CT R4 · 2026-10-09
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#1 #5 #3 #7 #8 #4)
Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#1HEAVEN STREETE
- C2#5RUN OF THE HOUSEE
- C3#3SISYPHUSE
- C4#7LARZEP
- C5#8SHARPASADIAMONDEP
- C6#4ITS SIZZLING TIMEEP
- C7#2YOUTHINKTHATSFUNNYP
- C8#6BLANCHES MULEC
- C9#10TETCHEDS
- C10#9GLINTC
Honest pace among #1 HEAVEN STREET and #5 RUN OF THE HOUSE and #3 SISYPHUS and #7 LARZ and #8 SHARPASADIAMOND and #4 ITS SIZZLING TIME. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #2 YOUTHINKTHATSFUNNY, #10 TETCHED · hurts #1 HEAVEN STREET, #5 RUN OF THE HOUSE, #3 SISYPHUS, #7 LARZ, #8 SHARPASADIAMOND, #4 ITS SIZZLING TIME
Pressure: #1 HEAVEN STREET and #5 RUN OF THE HOUSE and #3 SISYPHUS and #7 LARZ and #8 SHARPASADIAMOND and #4 ITS SIZZLING TIME hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #2 YOUTHINKTHATSFUNNY, #10 TETCHED · hurts #1 HEAVEN STREET, #5 RUN OF THE HOUSE, #3 SISYPHUS, #7 LARZ, #8 SHARPASADIAMOND, #4 ITS SIZZLING TIME
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#6 BLANCHES MULE, #10 TETCHED, #9 GLINT).
Helps #6 BLANCHES MULE, #10 TETCHED, #9 GLINT · hurts #1 HEAVEN STREET, #5 RUN OF THE HOUSE, #3 SISYPHUS, #7 LARZ, #8 SHARPASADIAMOND, #4 ITS SIZZLING TIME
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HEAVEN STREETBOCACHICA ARNALDO | 2.5 | E | Led lastSame trip2026-09-19 PEN 4f 48.00 B MT ft 4/31; 2026-09-11 PEN 4f 48.60 B MT ft 2/15 · barn: same as last | OC10000 → OClm 10000 | KREISER TIMOTHY C | Favorite |
| 3 | SISYPHUSLATCHMAN RESHAWN | 3.5 | E | Led lastTop last fig2026-08-12 CT 4f 49.80 B MT ft 6/7; 2025-09-12 CT 5f 62.60 B MT ft 1/1 · barn: same as last | OC10000 → OClm 10000 | KING ADAM | overlay |
| 5 | RUN OF THE HOUSEDIAZ JOSE Y | 4.5 | E | Rising figs2nd off layoffLed lastBarn changeSame trip2026-09-08 CT 4f 47.80 B MT ft bullet 1/4; 2026-06-25 CT 4f 48.80 B MT ft 4/11 · barn: change vs JOY KEVIN J | Clm5000n3lc → OClm 10000 | HAYNES ERNEST M | primed |
| 9 | GLINTBARBOSA JEIRON | 4.0 | C | Trouble lastClass dropBarn changeSame trip2026-09-17 MTH 4f 48.80 B MT ft 6/13; 2026-06-21 BEL 4f 50.80 B TT ft 77/88 · barn: change vs SYNNEFIAS PANAGIOTIS A | Alw5000s → OClm 10000 | FARRIOR ANTHONY | primed |
| 4 | ITS SIZZLING TIMESANTAELLA MOISES | 10.0 | EP | Rising figsSame trip2026-07-12 LRL 4f 52.00 B MT ft 105/109; 2026-06-09 LRL 4f 52.00 B MT ft 8/8 · barn: same as last | Clm4000n2x → OClm 10000 | BROWN RONNEY W | field |
| 8 | SHARPASADIAMONDARROYO BUENO NOMAR | 12.0 | EP | Class dropSame trip2025-05-30 CT 4f 48.60 B MT sy 3/23; 2025-05-24 CT 4f 50.20 B MT ft 21/28 · barn: same as last | Alw34100n1x → OClm 10000 | RIDEOUT ANTHONY M II | field |
| 2 | YOUTHINKTHATSFUNNYDAVIS JACQUELINE A | 15.0 | P | Same trip2026-06-17 CT 5f 62.40 B MT ft 2/2; 2026-06-05 CT 4f 49.60 B MT ft 15/29 · barn: same as last | sOC15000n1x → OClm 10000 | BOGGS JOANNA | field |
| 10 | TETCHEDRASPALDO JAHNXANDER | 15.0 | S | Class drop2026-05-29 CT 4f 49.60 B MT ft 23/48; 2026-04-17 CT 4f 48.60 B MT ft 6/15 · barn: same as last | Alw35100n1x → OClm 10000 | SHANLEY TIMOTHY | field |
| 6 | BLANCHES MULEDIAZ SUNDAY JR | 15.0 | C | Tag dropSame trip2026-08-15 CT 4f 50.80 B MT ft 24/30; 2026-05-18 CT 4f 51.80 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | Clm15000n3x → OClm 10000 | SHANLEY TIMOTHY | field |
