PID R4 · 2026-09-28
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find PID R4 · 2026-09-28 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Two-speed duel risk (#6 vs #1)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#6CHALANTE
- C2#1LAST TREASUREE
- C3#4SUMMER SPICYUU
- C4#2EXPLOSIVE RUNUU
- C5#3QUEENS QUILLUU
- C6#5MISS WATERMELONC
- C7#7ELMIGDARC
Honest pace among #6 CHALANT and #1 LAST TREASURE. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #6 CHALANT, #1 LAST TREASURE · hurts #6 CHALANT, #1 LAST TREASURE
Pressure: #6 CHALANT and #1 LAST TREASURE hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #5 MISS WATERMELON, #7 ELMIGDAR · hurts #6 CHALANT, #1 LAST TREASURE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#5 MISS WATERMELON, #7 ELMIGDAR).
Helps #5 MISS WATERMELON, #7 ELMIGDAR · hurts #6 CHALANT, #1 LAST TREASURE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MISS WATERMELONMARTINEZ GADDIEL A | 3.0 | C | 2nd off layoffTrouble lastSame trip2026-09-20 TP 4f 49.60 B MT ft 35/88; 2026-08-29 SAR 5f 59.00 B TT ft bullet 1/13 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | DANNER KELSEY | Favorite |
| 2 | EXPLOSIVE RUNGALLARDO ANTONIO A | 3.5 | U | Top last figSame trip2026-09-14 PEN 4f 51.20 B MT ft 2/2; 2026-08-22 PEN 5f 62.40 Bg MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | BEATTIE TODD M | field |
| 3 | QUEENS QUILLKINGSLEY TAYLOR | 4.0 | U | Sharp workSame trip2026-09-22 PID 3f 36.40 B MT ft 1/3; 2026-08-25 PID 4f 48.00 B MT ft 5/14 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | HAMM TIMOTHY | field |
| 4 | SUMMER SPICYROJAS MARTINA | 4.5 | U | Sharp work2026-09-17 PID 5f 59.40 B MT ft bullet 1/5; 2026-09-08 PID 5f 63.00 B MT ft 6/7 · barn: HAMM TIMOTHY (no last-line barn) | — → Md Sp Wt | HAMM TIMOTHY | field |
| 6 | CHALANTRODRIGUEZ ISRAEL O | 6.0 | E | Led lastSharp workSame trip2026-09-21 PID 4f 48.00 B MT ft bullet 1/15; 2026-07-30 PID 3f 35.00 B MT ft bullet 1/6 · barn: same as last | fMd15000 → Md Sp Wt | DAVIS SCOOTER | overlay |
| 1 | LAST TREASUREDELGADO DAVID | 10.0 | E | Top last paceSame trip2026-08-30 LRL 4f 52.40 B D T fm 3/12; 2026-08-14 LRL 3f 37.40 Bg MT ft 3/7 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | SMITH LAWRENCE M | field |
| 7 | ELMIGDARGARCIA F | 10.0 | C | Same trip2026-09-07 MNR 4f 48.20 B MT ft bullet 1/7; 2026-07-08 MNR 3f 36.80 Bg MT ft 4/20 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md Sp Wt | VIANDS GREGORY | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEPID R4 · 2026-09-28 · Dirt 1320y Maiden Special Weight
- SHAPETwo-speed duel (#6 CHALANT vs #1 LAST TREASURE); speed-biased / inside-rail track favors the E that clears, but a hook burns both; midpack/closers improve in B/C
- CHALKFavorite#5 MISS WATERMELON · short · 2nd-off-layoff and trouble flags present, but model edge is negative, post 5 disadvantages a closer on this inside-rail speed track, and LP 50 last out is well below the hidden-pace threshold
- LEANWinner call#2 EXPLOSIVE RUN · top field fig last out (71), 2nd career race (22% win / 55% ITM for barn key), inside post 2, honest model signal (+0.43), pace style unknown but mid-pack projected — benefits in scenario B if duel materializes
- PRIMEDnone (no horse reaches 2+ ready flags that qualify)
- PRICE#6 CHALANT · ML 6 · edge +0.021 (only printed overlay)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — #6 CHALANT is the lone overlay but his path is a speed duel he has failed to survive three times at PID, figs (57–67) are the field's weakest among horses with PPs, and the class bump (Md15k → MSW) is negative; edge of +0.021 is thin and the win path requires scenario A going perfectly; no credible price horse clears the bar
- KILLDuel fails to materialize (lone speed clears) — LAST TREASURE scratches or breaks poorly and CHALANT gets a clean lead; alternatively, MISS WATERMELON fires on 2nd-off pattern and the board is already too short to matter
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches post-ingest, weather/surface condition, rider changes not on PP lines
Why
Dirt sprint maiden special weight at PID, seven-runner field, moderate-to-high volatility given the two-speed duel shape and several unknowns (debuts, laybacks, style unknowns). Two early horses (#6 CHALANT and #1 LAST TREASURE) project a duel that could bleed them both, while chalk #5 MISS WATERMELON (ML 3) is a closer sitting on a "2nd off layoff / trouble last" setup but posts a negative model edge and is in the worst post for a closer in a speed-biased, inside-rail track. The only printed overlay is #6 CHALANT at ML 6, an early-speed type who led and held place in a weaker class (Md15k), posts a sharp bullet work (1/15 on 9-21), and carries the highest zPace in the field, though his path is a true duel and his figs have been modest (57–67) against today's MSW company.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MISS WATERMELON | 3.0 | 21.2% | 20.5% | -0.7% | -0.04 | C | favorite2nd off layoffTrouble lastSame trip | — |
| 2 | EXPLOSIVE RUN | 3.5 | 18.9% | 20.4% | +1.6% | 0.43 | U | Top last figSame trip | — |
| 3 | QUEENS QUILL | 4.0 | 17.0% | 16.9% | -0.0% | 0.10 | U | Sharp workSame trip | — |
| 4 | SUMMER SPICY | 4.5 | 15.4% | 15.0% | -0.4% | 0.00 | U | Sharp work | — |
| 6 | CHALANT | 6.0 | 12.1% | 14.3% | +2.1% | 0.75 | E | Led lastSharp workSame trip | — |
| 1 | LAST TREASURE | 10.0 | 7.7% | 6.7% | -1.1% | -0.48 | E | Top last paceSame trip | — |
| 7 | ELMIGDAR | 10.0 | 7.7% | 6.2% | -1.5% | -0.76 | C | Same trip | — |