MNR R8 · 2026-10-04
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find MNR R8 · 2026-10-04 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#2 vs #8)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#2ALMOND FUDGEE
- C2#8GREYHOUND STATIONEP
- C3#11IM ON EDGEP
- C4#4REYA SUNSHINEP
- C5#3KAITIE KAITP
- C6#7HONESTLYS
- C7#1ROMANTIC JEWELS
- C8#13MISS M MS
- C9#10GREY MARKETS
- C10#12MACHEN REIGNSS
- C11#9BOCCABELLAC
- C12#6REVOCATAC
- C13#5Q BONDS
Honest pace among #2 ALMOND FUDGE and #8 GREYHOUND STATION. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #11 IM ON EDGE, #4 REYA SUNSHINE, #3 KAITIE KAIT, #7 HONESTLY, #1 ROMANTIC JEWEL, #13 MISS M M, #10 GREY MARKET, #12 MACHEN REIGNS, #5 Q BOND · hurts #2 ALMOND FUDGE, #8 GREYHOUND STATION
Pressure: #2 ALMOND FUDGE and #8 GREYHOUND STATION hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #11 IM ON EDGE, #4 REYA SUNSHINE, #3 KAITIE KAIT, #7 HONESTLY, #1 ROMANTIC JEWEL, #13 MISS M M, #10 GREY MARKET, #12 MACHEN REIGNS, #5 Q BOND · hurts #2 ALMOND FUDGE, #8 GREYHOUND STATION
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#7 HONESTLY, #1 ROMANTIC JEWEL, #13 MISS M M, #10 GREY MARKET, #12 MACHEN REIGNS, #9 BOCCABELLA, #6 REVOCATA, #5 Q BOND).
Helps #7 HONESTLY, #1 ROMANTIC JEWEL, #13 MISS M M, #10 GREY MARKET, #12 MACHEN REIGNS, #9 BOCCABELLA, #6 REVOCATA, #5 Q BOND · hurts #2 ALMOND FUDGE, #8 GREYHOUND STATION
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ROMANTIC JEWELATHERTON JONATHON R | 2.0 | S | Trouble lastTag dropSame trip2026-04-14 MNR 4f 52.20 B MT ft 25/25; 2025-09-10 MNR 3f 37.60 B MT ft 4/10 · barn: same as last | fClm4000n2x → Clm 3200b | BROWN JOHN T | Favorite |
| 8 | GREYHOUND STATIONRAMGEET A R | 3.0 | EP | Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-07-12 MNR 3f 35.20 Bg MT ft 1/2; 2026-07-05 MNR 4f 49.80 B MT ft bullet 1/6 · barn: same as last | fClm7500b → Clm 3200b | RAMGEET TINA | overlay |
| 11 | IM ON EDGEBARRIOS RICARDO | 5.0 | P | Same trip2026-06-15 LS 3f 38.20 B MT ft 5/7; 2026-06-05 LS 4f 50.00 B MT ft 23/31 · barn: same as last | fClm3200b → Clm 3200b | SILVA JUAN PABLO | field |
| 12 | MACHEN REIGNSTAPARA LUIS | 4.5 | S | Tag drop2026-05-01 MNR 4f 50.60 B MT ft 5/10; 2026-03-31 MNR 3f 37.40 B MT ft 8/25 · barn: same as last | fClm15000n3x → Clm 3200b | MARTINEZ TOMAS | field |
| 4 | REYA SUNSHINELEON JOSE A | 6.0 | P | Same trip2026-07-15 LAD 4f 51.00 B MT ft 26/42; 2026-06-24 LAD 4f 51.00 B MT ft 31/36 · barn: same as last | fClm3200b → Clm 3200b | SILVA JUAN PABLO | field |
| 7 | HONESTLYWEATHERLY BAILEY | 7.0 | S | Tag dropSame trip2026-06-21 MNR 4f 49.80 B MT ft 12/18; 2026-04-18 MNR 4f 49.80 B MT ft 10/16 · barn: same as last | fClm4000b → Clm 3200b | BLANKENSHIP DONALD T | field |
| 13 | MISS M MGOMEZ ALEJANDRO | 12.0 | S | Rising figsTag dropTop last figSame trip2026-03-10 PRX 4f 50.60 B MT ft 58/65; 2024-12-31 PRX 4f 53.80 B MT my 34/36 · barn: same as last | fClm5000b → Clm 3200b | VALDEZ MOISES | field |
| 9 | BOCCABELLATAPARA LUIS | 9.0 | C | Same trip2026-07-08 MNR 3f 36.00 B MT ft 2/20; 2026-04-10 MNR 3f 37.80 B MT ft 10/18 · barn: same as last | fClm3200b → Clm 3200b | WITHEROW WILLIAM G | field |
| 5 | Q BONDGONZALEZ KEVIN | 10.0 | S | Rising figsTag drop2026-08-16 BTP 3f 38.00 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-07-05 BTP 4f 50.00 B MT ft 5/8 · barn: same as last | fClm5000n4x → Clm 3200b | AGUIRRE JUAN R | field |
| 3 | KAITIE KAITMONSERRATE JORGE A JR | 15.0 | P | Rising figsClass dropSame trip2026-09-27 MNR 4f 49.40 B MT ft 4/9; 2026-09-20 MNR 3f 36.60 B MT ft 3/6 · barn: same as last | fAlw4000s → Clm 3200b | CORDERO-LOPEZ ALEXIS | primed |
| 6 | REVOCATAGILBERT KYLE | 12.0 | C | Rising figsTag dropSame trip2026-04-11 MNR 4f 50.40 B MT ft 8/13; 2026-04-04 MNR 3f 36.80 B D MT sy 2/11 · barn: same as last | fClm4000n3x → Clm 3200b | GILBERT JULIA | field |
| 2 | ALMOND FUDGEVILCHEZ MAIKOL | 20.0 | E | Rising figs3rd start cycleTag dropLed lastTop last paceSame trip2026-03-31 MNR 3f 37.60 B MT ft 9/25; 2025-11-01 MNR 3f 38.00 B MT ft 3/5 · barn: same as last | fClm4000b → Clm 3200b | CRAGO TERRY | primed |
