ASD R4 · 2026-10-07
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find ASD R4 · 2026-10-07 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#2 #3 #6)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#2GET MY DRIFTE
- C2#3CUMBERLAND FALLSEP
- C3#6BLUE SPIRITEP
- C4#1BIG TIPPAP
- C5#5NOT SO SWIFTP
- C6#4MYSTIC SONGS
Honest pace among #2 GET MY DRIFT and #3 CUMBERLAND FALLS and #6 BLUE SPIRIT. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #1 BIG TIPPA, #5 NOT SO SWIFT, #4 MYSTIC SONG · hurts #2 GET MY DRIFT, #3 CUMBERLAND FALLS, #6 BLUE SPIRIT
Pressure: #2 GET MY DRIFT and #3 CUMBERLAND FALLS and #6 BLUE SPIRIT hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #1 BIG TIPPA, #5 NOT SO SWIFT, #4 MYSTIC SONG · hurts #2 GET MY DRIFT, #3 CUMBERLAND FALLS, #6 BLUE SPIRIT
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#4 MYSTIC SONG).
Helps #4 MYSTIC SONG · hurts #2 GET MY DRIFT, #3 CUMBERLAND FALLS, #6 BLUE SPIRIT
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | BLUE SPIRITKHELAWAN KERRON | 2.0 | EP | Tag dropSame trip2026-07-05 ASD 4f 47.80 B MT ft 2/5; 2026-06-26 ASD 4f 47.20 B MT ft bullet 1/8 · barn: same as last | fClm11250 → Clm 3000 | BROWN JARED | Favorite |
| 5 | NOT SO SWIFTBYNOE DAMARIO | 2.5 | P | Tag dropSame trip2026-08-05 ASD 5f 62.00 H MT ft 1/3; 2026-07-08 ASD 5f 63.00 B MT ft 3/3 · barn: same as last | fClm11250 → Clm 3000 | HUSBANDS TIFFANY | Favorite |
| 4 | MYSTIC SONGTOWNSEND SHAVON | 3.5 | S | Tag dropBarn changeSame trip2026-07-28 ASD 4f 50.80 B MT ft 8/14; 2026-07-23 ASD 4f 51.00 B MT ft 3/3 · barn: change vs ANDERSON CARL | fClm5500 → Clm 3000 | HUSBANDS TIFFANY | field |
| 3 | CUMBERLAND FALLSCHICKENESS S | 4.0 | EP | Rising figs3rd start cycleTag dropBarn changeSame trip2026-08-10 ASD 4f 50.40 H MT ft 4/9; 2026-07-27 ASD 4f 50.80 B MT ft 8/13 · barn: change vs DICKEY ELTON | fClm5500c → Clm 3000 | GARDIPY TOM JR | primed |
| 2 | GET MY DRIFTSTEPHENSON NEVILLE | 12.0 | E | Rising figsLed lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-03-14 HOU 4f 51.00 B MT ft 30/45; 2026-02-20 HOU 4f 47.00 Bg MT ft bullet 1/39 · barn: same as last | fClm3000 → Clm 3000 | GOURNEAU JERRY | field |
| 1 | BIG TIPPANELSON TYRONE | 10.0 | P | Same trip2026-05-22 ASD 3f 37.60 B MT ft 3/15; 2026-05-07 ASD 4f 53.40 H MT ft 17/20 · barn: same as last | fClm3000b → Clm 3000 | GARDIPY TOM JR | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEASD R4 · 2026-10-07 · Dirt 1320y · Clm 3000
- SHAPEWall of early speed (#2 #3 #6) + speed/inside bias → honest-to-hard pace, stalkers and pressers improve; closers inherit only in chaos
- CHALKFavorite#6 BLUE SPIRIT (2) and #5 NOT SO SWIFT (2.5) co-chalk; both opposable on pace grounds (front-end types into a contested shape) and zForm flags
- LEANWinner call#3 CUMBERLAND FALLS · five ready flags, presses from post 3 into a pace duel it can track, figures rising, same trip
- PRIMED#3 CUMBERLAND FALLS (rising_figs, third_start_cycle, tag_drop, barn_change, same_trip)
- PRICEno overlay flagged by model; #3 is primed but edge 0.017 / overlay=false at 4-1 ML — no certified price
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — sheet rec is PASS (non-chalk overlays only), model returns no non-chalk overlay, and the one primed horse does not clear the overlay gate
- KILLbarn's drop-off-claim category is 0-for-3 (-2.00 ROI); co-chalk #5 has legitimate form (76 fig, win last) and stalks cleanly; if #5 sits inside or #2 clears cheap, the pace map changes
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt sprint, $3,000 claiming cellar, six horses, moderate-to-high volatility given a wall of early speed and a bias that rewards early speed on the inside rail. Three horses (#2, #3, #6) project to the front, creating a genuine duel scenario that sets up the stalker/presser tier; chalk is split between #6 BLUE SPIRIT (2) and #5 NOT SO SWIFT (2.5), both dropping hard from fClm11250. #3 CUMBERLAND FALLS is the sheet's primed horse with five flags (rising figs, third-start cycle, tag drop, barn change, same trip), projects to press from post 3 in scenarios A and B, and at 4-1 morning line is the only non-chalk with a real path in the likely flow—though the Gardipy barn's "drops off claim" category is 0-for-3 at -2.00 ROI, which caps confidence.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | BLUE SPIRIT | 2.0 | 27.6% | 25.9% | -1.7% | -0.21 | EP | favoriteTag dropSame trip | — |
| 5 | NOT SO SWIFT | 2.5 | 23.6% | 24.6% | +0.9% | 0.19 | P | favoriteTag dropSame trip | — |
| 4 | MYSTIC SONG | 3.5 | 18.4% | 18.3% | -0.1% | 0.01 | S | Tag dropBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 3 | CUMBERLAND FALLS | 4.0 | 16.5% | 18.2% | +1.7% | 0.41 | EP | Rising figs3rd start cycleTag dropBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 2 | GET MY DRIFT | 12.0 | 6.4% | 6.8% | +0.4% | 0.28 | E | Rising figsLed lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 1 | BIG TIPPA | 10.0 | 7.5% | 6.3% | -1.2% | -0.68 | P | Same trip | — |