closebeat
Start free
← RaceDay

BTP R6 · 2026-10-01

PASST1100y1 readyPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races
Bet now

Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find BTP R6 · 2026-10-01 on their board.

Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Sign in to run

Pace map

Wall of early / pressers (#1 #5 #11 #2 #10 #4)

Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#1MIDNIGHT MARYE
  2. C2#5PLUMEE
  3. C3#11OCEAN WINDOWSE
  4. C4#2AMERICAN SURFEREP
  5. C5#10MISS CLARKEEP
  6. C6#4DOWNTOWNRITABROWNEP
  7. C7#7A STERN LADYP
  8. C8#6TRANSCENDENCEP
  9. C9#9LIPSTICK N LASHESP
  10. C10#8MISS MOXEES
  11. C11#3SURELY THIS TIMES
A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #1 MIDNIGHT MARY and #5 PLUME and #11 OCEAN WINDOWS and #2 AMERICAN SURFER and #10 MISS CLARKE and #4 DOWNTOWNRITABROWN. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #7 A STERN LADY, #6 TRANSCENDENCE, #9 LIPSTICK N LASHES, #8 MISS MOXEE, #3 SURELY THIS TIME · hurts #1 MIDNIGHT MARY, #5 PLUME, #11 OCEAN WINDOWS, #2 AMERICAN SURFER, #10 MISS CLARKE, #4 DOWNTOWNRITABROWN

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #1 MIDNIGHT MARY and #5 PLUME and #11 OCEAN WINDOWS and #2 AMERICAN SURFER and #10 MISS CLARKE and #4 DOWNTOWNRITABROWN hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #7 A STERN LADY, #6 TRANSCENDENCE, #9 LIPSTICK N LASHES, #8 MISS MOXEE, #3 SURELY THIS TIME · hurts #1 MIDNIGHT MARY, #5 PLUME, #11 OCEAN WINDOWS, #2 AMERICAN SURFER, #10 MISS CLARKE, #4 DOWNTOWNRITABROWN

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#8 MISS MOXEE, #3 SURELY THIS TIME).

Helps #8 MISS MOXEE, #3 SURELY THIS TIME · hurts #1 MIDNIGHT MARY, #5 PLUME, #11 OCEAN WINDOWS, #2 AMERICAN SURFER, #10 MISS CLARKE, #4 DOWNTOWNRITABROWN

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
5PLUMECORRALES GERARDO2.0ERising figs2nd off layoffClass dropLed lastTop last paceSame trip2026-08-22 TP 5f 61.80 B MT ft 13/30; 2026-08-05 HAW 5f 61.40 B MT ft 4/6 · barn: same as lastfAlw34000n1x → OClm 16000n1xRIVELLI LARRYFavorite
1MIDNIGHT MARYMCKEE J2.5ELed lastSame trip2026-06-26 BTP 3f 37.00 B MT ft bullet 1/5; 2026-04-24 BTP 4f 48.60 B MT ft 2/13 · barn: same as lastfOC16000n1x → OClm 16000n1xSMITH LARRYFavorite
11OCEAN WINDOWSGONZALEZ SANTIAGO2.0ESame trip2026-07-21 TP 4f 52.80 B MT ft 49/50; 2026-06-06 TP 5f 61.20 B MT ft 4/20 · barn: same as lastfOC20000 → OClm 16000n1xJARVIS KATHYFavorite
10MISS CLARKEARAGON ROLANDO3.0EPSame trip2026-09-05 TTC 3f 37.40 B MT ft 6/12; 2026-08-22 TTC 4f 48.40 B MT ft 4/66 · barn: same as lastfOC20000 → OClm 16000n1xEVANS MICHAEL IIfield
8MISS MOXEEBOCACHICA O3.5SRising figsBarn changeTop last fig2026-09-21 TTC 4f 49.80 B MT ft 9/9; 2026-09-13 TTC 4f 52.00 B MT ft 11/15 · barn: change vs RICE LINDAfsKeyCentsB125k → OClm 16000n1xMCGUIRE KARA LINfield
9LIPSTICK N LASHESOUZTS P W4.0PRising figsSame trip2026-09-25 BTP 3f 36.60 B MT ft 3/7; 2026-09-06 BTP 5f 63.40 B MT ft 3/3 · barn: same as lastfOC16000n1x → OClm 16000n1xRILEY BARBARAfield
7A STERN LADYMOJICA R JR6.0PClass dropSharp workSame trip2026-09-23 TTC 3f 36.00 B MT ft bullet 1/16; 2026-09-05 TTC 5f 62.80 B MT ft 5/7 · barn: same as lastfAlw34000n2l → OClm 16000n1xEWING MICHAEL ANNfield
2AMERICAN SURFERNICHOLLS MIA12.0EPRising figsLed lastSame trip2026-09-09 TTC 4f 50.80 B MT ft 10/14; 2026-09-03 TTC 4f 50.20 B MT ft 7/13 · barn: same as lastfMdSpWt → OClm 16000n1xO'DWYER JEREMIAHfield
3SURELY THIS TIMEMACHADO DYLAN10.0SRising figs2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-05 TP 4f 51.00 B MT ft 74/91; 2026-08-11 TP 4f 49.20 B MT ft 17/29 · barn: same as lastfMdSpWt → OClm 16000n1xWEST ETHAN Wprimed
6TRANSCENDENCELAGUNES GABRIEL15.0PSame trip2026-04-23 BTP 5f 61.60 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-04-11 TP 4f 47.20 B MT ft 3/91 · barn: same as lastfOC16000n1x → OClm 16000n1xHESTER HALEYfield
4DOWNTOWNRITABROWNCANNON DECLAN15.0EPLed lastSame trip2026-09-03 TP 4f 49.80 B MT ft 5/19; 2026-08-12 TP 4f 50.40 B MT ft 26/38 · barn: same as lastfMd15000 → OClm 16000n1xMOLLOY THOMASfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed
  1. RACEBTP R6 · 2026-10-01 · Turf 1100y · OClm 16000n1x
  2. SHAPEWall of six speed/pressers (#1 #5 #11 #2 #10 #4) → duel/meltdown; stalkers and closers gain in A and B; inside rail and early-speed bias noted but pace shape overrides for non-speed types with inside posts
  3. CHALKFavorite#5 PLUME and #11 OCEAN WINDOWS (2-1) / #1 MIDNIGHT MARY (5-2) · usable but short · all three are pace types running into a wall of speed; class drops are real but they generate the very duel that hurts them
  4. LEANWinner call#3 SURELY THIS TIME · stalker who won last at BTP T 1100y, 2nd off layoff, rising figs, pace shape fits A and B
  5. PRIMED#3 SURELY THIS TIME (rising_figs + second_off_layoff; won last, same surface/trip)
  6. PRICEnone flagged by model (no non-chalk overlays); #3 at 10-1 ML is the only horse with 2+ ready flags and a clear pace path — manual overlay at that price
  7. PLAYPrice ticketPASS (model finds no non-chalk overlay; #3 is primed and the pace shape fits but the model edge is negative and the brief sheet rec is PASS — no overlay confirmed)
  8. KILLspeed duel fails to materialize (lone speed clears clean, chalk fires wire to wire); #3 draws a wide trip from post 3 in a rally; weather/off-turf switch neutralizes the turf specialist edge
  9. MISSINGlive tote, official scratches post-ingest, weather/going condition, rider changes

