MNR R8 · 2026-10-11
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#1 #9 #2 #10)
Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#1KRUGEP
- C2#5IF I WERE YOUS
- C3#9EL ONDEADOEP
- C4#2FORCE OF JUSTICEE
- C5#7BOLDNESSP
- C6#6SOUPERSILVERDOLLARP
- C7#10CAPTAIN CREEDEP
- C8#4RAMESSESS
- C9#3BOSSMES
- C10#8MO HAIR SAMC
Honest pace among #1 KRUG and #9 EL ONDEADO and #2 FORCE OF JUSTICE and #10 CAPTAIN CREED. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #7 BOLDNESS, #6 SOUPERSILVERDOLLAR, #5 IF I WERE YOU, #4 RAMESSES, #3 BOSSME · hurts #1 KRUG, #9 EL ONDEADO, #2 FORCE OF JUSTICE, #10 CAPTAIN CREED
Pressure: #1 KRUG and #9 EL ONDEADO and #2 FORCE OF JUSTICE and #10 CAPTAIN CREED hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #7 BOLDNESS, #6 SOUPERSILVERDOLLAR, #5 IF I WERE YOU, #4 RAMESSES, #3 BOSSME · hurts #1 KRUG, #9 EL ONDEADO, #2 FORCE OF JUSTICE, #10 CAPTAIN CREED
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#5 IF I WERE YOU, #4 RAMESSES, #3 BOSSME, #8 MO HAIR SAM).
Helps #5 IF I WERE YOU, #4 RAMESSES, #3 BOSSME, #8 MO HAIR SAM · hurts #1 KRUG, #9 EL ONDEADO, #2 FORCE OF JUSTICE, #10 CAPTAIN CREED
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FORCE OF JUSTICEBARRIOS RICARDO | 2.0 | E | Same trip2026-04-06 MNR 4f 50.00 B D MT hy 7/34; 2026-03-31 MNR 3f 36.40 B MT ft 2/25 · barn: same as last | Alw10000s → Alw 4000s | DEMCZYK VIRGINIA | Favorite |
| 9 | EL ONDEADOGONZALEZ KEVIN | 3.0 | EP | Led lastSame trip2026-04-21 MNR 4f 47.80 B MT ft bullet 1/16; 2026-04-10 MNR 4f 49.60 B MT ft 9/21 · barn: same as last | OC10000 → Alw 4000s | CLULEY DENNIS | field |
| 8 | MO HAIR SAMDIAZ R | 6.0 | C | 3rd start cycleLed last2026-06-21 ELP 4f 51.40 B MT ft 17/21; 2026-05-18 ELP 4f 50.20 B MT ft 2/10 · barn: same as last | OC15000n1x → Alw 4000s | AUSTIN KEITH A | field |
| 4 | RAMESSESGARCIA F | 7.0 | S | Same trip2026-04-02 TAM 4f 50.60 B MT ft 29/32; 2026-01-01 TAM 5f 63.80 B MT ft 3/4 · barn: same as last | Clm5000 → Alw 4000s | LANGLEY WILSON C | field |
| 7 | BOLDNESSTAPARA BRANDON | 9.0 | P | Rising figsLed lastTop last figSame trip2026-08-23 MNR 4f 50.60 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-07-29 MNR 4f 49.60 B MT ft 6/27 · barn: same as last | Clm10000 → Alw 4000s | NORRIS STEPHANI | overlay |
| 10 | CAPTAIN CREEDSIMPSON JASON | 7.0 | EP | Rising figsSame trip2026-08-05 MNR 4f 50.20 B MT ft 5/20; 2026-04-29 MNR 4f 50.20 B D MT ft 9/17 · barn: same as last | OC10000 → Alw 4000s | VIANDS GREGORY | field |
| 6 | SOUPERSILVERDOLLARRAMGEET A R | 10.0 | P | —2026-03-22 MNR 4f 48.80 B MT ft 5/17; 2026-03-15 MNR 3f 36.60 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | Alw3200s → Alw 4000s | PEASE HARRY | field |
| 5 | IF I WERE YOUWEATHERLY BAILEY | 15.0 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-05-22 PID 4f 46.80 B MT ft 9/27; 2026-05-12 PID 3f 36.40 B MT ft 2/17 · barn: same as last | Clm5000n4x → Alw 4000s | SCALLAN ROBERT S | field |