| 10 | GREY MARKETGARCIA F | 20.0 | S | Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip2026-08-28 MNR 4f 48.80 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-08-19 MNR 4f 53.00 B MT ft 15/17 · barn: same as last | fClm3200 → Clm 3200b | NORRIS STEPHANI | primed |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEMNR R8 · 2026-10-04 · Dirt 1210y · Clm 3200b
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#2 E vs #8 EP) on a speed/inside-rail-biased track; pace high, pressers and inside stalkers benefit, outside closers face a steep ask
- CHALKFavorite#1 ROMANTIC JEWEL · usable but short · stalker with trouble last, inside post suits bias, but 2-1 offers no price for the risk
- LEANWinner call#8 GREYHOUND STATION · sharp class drop ($7,500b → $3,200b), rising fig, best signal and zSpeed in the field, EP style survives the duel in scenario A/B
- PRIMED#8 GREYHOUND STATION (rising figs, tag drop, same trip); #2 ALMOND FUDGE (rising figs, 3rd start cycle, tag drop, led last — pace suicide risk); #10 GREY MARKET (rising figs, 3rd start cycle — figs in the 19–28 range, structurally weak vs this group)
- PRICE#8 GREYHOUND STATION · edge 0.031 · min odds 3-1
- PLAYPrice ticket#8 GREYHOUND STATION · win · min 3-1 (at 5-2 or shorter, pass)
- KILLPost 8 on an inside-rail-biased track is a genuine path risk — if #2 sets a fast split and #8 never clears to rail, the shape becomes C and #1 inherits; also, #13 MISS M M carries the top last fig in the field (73) and could outrun the 12-1 ML from post 13, which would steal the play's thunder at a price
- MISSINGLive tote (ML only — 3-1 must hold at close), official scratches, weather/track condition change, rider changes not reflected in PPs
Why
Dirt sprint claiming at MNR, 1210y, $3,200 tag, 13-horse field — high volatility from field size, multiple class droppers, and a bias strongly favoring early speed from the inside rail. #2 ALMOND FUDGE projects on the lead from post 2 against #8 GREYHOUND STATION (post 8, outside), creating a two-speed duel that sets up the mid-pack pressers and stalkers; chalk is #1 ROMANTIC JEWEL at 2-1, which is usable but short and draws inside (post 1) as a stalker with trouble last start. #8 GREYHOUND STATION is the one primed-price horse with a path in A and B — dropping sharply from $7,500b, rising fig (66 over 63), strong signal (0.99), top zSpeed (1.22), early-press style that lets it sit second off #2 if the duel materializes, and the barn's printed Down 2+ classes stats (42.86% win, 71.43% ITM, ROI +0.69 on 7 starts) support intent — though post 8 puts it outside the bias rail. ---
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ROMANTIC JEWEL | 2.0 | 19.6% | 20.6% | +1.0% | 0.41 | S | favoriteTrouble lastTag dropSame trip | — |
| 8 | GREYHOUND STATION | 3.0 | 14.7% | 17.8% | +3.1% | 0.99 | EP | Rising figsTag dropSame trip | — |
| 11 | IM ON EDGE | 5.0 | 9.8% | 10.3% | +0.5% | 0.43 | P | Same trip | — |
| 12 | MACHEN REIGNS | 4.5 | 10.7% | 8.9% | -1.7% | -0.50 | S | Tag drop | — |
| 4 | REYA SUNSHINE | 6.0 | 8.4% | 8.2% | -0.2% | 0.11 | P | Same trip | — |
| 7 | HONESTLY | 7.0 | 7.3% | 7.7% | +0.3% | 0.38 | S | Tag dropSame trip | — |
| 13 | MISS M M | 12.0 | 4.5% | 5.1% | +0.6% | 0.69 | S | Rising figsTag dropTop last figSame trip | — |
| 9 | BOCCABELLA | 9.0 | 5.9% | 5.0% | -0.9% | -0.47 | C | Same trip | — |
| 5 | Q BOND | 10.0 | 5.3% | 4.3% | -1.0% | -0.62 | S | Rising figsTag drop | — |
| 3 | KAITIE KAIT | 15.0 | 3.7% | 3.7% | +0.0% | 0.22 | P | Rising figsClass dropSame trip | — |
| 6 | REVOCATA | 12.0 | 4.5% | 3.6% | -0.9% | -0.69 | C | Rising figsTag dropSame trip | — |
| 2 | ALMOND FUDGE | 20.0 | 2.8% | 2.9% | +0.1% | 0.30 | E | Rising figs3rd start cycleTag dropLed lastTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 10 | GREY MARKET | 20.0 | 2.8% | 1.9% | -0.9% | -1.25 | S | Rising figs3rd start cycleSame trip | — |