WO R9 · 2026-10-10
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#3 vs #5)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#3HOT MASHEP
- C2#1RAIDING PARTYC
- C3#5COOL TIMESEP
- C4#6DIXIE LAWS
- C5#4BOLD TIMES
- C6#2ONTOLOGYC
Honest pace among #3 HOT MASH and #5 COOL TIMES. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #6 DIXIE LAW, #4 BOLD TIME · hurts #3 HOT MASH, #5 COOL TIMES
Pressure: #3 HOT MASH and #5 COOL TIMES hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #6 DIXIE LAW, #4 BOLD TIME · hurts #3 HOT MASH, #5 COOL TIMES
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 RAIDING PARTY, #6 DIXIE LAW, #4 BOLD TIME, #2 ONTOLOGY).
Helps #1 RAIDING PARTY, #6 DIXIE LAW, #4 BOLD TIME, #2 ONTOLOGY · hurts #3 HOT MASH, #5 COOL TIMES
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RAIDING PARTYMUNGER RYAN | 1.8 | C | Rising figsHidden paceSharp workTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-10-01 TP 5f 61.20 B MT ft bullet 1/7; 2026-09-23 TP 5f 62.00 B MT ft 8/21 · barn: same as last | fDMrOaks-G1 → OntDamselL125k | WALSH BRENDAN P | Favorite |
| 6 | DIXIE LAWMORAN PIETRO | 1.6 | S | Sharp workSame trip2026-09-30 WO 5f 59.00 B MT ft bullet 1/7; 2026-08-30 WO 3f 36.00 B TN fm 1/1 · barn: same as last | frWondrWhreB250k → OntDamselL125k | DESRUISSEAUX DALE A | Favorite |
| 4 | BOLD TIMEAEBLY FRASER | 3.5 | S | Same trip2026-10-04 WO 4f 48.80 B MT ft 38/81; 2026-09-26 WO 5f 60.40 B MT ft 7/22 · barn: same as last | frWondrWhreB250k → OntDamselL125k | CARROLL JOSIE | field |
| 5 | COOL TIMESCAMPOS JOSE LUIS | 6.0 | EP | Led lastSame trip2026-10-05 WO 4f 49.20 B MT ft 3/10; 2026-09-26 WO 4f 48.60 B MT ft 38/70 · barn: same as last | frWondrWhreB250k → OntDamselL125k | VASSILIEVA KATERINA | field |
| 2 | ONTOLOGYWILSON EMMA JAYNE | 10.0 | C | Rising figsSame trip2026-10-03 WO 4f 48.20 B MT ft 14/73; 2026-09-26 WO 4f 47.80 B MT ft 8/70 · barn: same as last | fOC50000n2l → OntDamselL125k | ATTARD KEVIN | field |
| 3 | HOT MASHCIVACI SAHIN | 12.0 | EP | Rising figs2026-09-30 TP 4f 50.20 B MT ft 30/42; 2026-09-05 TP 4f 50.60 B MT ft 61/91 · barn: same as last | fAlw102000n1x → OntDamselL125k | SERVIS JOHN C | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEWO R9 · 2026-10-10 · D / 1870y / OntDamselL125k $125k
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#3 vs #5) frees the stalkers; bias favors early pace, but duel risk opens the door for #6 and #4 to inherit
- CHALKFavorite#1 RAIDING PARTY 1.8 and #6 DIXIE LAW 1.6 — both chalk by ML; RAIDING PARTY has the stronger model edge but is a closer from post 1 in a speed-biased surface; DIXIE LAW is the rightful shape beneficiary but edge is 0.006, essentially no overlay
- LEANWinner call#6 DIXIE LAW — best positioned in the pace map for scenarios A and B, local winner, solid works including a bullet
- PRIMEDnone (no non-chalk horse clears two flags with a pace path)
- PRICEnone (only overlay is #1 RAIDING PARTY, which is chalk)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLPace collapses or #3/#5 don't duel — lone speed scenario gifts the race to whoever clears, erasing DIXIE LAW's stalking edge; also, surface switch or weather not confirmed
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather / surface condition update, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt route at 125k non-graded stakes level on Woodbine's all-weather oval, six mares, moderate-to-high volatility given a two-speed duel projected up front and two co-favorites priced nearly identically. Shape is a contested early pace between #3 HOT MASH and #5 COOL TIMES, which hands scenario A and B directly to stalkers #6 DIXIE LAW and #4 BOLD TIME, both chalk or near-chalk; #1 RAIDING PARTY holds the top model edge (0.084) but is a deeper closer from post 1 on a surface where inside posts win only 14% and early speed wins 43%, meaning her path demands the pace melt. No horse clears two primed flags with a non-chalk price — the sheet already stamped PASS.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RAIDING PARTY | 1.8 | 28.0% | 36.4% | +8.4% | 1.55 | C | favoriteRising figsHidden paceSharp workTop last figTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 6 | DIXIE LAW | 1.6 | 30.2% | 30.8% | +0.6% | 0.58 | S | favoriteSharp workSame trip | — |
| 4 | BOLD TIME | 3.5 | 17.4% | 14.9% | -2.6% | -0.13 | S | Same trip | — |
| 5 | COOL TIMES | 6.0 | 11.2% | 7.4% | -3.8% | -1.16 | EP | Led lastSame trip | — |
| 2 | ONTOLOGY | 10.0 | 7.1% | 6.2% | -1.0% | -0.08 | C | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 3 | HOT MASH | 12.0 | 6.0% | 4.4% | -1.6% | -0.77 | EP | Rising figs | — |