Why

Turf sprint at BTP in open claiming company draws a wall of six early/pressing types into the first call, making this a speed duel with a strong bias toward inside posts and early runners — high volatility given the pace chaos and class mix.

Six need-the-lead or pressing types project to a genuine duel (A/B scenarios both punish the speed), giving the best path to stalkers and closers despite the track's 71% early-speed winner bias; the three chalks (#5 PLUME 2-1, #11 OCEAN WINDOWS 2-1, #1 MIDNIGHT MARY 5-2) are all pace types running into their own traffic, making them lean candidates but dangerous as win bets at short prices.

#3 SURELY THIS TIME (10-1 ML) has two computed ready flags — rising figs (+4, from 63 to 67) and 2nd off layoff (62-day gap into last, now returning on a normal interval) — won last out on this exact surface/trip/distance at BTP from a stalking position, and the pace map sets up A/B paths perfectly for a closer sitting off the duel.

```
```

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Sign in to stamp the board

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Sign in to stamp a board print

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Pace + drop

#5 PLUMERIVELLI LARRYPD same · not figML 2.0Rising figs2nd off layoffClass dropLed lastTop last paceSame trip

Ready, not overlaid

#3 SURELY THIS TIMEML 10.0Rising figs2nd off layoffSame trip

Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
5PLUME2.016.2%19.9%+3.7%1.07EfavoriteRising figs2nd off layoffClass dropLed lastTop last paceSame trip—
1MIDNIGHT MARY2.513.9%16.4%+2.6%0.92EfavoriteLed lastSame trip—
11OCEAN WINDOWS2.016.2%15.1%-1.0%-0.02EfavoriteSame trip—
10MISS CLARKE3.012.1%11.2%-1.0%-0.09EPSame trip—
8MISS MOXEE3.510.8%10.5%-0.3%0.12SRising figsBarn changeTop last fig—
9LIPSTICK N LASHES4.09.7%8.8%-0.9%-0.16PRising figsSame trip—
7A STERN LADY6.06.9%5.9%-1.1%-0.43PClass dropSharp workSame trip—
2AMERICAN SURFER12.03.7%3.7%-0.0%0.19EPRising figsLed lastSame trip—
3SURELY THIS TIME10.04.4%3.2%-1.2%-1.02SRising figs2nd off layoffSame trip—
6TRANSCENDENCE15.03.0%3.0%-0.1%0.15PSame trip—
4DOWNTOWNRITABROWN15.03.0%2.4%-0.7%-0.74EPLed lastSame trip—