MNR R7 · 2026-10-11

WATCHD1100y1 price overlay(s)1 readyPLAY passRace Simulator →MC Exotics →Expert handicap ↓Results →After the races

Bet now

Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find MNR R7 · 2026-10-11 on their board.

Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

Pace map

Two-speed duel risk (#2 vs #6)

Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

C1#2BRIARCLIFFEP
C2#6THIRTY THIRTYEP
C3#1BIG NOTIONC
C4#4ALL LEGALC
C5#3ESTEVES
C6#7BAD BOY ROYC
C7#5BROHAMC

A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #2 BRIARCLIFF and #6 THIRTY THIRTY. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #3 ESTEVE · hurts #2 BRIARCLIFF, #6 THIRTY THIRTY

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #2 BRIARCLIFF and #6 THIRTY THIRTY hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #3 ESTEVE · hurts #2 BRIARCLIFF, #6 THIRTY THIRTY

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#1 BIG NOTION, #4 ALL LEGAL, #3 ESTEVE, #7 BAD BOY ROY, #5 BROHAM).

Helps #1 BIG NOTION, #4 ALL LEGAL, #3 ESTEVE, #7 BAD BOY ROY, #5 BROHAM · hurts #2 BRIARCLIFF, #6 THIRTY THIRTY

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#	Horse	ML	Style	Ready	Class	Barn	Role
2	BRIARCLIFFRAMGEET A R	2.5	EP	MSW → MCLLed lastSame trip2026-03-22 MNR 4f 48.20 B MT ft 3/17; 2026-03-15 MNR 3f 37.40 B MT ft 2/2 · barn: same as last	MdSpWt → Md 4000	RAMGEET TINA	Favorite
1	BIG NOTIONSILVA JUAN PABLO JR	3.0	C	2nd off layoffMSW → MCLSame trip2026-09-12 MNR 4f 50.00 B MT ft 4/10; 2026-06-25 SA 5f 63.40 H MT ft 22/23 · barn: same as last	MdSpWt → Md 4000	SILVA JUAN PABLO	field
4	ALL LEGALGONZALEZ KEVIN	3.5	C	Rising figsTag dropBarn changeTop last fig2026-08-09 MNR 3f 37.80 B D MT wf 1/3; 2026-05-27 TTC 3f 37.60 B MT my 2/2 · barn: change vs DOUAIHY MICHEL	Md5000 → Md 4000	FIGUEROA ROLANDO	overlay
6	THIRTY THIRTYMONSERRATE JORGE A JR	4.5	EP	Rising figsLed lastTop last paceSame trip2026-09-20 MNR 4f 49.00 B MT ft 3/9; 2026-08-30 MNR 4f 49.80 B MT ft bullet 1/4 · barn: same as last	Md4000 → Md 4000	UHACZ WENDY	field
5	BROHAMLEON JOSE A	8.0	C	Rising figsSame trip2026-09-12 MNR 4f 51.40 B MT ft 7/10; 2026-07-24 MNR 3f 37.00 B MT ft 3/4 · barn: same as last	Md4000 → Md 4000	SIPP BURTON K	field
7	BAD BOY ROYBARRIOS RICARDO	10.0	C	Rising figs2nd off layoffMSW → MCLSame trip2026-08-28 MNR 4f 49.80 B MT ft 3/4; 2026-07-20 MNR 3f 38.40 B MT ft 3/3 · barn: same as last	MdSpWt → Md 4000	LANGLEY WILSON C	primed
3	ESTEVEGARCIA F	15.0	S	2nd off layoffSame trip2026-09-04 PID 5f 62.20 B MT ft 3/3; 2026-08-24 PID 5f 62.00 B MT ft 2/2 · barn: same as last	Md4000 → Md 4000	ANTUS LAWRENCE	field