| 1 | KRUGTAPARA LUIS | 20.0 | EP | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip2026-06-08 MNR 4f 50.20 B MT ft 10/20; 2026-05-30 MNR 4f 49.80 B MT ft 4/5 · barn: same as last | Clm5000 → Alw 4000s | LOPEZ JOSE E | field |
| 3 | BOSSMEYARANGA Y | 20.0 | S | Rising figs2026-02-28 CT 3f 36.20 B MT ft 4/30; 2026-02-21 CT 3f 38.00 B MT my 4/5 · barn: same as last | Alw3200s → Alw 4000s | ARRIAGA MARIO | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEMNR R8 · 2026-10-11 · Dirt 1760y · Alw4000s
- SHAPEWall of speed (#1 #9 #2 #10) sets up a duel; stalkers/pressers (#7 #6 #4) get the pace gift; closers A/B beneficiaries
- CHALKFavorite#2 FORCE OF JUSTICE · opposable · fig cratered to 65 last route, zForm -2.08, stepping back in class but form is off
- LEANWinner call#7 BOLDNESS · top fig (88), rising cycle, won last at this exact trip, presser style fits A and B
- PRIMEDnone (per brief; #7 is overlay/rising but not flagged 2+ by ingest)
- PRICE#7 BOLDNESS edge +0.021 (only non-chalk overlay)
- PLAYPrice ticket#7 BOLDNESS · win · min 9-1 (ML); if board compresses below 6-1, PASS
- KILL#7 draws into the speed duel itself (post 7 means it may have to fight for position) or chalk bounces back to a 85+ fig
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track variant, rider changes
Why
Dirt route at MNR, allowance ($15k purse, Alw4000s), 10-horse field with a wall of early speed and a speed/inside bias — moderate-to-high volatility given the pace pressure. Shape is a legitimate duel with four EP/E types (#1, #2, #9, #10) projecting to the front; chalk #2 FORCE OF JUSTICE (ML 2) is **opposable** — dropped from Alw10000s, posted a -2.08 zForm, and its last route was a "dueled faded" effort at 65 fig. #7 BOLDNESS is the lone model overlay (edge +0.021), holds the top fig in the field at 88 (rising +6 over prior), led last out wire-to-wire at this exact trip, and projects as a pace presser/stalker who benefits when the speed quartet softens each other — it has a clean path in both A and B. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Price overlays
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FORCE OF JUSTICE | 2.0 | 25.2% | 23.2% | -2.0% | -0.46 | E | favoriteSame trip | — |
| 9 | EL ONDEADO | 3.0 | 18.9% | 16.7% | -2.1% | -0.61 | EP | Led lastSame trip | — |
| 8 | MO HAIR SAM | 6.0 | 10.8% | 11.5% | +0.7% | 0.13 | C | 3rd start cycleLed last | — |
| 4 | RAMESSES | 7.0 | 9.4% | 9.9% | +0.4% | 0.05 | S | Same trip | — |
| 7 | BOLDNESS | 9.0 | 7.5% | 9.7% | +2.1% | 0.86 | P | Rising figsLed lastTop last figSame trip | — |
| 10 | CAPTAIN CREED | 7.0 | 9.4% | 9.4% | -0.1% | -0.17 | EP | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 6 | SOUPERSILVERDOLLAR | 10.0 | 6.9% | 6.8% | -0.1% | -0.17 | P | — | |
| 5 | IF I WERE YOU | 15.0 | 4.7% | 5.6% | +0.8% | 0.52 | S | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 1 | KRUG | 20.0 | 3.6% | 4.3% | +0.7% | 0.58 | EP | Rising figsTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 3 | BOSSME | 20.0 | 3.6% | 3.1% | -0.5% | -0.74 | S | Rising figs | — |