RP R1 · 2026-10-09
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find RP R1 · 2026-10-09 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#1 #11 #3)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#5TUCKER FLATSP
- C2#1VORPALEP
- C3#11DOWN THE ISLANDSEP
- C4#3ABSAROKAE
- C5#2KATONAHS
- C6#8VESTESC
- C7#10SOLEVOC
- C8#7CUPIDS THUNDERS
- C9#4FIGHTN READYC
- C10#6MULTIPLE OPINIONSC
- C11#9BOBBY BRINKLEYC
Honest pace among #1 VORPAL and #11 DOWN THE ISLANDS and #3 ABSAROKA. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #5 TUCKER FLATS, #2 KATONAH, #7 CUPIDS THUNDER · hurts #1 VORPAL, #11 DOWN THE ISLANDS, #3 ABSAROKA
Pressure: #1 VORPAL and #11 DOWN THE ISLANDS and #3 ABSAROKA hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #5 TUCKER FLATS, #2 KATONAH, #7 CUPIDS THUNDER · hurts #1 VORPAL, #11 DOWN THE ISLANDS, #3 ABSAROKA
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 KATONAH, #8 VESTES, #10 SOLEVO, #7 CUPIDS THUNDER, #4 FIGHTN READY, #6 MULTIPLE OPINIONS, #9 BOBBY BRINKLEY).
Helps #2 KATONAH, #8 VESTES, #10 SOLEVO, #7 CUPIDS THUNDER, #4 FIGHTN READY, #6 MULTIPLE OPINIONS, #9 BOBBY BRINKLEY · hurts #1 VORPAL, #11 DOWN THE ISLANDS, #3 ABSAROKA
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SOLEVOASMUSSEN ERIK | 3.0 | C | Rising figs3rd start cycleTag dropTop last figTop last pace2026-09-21 LAD 4f 51.40 B MT ft 22/27; 2026-09-03 TP 3f 38.40 B MT ft 8/8 · barn: same as last | Clm7500n3l → Clm 5000b | ASMUSSEN STEVEN M | Favorite |
| 2 | KATONAHHUCKABY RONNIE | 4.0 | S | 3rd start cycleClass dropSame trip2026-09-05 RP 5f 60.00 Hg MT ft bullet 1/29; 2026-08-07 RP 4f 48.60 Hg MT ft 5/80 · barn: same as last | Alw42000b → Clm 5000b | EVANS JUSTIN | primed |
| 9 | BOBBY BRINKLEYDIAZ RENE | 5.0 | C | Tag dropSame trip2026-08-12 RP 3f 39.40 H MT ft 12/17; 2026-05-28 LS 4f 48.80 B MT ft 9/37 · barn: same as last | Clm10000b → Clm 5000b | CALDWELL J R | field |
| 8 | VESTESQUINONEZ B | 10.0 | C | 2nd off layoffClass drop2026-09-18 RP 4f 54.80 H MT ft 42/42; 2026-08-27 RP 4f 51.00 H MT ft 22/38 · barn: same as last | Alw39000n1x → Clm 5000b | FERRELL JORY | primed |
| 1 | VORPALALVAREZ JOSE L | 8.0 | EP | —2026-09-26 RP 4f 49.20 H MT ft 24/69; 2026-09-16 RP 5f 60.40 H MT ft bullet 1/9 · barn: same as last | OC10000 → Clm 5000b | RARICK WADE | field |
| 11 | DOWN THE ISLANDSFRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI | 8.0 | EP | Barn change2026-08-07 RP 4f 51.60 H MT ft 65/80; 2026-07-31 RP 4f 51.40 H MT ft 48/51 · barn: change vs ORTIZ ISAIAH | Clm5000bc → Clm 5000b | DAVIDSON SARAH NICOLE | field |
| 3 | ABSAROKABACON TYLER W | 6.0 | E | —2026-05-24 PRM 4f 48.60 B MT ft 7/22; 2026-05-13 PRM 4f 51.20 B MT ft 13/13 · barn: same as last | sClm5000 → Clm 5000b | FLORES OSCAR | field |
| 4 | FIGHTN READYPADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER | 20.0 | C | 3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip2026-10-03 RP 3f 39.60 H MT ft 29/31; 2026-08-25 RP 3f 38.00 H MT ft 9/16 · barn: same as last | Clm10000n3l → Clm 5000b | PETALINO JOE | field |
| 7 | CUPIDS THUNDERHAMILTON WESTON | 20.0 | S | Tag dropSame trip2026-08-08 RP 4f 50.60 H MT ft 69/112; 2026-04-19 WRD 4f 49.20 H MT ft 1/1 · barn: same as last | Clm10000b → Clm 5000b | SWAN PATRICK E | field |
| 5 | TUCKER FLATSGONCALVES LEANDRO R | 20.0 | P | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-16 WRC 4f 48.40 B MT ft 2/6; 2026-09-09 WRC 4f 52.40 B MT ft 4/4 · barn: same as last | Clm5000b → Clm 5000b | GUNTER MICHAEL C | field |
