MNR R5 · 2026-10-11
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
No dedicated early — closers need collapse
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#7KANTPAYTHETOLLP
- C2#4ZIPPY GIZMOC
- C3#8AMBULANTEP
- C4#1INNUENDOC
- C5#9ABUELO PAPSC
- C6#2DUSTY BILLYC
- C7#3CANDY INVASIONC
- C8#5BRAGGADOCIOUSS
- C9#6CORONA GRANDEC
No dedicated early. Crawl likely. One-run closers may never get a target.
Helps #7 KANTPAYTHETOLL, #8 AMBULANTE, #5 BRAGGADOCIOUS · hurts —
A surprise early type appears. The crawl map is wrong.
Helps #7 KANTPAYTHETOLL, #8 AMBULANTE, #5 BRAGGADOCIOUS · hurts —
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#4 ZIPPY GIZMO, #1 INNUENDO, #9 ABUELO PAPS, #2 DUSTY BILLY, #3 CANDY INVASION, #5 BRAGGADOCIOUS, #6 CORONA GRANDE).
Helps #4 ZIPPY GIZMO, #1 INNUENDO, #9 ABUELO PAPS, #2 DUSTY BILLY, #3 CANDY INVASION, #5 BRAGGADOCIOUS, #6 CORONA GRANDE · hurts —
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | AMBULANTEGARCIA F | 2.0 | P | Rising figsTrouble lastLed lastTop last figSame trip2026-04-29 OEC 4f 51.00 Bg MT ft 4/5; 2026-04-01 OEC 4f 51.00 Bg MT ft 6/8 · barn: same as last | Clm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1x | BARBARAN HORACIO | Favorite |
| 5 | BRAGGADOCIOUSGONZALEZ KEVIN | 3.0 | S | Rising figsSame trip2026-09-09 MNR 4f 51.20 B MT ft 5/11; 2026-05-16 MNR 4f 48.80 B MT ft 6/13 · barn: same as last | Clm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1x | FIGUEROA ROLANDO | field |
| 3 | CANDY INVASIONGOMEZ ALEJANDRO | 3.5 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoff2026-09-11 IND 5f 61.40 B MT ft bullet 1/7; 2026-08-28 IND 5f 61.40 B MT ft 3/8 · barn: same as last | Clm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1x | SPIESS SHANE M | primed |
| 4 | ZIPPY GIZMOYARANGA Y | 7.0 | C | Top last paceSame trip2026-04-08 MNR 5f 63.40 B MT ft 3/4; 2026-03-30 MNR 5f 64.80 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | Clm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1x | ARRIAGA MARIO | field |
| 7 | KANTPAYTHETOLLARROYO N JR | 12.0 | P | Same trip2026-04-11 MNR 4f 49.80 B MT ft 7/13; 2026-04-04 MNR 3f 40.00 B D MT sy 10/11 · barn: same as last | Clm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1x | ROBILLARD ALYSHA | field |
| 9 | ABUELO PAPSBRACHO AUGUSTIN | 12.0 | C | Hidden pace2026-06-19 MNR 4f 49.00 B MT ft 1/2; 2026-05-12 MNR 3f 37.00 B MT ft 4/18 · barn: same as last | Clm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1x | EWELL DEVAN SR | field |
| 6 | CORONA GRANDEBATISTA LUIS ALBERTO | 10.0 | C | Rising figsTag dropBarn changeSame trip2026-08-18 IND 5f 60.80 B MT ft 2/3; 2026-07-24 IND 5f 65.00 B MT ft 8/8 · barn: change vs WISNER TRACEY J | sClm5000b → Clm 4000n1x | SPIESS SHANE M | field |
| 2 | DUSTY BILLYLEON JOSE A | 15.0 | C | —2026-07-29 MNR 4f 50.60 Bg MT ft 15/27; 2026-07-19 MNR 4f 52.00 B MT ft 11/12 · barn: same as last | Clm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1x | BIRD DANNY | field |
| 1 | INNUENDOWEATHERLY BAILEY | 20.0 | C | Hidden paceSame trip2026-08-13 PID 3f 37.60 B MT ft 2/6; 2026-08-05 PID 4f 49.20 B MT ft bullet 1/6 · barn: same as last | Clm4000n1x → Clm 4000n1x | ANTUS LAWRENCE | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEMNR R5 · 2026-10-11 · Dirt route 1760y · Clm 4000n1x
- SHAPENo dedicated early speed — crawl likely, pressers #7/#8 control the tempo; closers need a duel that may never materialize; speed bias + inner-rail bias punishes post 8
- CHALKFavorite#8 AMBULANTE · short/usable but opposable — top fig and pace path are real, but post 8 fights the rail bias in a crawl that could let it coast clear, and the "drew clear; faltered" last is a slight bounce flag
- LEANWinner call#8 AMBULANTE · best figure, only true presser with a pace path in A and B
- PRIMED#3 CANDY INVASION — rising figs (57→61), 2nd off 445-day layoff, inside post 3, LP 86 last; path exists in Scenario C if pace compresses
- PRICEnone (no non-chalk overlay clears the model)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS — the only price horse with a path is the chalk; no non-chalk overlay on the board
- KILLchalk fires wire-to-wire in a crawl and the public is right; CANDY INVASION's sprint-to-route and low fig ceiling make it exotic-only
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes
Why
Dirt route, Clm 4000n1x, nine closers chasing a crawl at a speed-biased MNR — moderate-to-high volatility with no natural front-runner to set a target. #8 AMBULANTE is the 2-1 chalk with the top figure (73), an A/B pace path as one of only two pressers, and a rising fig off a "drew clear; faltered" trip, but post 8 is a red flag on a rail-biased track and the route win% for this barn is deeply negative. #3 CANDY INVASION is the sheet's primed horse (rising figs, 2nd off a 445-day layoff) and drew a favorable inside post, though last race was a sprint and the fig ceiling (61) sits well below the chalk.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | AMBULANTE | 2.0 | 25.9% | 26.9% | +1.0% | 0.30 | P | favoriteRising figsTrouble lastLed lastTop last figSame trip | — |
| 5 | BRAGGADOCIOUS | 3.0 | 19.4% | 19.4% | -0.0% | 0.14 | S | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 3 | CANDY INVASION | 3.5 | 17.3% | 17.9% | +0.7% | 0.30 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoff | — |
| 4 | ZIPPY GIZMO | 7.0 | 9.7% | 10.2% | +0.5% | 0.35 | C | Top last paceSame trip | — |
| 7 | KANTPAYTHETOLL | 12.0 | 6.0% | 7.0% | +1.0% | 0.75 | P | Same trip | — |
| 9 | ABUELO PAPS | 12.0 | 6.0% | 6.0% | +0.0% | 0.16 | C | Hidden pace | — |
| 6 | CORONA GRANDE | 10.0 | 7.1% | 5.2% | -1.8% | -1.06 | C | Rising figsTag dropBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 2 | DUSTY BILLY | 15.0 | 4.9% | 4.0% | -0.9% | -0.63 | C | — | |
| 1 | INNUENDO | 20.0 | 3.7% | 3.3% | -0.4% | -0.31 | C | Hidden paceSame trip | — |