DED R8 · 2026-10-09
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#10 #4 #8)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#10GANGSTER FLASHE
- C2#4TOMMIE GEP
- C3#8JOJO BEANEP
- C4#12GIOTTOP
- C5#5MO FOR USP
- C6#7LITTLE MISS CURLINS
- C7#11MISS PRIORITYS
- C8#9SECRET FAITHS
- C9#2RISING INFLATIONS
- C10#3NODAHC
- C11#6SAVED BY GRACEC
- C12#1ISLAND GOLDC
Honest pace among #10 GANGSTER FLASH and #4 TOMMIE G and #8 JOJO BEAN. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #12 GIOTTO, #5 MO FOR US, #7 LITTLE MISS CURLIN, #11 MISS PRIORITY, #9 SECRET FAITH, #2 RISING INFLATION · hurts #10 GANGSTER FLASH, #4 TOMMIE G, #8 JOJO BEAN
Pressure: #10 GANGSTER FLASH and #4 TOMMIE G and #8 JOJO BEAN hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #12 GIOTTO, #5 MO FOR US, #7 LITTLE MISS CURLIN, #11 MISS PRIORITY, #9 SECRET FAITH, #2 RISING INFLATION · hurts #10 GANGSTER FLASH, #4 TOMMIE G, #8 JOJO BEAN
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#7 LITTLE MISS CURLIN, #11 MISS PRIORITY, #9 SECRET FAITH, #2 RISING INFLATION, #3 NODAH, #6 SAVED BY GRACE, #1 ISLAND GOLD).
Helps #7 LITTLE MISS CURLIN, #11 MISS PRIORITY, #9 SECRET FAITH, #2 RISING INFLATION, #3 NODAH, #6 SAVED BY GRACE, #1 ISLAND GOLD · hurts #10 GANGSTER FLASH, #4 TOMMIE G, #8 JOJO BEAN
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SECRET FAITHBIRZER A E | 2.5 | S | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-10-02 DED 4f 50.00 Bg MT ft 5/68; 2026-09-26 DED 4f 49.60 B MT ft 5/68 · barn: same as last | fsLAStallnB100k → MagnoliaB100k | GELNER JAYDE J | Favorite |
| 2 | RISING INFLATIONCASTILLO ISAAC | 3.5 | S | Sharp work2026-09-26 LAD 5f 60.00 B MT ft bullet 1/7; 2026-09-15 LAD 5f 61.00 B MT ft 2/10 · barn: same as last | fSpttdHorse60k → MagnoliaB100k | WONG JONATHAN | field |
| 5 | MO FOR USHERNANDEZ HARRY | 6.0 | P | Rising figs3rd start cycleTop last figSame trip2026-08-28 RP 3f 38.60 H MT ft 5/15; 2026-08-20 RP 4f 50.80 H MT ft 35/53 · barn: same as last | fsLaCpFMSprB75k → MagnoliaB100k | ASMUSSEN STEVEN M | primed |
| 7 | LITTLE MISS CURLINHERNANDEZ COLBY J | 6.0 | S | 3rd start cycleSharp workSame trip2026-10-03 DED 4f 48.40 B MT ft bullet 1/76; 2026-09-25 DED 5f 63.00 B MT ft bullet 1/4 · barn: same as last | fCTOaks-G2 → MagnoliaB100k | DEVEREUX PATRICK JR | field |
| 8 | JOJO BEANMELANCON JANSEN | 8.0 | EP | Rising figsLed last2026-10-02 DED 4f 52.40 B MT ft 48/68; 2026-09-12 EVD 4f 49.00 B MT ft 2/15 · barn: same as last | fsLaCupDstfB75k → MagnoliaB100k | LANDRY ALLEN RAY | field |
| 10 | GANGSTER FLASHPOMPELL T L | 10.0 | E | Top last paceSame trip2026-06-30 CCT 4f 51.20 B MT ft 13/32; 2026-05-12 CCT 4f 51.80 B MT gd 21/27 · barn: same as last | fsLaCpFMSprB75k → MagnoliaB100k | KLANFER ALAN | field |
| 12 | GIOTTOSANTIAGO EDWARD | 10.0 | P | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-10-02 DED 3f 37.20 B MT ft 2/19; 2026-09-21 DED 4f 49.80 B MT ft 2/5 · barn: same as last | fsAlw42000n3l → MagnoliaB100k | CHATTERS BENARD | primed |
| 4 | TOMMIE GTHORNTON T G | 12.0 | EP | 2nd off layoffSame trip2026-10-01 DED 4f 51.80 B MT ft 22/49; 2026-08-15 EVD 5f 63.00 B MT ft 5/10 · barn: same as last | fOC15000n1x → MagnoliaB100k | WEST PATRICIA G | field |
| 3 | NODAHSANTIAGO EDWARD | 12.0 | C | Trouble last2026-10-02 DED 5f 66.80 B MT ft 5/5; 2026-09-24 DED 5f 65.00 B MT ft 2/4 · barn: same as last | fsLALgndTDB100k → MagnoliaB100k | CHATTERS BENARD | field |
| 6 | SAVED BY GRACEPEREZ CARLOS | 15.0 | C | Rising figs3rd start cycle2026-10-02 DED 4f 54.00 B MT ft 59/68; 2026-09-18 EVD 4f 52.80 B MT ft 26/33 · barn: same as last | fs1stLdyLaB100k → MagnoliaB100k | LARROSA JUAN A | primed |