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY passPass — no tote needed

RACEMNR R7 · 2026-10-11 · Dirt 1100y · Md4000 · field 7
SHAPETwo-EP duel (#2 vs #6) · pace high · stalker/closer favored if speed empties · bias toward early speed / inside rail complicates closers
CHALKFavorite#2 BRIARCLIFF 2.5 ML · usable-but-short · MSW class edge is real but repeated dueling/emptying pattern and ROI-negative barn at this tag lowers conviction; not a fade, not a bet
LEANWinner call#2 BRIARCLIFF · best composite (signal 0.47, zSpeed 1.01, zPace 0.89, class drop) even with the weakening habit; if either EP clears early it is the one with the higher figures
PRIMED#7 BAD BOY ROY [rising_figs, second_off_layoff, MSW→MCL] — path is C-only; fig ceiling (18) is the lowest in the field; primed flag noted, not playable as a win ticket
PRICE#4 ALL LEGAL edge 0.028 · ML 3.5 · single model overlay — offset by 148-day layoff, 0-for-6 new barn, route fig not confirmed to sprint, C-only path in A/B
PLAYPrice ticketPASS — the one model overlay (#4) carries too many unresolved red flags (new barn 0%, long layoff, route-to-sprint, C-only path on an inside-rail bias track); no non-chalk horse has a clean path in A or B at a trustworthy price
KILLDuel fails to materialize (one EP scratches or yields) → lone-speed bias resurfaces and #2 BRIARCLIFF wire-to-wires at a price already too short; or #4 ALL LEGAL shows sprint speed in the gate and the new barn fires first out
MISSINGLive tote, official scratches post-ingest, weather / track variant, rider changes not on PP lines

Why

Dirt sprint maiden-claimer at MNR, short 1100y field of 7, cheap tag (Md4000), high volatility from a weak group and a two-speed pace battle.

Two EP types (#2 BRIARCLIFF, #6 THIRTY THIRTY) project a duel that figures to soften both; chalk #2 BRIARCLIFF is the class drop from MSW but has repeatedly dueled and emptied, making it usable-but-short rather than solid.

#7 BAD BOY ROY is the sheet's primed horse (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, MSW-to-MCL drop) but its best fig is 18, zSpeed is -1.92, and its path is C-only — the duel needs to detonate for it to inherit anything, which is a price-only posture at best; the one model overlay is #4 ALL LEGAL (edge 0.028, ML 3.5) with rising figs and a class drop, but its last fig of 61 came in a route at BTP 148 days ago, new barn shows 0-for-6 at the meet, and today is a 1st start for that trainer — that is too much noise to trust at a price that will likely be below 4-1 at close.

```
```

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Price overlays

#4 ALL LEGAL+2.8%ML 3.5Rising figsTag dropBarn changeTop last fig

Ready, not overlaid

#7 BAD BOY ROYML 10.0Rising figs2nd off layoffMSW → MCLSame trip

Full field

#	Horse	ML	Mkt%	Model%	Edge	Signal	Style	Sheet	Result
2	BRIARCLIFF	2.5	23.7%	25.0%	+1.3%	0.47	EP	favoriteMSW → MCLLed lastSame trip	—
1	BIG NOTION	3.0	20.8%	21.3%	+0.6%	0.37	C	2nd off layoffMSW → MCLSame trip	—
4	ALL LEGAL	3.5	18.5%	21.3%	+2.8%	0.83	C	Rising figsTag dropBarn changeTop last fig	—
6	THIRTY THIRTY	4.5	15.1%	14.5%	-0.6%	0.11	EP	Rising figsLed lastTop last paceSame trip	—
5	BROHAM	8.0	9.2%	7.7%	-1.5%	-0.46	C	Rising figsSame trip	—
7	BAD BOY ROY	10.0	7.5%	6.0%	-1.6%	-0.67	C	Rising figs2nd off layoffMSW → MCLSame trip	—
3	ESTEVE	15.0	5.2%	4.1%	-1.1%	-0.65	S	2nd off layoffSame trip	—