| 7 | LARZMARTINEZ AGUSTIN | 20.0 | EP | Rising figsBarn changeTop last paceSame trip2026-10-03 CT 4f 49.00 B MT ft 3/29; 2026-07-18 CT 3f 36.60 B MT ft 14/27 · barn: change vs BROWN RONNEY W | OC10000 → OClm 10000 | RANGEL RICARDO | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACECT R4 · 2026-10-09 · D 1540y · OClm 10000
- SHAPEWall of six early/pressers projects a duel or meltdown; speed bias and post 1 favor chalk but the fractions should be honest enough to open the door for one well-placed stalker
- CHALKFavorite#1 HEAVEN STREET · solid on pace/post but vulnerable to the duel it helped create · short enough to skip
- LEANWinner call#1 HEAVEN STREET · best equipped to clear if the wall doesn't materialize; lone-speed on the inside in a speed-bias track
- PRIMED#5 RUN OF THE HOUSE (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, bullet work, barn change — class ask limits the edge); #9 GLINT (trouble last, class drop, barn change — closer needs the duel and has no price edge per model)
- PRICE#3 SISYPHUS · edge 0.048 · ML 3.5 · the only model overlay in the field
- PLAYPrice ticket#3 SISYPHUS · win · min 3-1 (pass if board is shorter at post)
- KILLSisyphus's route-to-sprint flag is real — zero wins in that spot per trainer key — and if #1 clears cleanly the chalk earns every bit of its price; any scratch of front runners changes the pace map
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt sprint OC claiming at CT, six-way speed wall into a proven speed/inside-bias track, moderate-to-high volatility from the wall of pressers. #1 HEAVEN STREET (chalk, 2.5) is the rightful lone-speed threat on the inside with the pace and post working in its favor, but six need-the-lead types project a genuine duel that makes its chalk price untenable; #3 SISYPHUS is the model's only non-chalk overlay (edge 0.048, top last fig in the field at 84, route-to-sprint cutback flagged but last two wins were solo-pace CT efforts) and owns a pace path if it grabs the front from post 3 before the wall engages. #5 RUN OF THE HOUSE is the sheet's primed play — rising fig (60→77), 2nd off layoff, bullet work 9/24, barn change, and already led at the first call in this exact trip — but it is stepping up in tag from a Clm5000n3lc win into OClm10000, which is a real class ask, and it is not a price overlay (edge 0.011). ---
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HEAVEN STREET | 2.5 | 22.1% | 23.9% | +1.8% | 0.75 | E | favoriteLed lastSame trip | — |
| 3 | SISYPHUS | 3.5 | 17.2% | 22.0% | +4.8% | 1.42 | E | Led lastTop last fig | — |
| 5 | RUN OF THE HOUSE | 4.5 | 14.1% | 15.2% | +1.1% | 0.75 | E | Rising figs2nd off layoffLed lastBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 9 | GLINT | 4.0 | 15.5% | 13.9% | -1.6% | 0.01 | C | Trouble lastClass dropBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 4 | ITS SIZZLING TIME | 10.0 | 7.0% | 6.2% | -0.8% | -0.08 | EP | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 8 | SHARPASADIAMOND | 12.0 | 6.0% | 5.0% | -0.9% | -0.23 | EP | Class dropSame trip | — |
| 2 | YOUTHINKTHATSFUNNY | 15.0 | 4.8% | 3.9% | -1.0% | -0.47 | P | Same trip | — |
| 10 | TETCHED | 15.0 | 4.8% | 3.6% | -1.3% | -0.79 | S | Class drop | — |
| 6 | BLANCHES MULE | 15.0 | 4.8% | 3.4% | -1.4% | -0.98 | C | Tag dropSame trip | — |
| 7 | LARZ | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.0% | -0.7% | -0.38 | EP | Rising figsBarn changeTop last paceSame trip | — |