |
| 4 | DANCIN JANE | 4.0 | 15.5% | 12.7% | -2.8% | -0.66 | S | 2nd off layoffClass dropSame trip | — |
| 7 | GOING FOR GLORY | 6.0 | 11.1% | 10.4% | -0.7% | -0.12 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 2 | BUSTLING TOWN | 8.0 | 8.6% | 7.9% | -0.8% | -0.23 | C | Led lastSame trip | — |
| 6 | PRINCESS AZARA | 12.0 | 6.0% | 5.6% | -0.4% | -0.14 | EP | Barn changeSame trip | — |