| 1 | ISLAND GOLDVARGAS JUAN P | 20.0 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffHidden pace2026-10-02 DED 4f 50.80 B MT ft 14/68; 2026-09-12 EVD 5f 65.60 B MT ft 7/7 · barn: same as last | fsLaCupDstfB75k → MagnoliaB100k | LARROSA JUAN A | primed |
| 11 | MISS PRIORITYFUSILIER C | 20.0 | S | Same trip2026-09-25 DED 4f 49.20 B MT ft 4/24; 2026-09-11 EVD 3f 39.80 B MT ft 15/17 · barn: same as last | fsOC30000b → MagnoliaB100k | DUHON PAUL | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEDED R8 · 2026-10-09 · D 1540y · Magnolia B100k
- SHAPEWall of speed (#10/#4/#8) guarantees an honest-to-hot pace; mid-pack pressers and stalkers have the best setup
- CHALKFavorite#9 SECRET FAITH · short · 2nd off layoff, solid works, but 2.5 ML hides a soft figure (83 last) below the field's top and her peak (91) is fading; not opposable, just not a price
- LEANWinner call#5 MO FOR US · top fig (88) in the field, 3rd-start cycle peak, Asmussen ships to fire, tactical P style survives the duel in scenarios A and B
- PRIMED#5 MO FOR US (rising figs + 3rd-start cycle + top last fig + same trip); #12 GIOTTO (rising figs + 2nd off layoff); #1 ISLAND GOLD (rising figs + 2nd off layoff + hidden pace — LP 89 with 6th finish)
- PRICEno overlay flagged (all edge values below model threshold; model edge on #5 is 0.013, positive but overlay=false per sheet)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — no non-chalk overlay clears the sheet; #5 is the horse but overlay=false and the sheet rec is PASS
- KILLChalk fires at even money or shorter, drying up any return; #5 gets squeezed between the duel and traffic from post 5; pace doesn't materialize and lone speed steals it
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, track bias (no DED meet sample), weather
Why
Dirt sprint stakes at DED, 12-runner field with three early types assured of a pace duel, making this a moderate-to-high volatility race for closers and mid-pack stalkers with real figures. The shape clearly opposes the speed cluster (#10/#4/#8 in a wall), benefiting stalkers with a kick, and chalk #9 SECRET FAITH (2.5 ML) is a legitimate closer off solid works but is short and unproven in a return cycle that already showed erosion from her peak. #5 MO FOR US is the standout primed horse — last fig 88 is the field's top BRIS number, gained 14 points third start of the cycle, ships in from a Asmussen barn with a tactical pressing style that fits the A/B scenario cleanly at mid-pack behind the duel. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SECRET FAITH | 2.5 | 20.4% | 21.0% | +0.6% | 0.25 | S | favorite2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 2 | RISING INFLATION | 3.5 | 15.9% | 15.2% | -0.7% | -0.04 | S | Sharp work | — |
| 5 | MO FOR US | 6.0 | 10.2% | 11.5% | +1.3% | 0.61 | P | Rising figs3rd start cycleTop last figSame trip | — |
| 7 | LITTLE MISS CURLIN | 6.0 | 10.2% | 9.9% | -0.3% | 0.02 | S | 3rd start cycleSharp workSame trip | — |
| 8 | JOJO BEAN | 8.0 | 7.9% | 8.6% | +0.6% | 0.43 | EP | Rising figsLed last | — |
| 10 | GANGSTER FLASH | 10.0 | 6.5% | 7.6% | +1.1% | 0.77 | E | Top last paceSame trip | — |
| 12 | GIOTTO | 10.0 | 6.5% | 6.8% | +0.3% | 0.32 | P | Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 4 | TOMMIE G | 12.0 | 5.5% | 5.2% | -0.3% | -0.12 | EP | 2nd off layoffSame trip | — |
| 3 | NODAH | 12.0 | 5.5% | 4.8% | -0.7% | -0.41 | C | Trouble last | — |
| 6 | SAVED BY GRACE | 15.0 | 4.5% | 3.8% | -0.7% | -0.56 | C | Rising figs3rd start cycle | — |
| 1 | ISLAND GOLD | 20.0 | 3.4% | 2.8% | -0.6% | -0.59 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffHidden pace | — |
| 11 | MISS PRIORITY | 20.0 | 3.4% | 2.8% | -0.6% | -0.68 | S | Same trip | — |