| 6 | MULTIPLE OPINIONSVAZQUEZ R A | 20.0 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoff2026-09-05 RP 5f 60.80 H MT ft 8/29; 2026-08-29 RP 5f 61.80 H MT ft 5/24 · barn: same as last | Clm5000b → Clm 5000b | CASTER BOYD | primed |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACERP R1 · 2026-10-09 · Dirt 1760y · Clm 5000b
- SHAPEWall of early speed (#1 #11 #3) projects an honest-to-pressure pace; stalkers and closers from inside posts benefit; posts 8+ winless in 60-day bias
- CHALKFavorite#10 SOLEVO · opposable · top fig and top LP in the field but draws post 10 into a zero-win post zone; closer that needs pace help it should get yet gives up the inside to rivals who can sit and pounce
- LEANWinner call#2 KATONAH · best price overlay, inside post, route-to-route, primed cycle, duel sets up the stalk-and-kick at 4-1 ML
- PRIMED#2 KATONAH (3rd start cycle + class drop + same trip + bullet work); #8 VESTES (2nd off layoff + class drop, but post 8 and trainer ROI brutal — note only); #6 MULTIPLE OPINIONS (rising figs + 2nd off layoff, but no model edge and sprint-to-route concern)
- PRICE#2 KATONAH edge 0.048 — only named overlay; floor 4-1 (ML), pass shorter
- PLAYPrice ticket#2 KATONAH · win · minimum 4-1
- KILLPace duel doesn't materialize (lone speed clears, SOLEVO's fig wins clean from off the pace); KATONAH's recent figs (71, 73) trail SOLEVO's 74 if the race runs honestly rather than setting up the stalk; live tote compresses KATONAH below floor
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition update, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt route, cheap claimer (Clm 5000b, 1760y), field of 11 with a wall of early speed creating an honest-to-pressure pace scenario and moderate-to-high volatility from the multi-horse duel likely to develop. Three need-the-lead types (#1, #11, #3) are projected near the front, chalk #10 SOLEVO is a closer with the top fig (74) and best late pace (83) dropping from $7,500, and posts 8+ have zero wins in the 60-day bias sample making SOLEVO's post 10 a structural concern. #2 KATONAH is primed at post 2 — third start of the cycle, massive class drop from Alw42000b, 5f bullet work (1/29) on file, route-to-route same trip, model edge of 0.048 (the only named overlay), and an inside post that the rail bias rewards in a race where the duel should set up closers.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SOLEVO | 3.0 | 19.8% | 22.5% | +2.7% | 0.73 | C | favoriteRising figs3rd start cycleTag dropTop last figTop last pace | — |
| 2 | KATONAH | 4.0 | 15.8% | 20.7% | +4.8% | 1.28 | S | 3rd start cycleClass dropSame trip | — |
| 9 | BOBBY BRINKLEY | 5.0 | 13.2% | 12.4% | -0.8% | -0.02 | C | Tag dropSame trip | — |
| 8 | VESTES | 10.0 | 7.2% | 8.0% | +0.8% | 0.65 | C | 2nd off layoffClass drop | — |
| 1 | VORPAL | 8.0 | 8.8% | 7.8% | -1.0% | -0.26 | EP | — | |
| 11 | DOWN THE ISLANDS | 8.0 | 8.8% | 7.3% | -1.5% | -0.54 | EP | Barn change | — |
| 3 | ABSAROKA | 6.0 | 11.3% | 7.1% | -4.2% | -1.64 | E | — | |
| 4 | FIGHTN READY | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.8% | -0.0% | 0.20 | C | 3rd start cycleTag dropSame trip | — |
| 7 | CUPIDS THUNDER | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.6% | -0.2% | -0.01 | S | Tag dropSame trip | — |
| 5 | TUCKER FLATS | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.5% | -0.3% | -0.12 | P | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 6 | MULTIPLE OPINIONS | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.3% | -0.4% | -0.27 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoff | — |