TDN R5 · 2026-09-30
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find TDN R5 · 2026-09-30 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
No dedicated early — closers need collapse
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#3NAVAS GOLDP
- C2#1PERFECT DATES
- C3#5GAGAS GIRLP
- C4#4STRIKING LADYP
- C5#6WONDER WORLDC
- C6#2DERBY DAY KISSS
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps #3 NAVAS GOLD, #5 GAGAS GIRL, #4 STRIKING LADY, #1 PERFECT DATE, #2 DERBY DAY KISS · hurts —
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps #3 NAVAS GOLD, #5 GAGAS GIRL, #4 STRIKING LADY, #1 PERFECT DATE, #2 DERBY DAY KISS · hurts —
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 PERFECT DATE, #6 WONDER WORLD, #2 DERBY DAY KISS).
Helps #1 PERFECT DATE, #6 WONDER WORLD, #2 DERBY DAY KISS · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NAVAS GOLDRIVERA L R | 1.0 | P | Trouble lastTop last figSame trip2026-08-05 TDN 4f 47.00 B MT gd bullet 1/18; 2026-07-26 TDN 4f 48.00 B MT ft bullet 1/22 · barn: same as last | fAlw31000n1x → Alw 28000n1x | JACKSON JAMES R | Favorite |
| 4 | STRIKING LADYSIMPSON JASON | 2.5 | P | Rising figsLed lastSame trip2026-09-05 TDN 5f 63.20 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-08-27 TDN 4f 48.00 B MT ft bullet 1/27 · barn: same as last | fAlw31000n1x → Alw 28000n1x | BAILEY RICARDO | Favorite |
| 5 | GAGAS GIRLBOWEN ROCCO | 3.0 | P | Rising figs2nd off layoffLed lastSame trip2026-09-17 TDN 4f 48.60 B MT ft 4/18; 2026-09-06 TDN 4f 50.60 B MT ft 12/14 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Alw 28000n1x | HAMM TIMOTHY | primed |
| 6 | WONDER WORLDHOUGHTON T D | 10.0 | C | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip2026-09-17 TDN 5f 61.40 B MT ft 3/5; 2026-08-11 TDN 3f 39.20 B MT ft 2/3 · barn: same as last | fsClm16000b → Alw 28000n1x | BAILEY RICARDO | field |
| 1 | PERFECT DATEFELICIANO R | 12.0 | S | —2026-08-17 TDN 4f 51.40 B MT ft 13/14; 2026-06-02 TDN 4f 50.80 B MT ft 7/9 · barn: same as last | fsClm50000 → Alw 28000n1x | POOLE JOE M | field |
| 2 | DERBY DAY KISSCEDILLO MAURO | 15.0 | S | Same trip2026-06-20 TDN 5f 61.20 B MT ft bullet 1/4; 2026-06-11 TDN 4f 48.40 B MT ft bullet 1/32 · barn: same as last | fAlw31000n1x → Alw 28000n1x | CLINE ROBERT C | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACETDN R5 · 2026-09-30 · Dirt 1760y Alw 28000n1x
- SHAPENo dedicated early; pressers control at crawl fractions; bias favors inside and early; closers face a no-target scenario
- CHALKFavorite#3 NAVAS GOLD · solid · top fig, bullet works, trouble last, inside post, pace path in A and B, bias-aligned
- LEANWinner call#3 NAVAS GOLD
- PRIMED#5 GAGAS GIRL (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, led last — path exists in A/B but class jump from maiden limits ceiling)
- PRICEnone — no non-chalk horse posts a positive model overlay
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLScratch of NAVAS GOLD; a surprise early type turns the crawl map into a duel and drains her; off track that scrambles fractions
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches post-ingest, weather/surface condition, rider changes
Why
Dirt two-turn route at N1X level, six-horse field, moderate volatility — all pressers and stalkers, no dedicated early speed, which sets up a slow-crawl scenario that favors whichever presser takes command and gets a clean trip. #3 NAVAS GOLD is the chalk at ML 1, sitting on the top fig in the field (82), bullet works, trouble trip last out, and a pace path straight through scenarios A and B — that horse is solid. #5 GAGAS GIRL is flagged primed (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, led last, same trip) but steps up from maiden company into N1X, figures are 10-15 points shy of NAVAS GOLD, and the model has her as a negative overlay at ML 3.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NAVAS GOLD | 1.0 | 39.5% | 47.7% | +8.2% | 1.25 | P | favoriteTrouble lastTop last figSame trip | — |
| 4 | STRIKING LADY | 2.5 | 22.6% | 20.4% | -2.2% | 0.09 | P | favoriteRising figsLed lastSame trip | — |
| 5 | GAGAS GIRL | 3.0 | 19.7% | 16.2% | -3.6% | -0.31 | P | Rising figs2nd off layoffLed lastSame trip | — |
| 6 | WONDER WORLD | 10.0 | 7.2% | 7.2% | +0.1% | 0.53 | C | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 1 | PERFECT DATE | 12.0 | 6.1% | 5.7% | -0.4% | 0.25 | S | — | |
| 2 | DERBY DAY KISS | 15.0 | 4.9% | 2.8% | -2.2% | -1.81 | S | Same trip | — |