RP R1 · 2026-10-10
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Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #6 IONA MCKINZIE
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#6IONA MCKINZIEEP
- C2#8OVER REACTEDS
- C3#9SWIFTLIKETAYLORS
- C4#5KELBELAC
- C5#10SHAKE THAT THINGC
- C6#3JERRYS LADYS
- C7#2AKKADEVIC
- C8#4OVERTHROWC
- C9#1ZAYLAC
- C10#7EMBROIDERYC
#6 IONA MCKINZIE controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #6 IONA MCKINZIE · hurts #8 OVER REACTED, #9 SWIFTLIKETAYLOR, #5 KELBELA, #10 SHAKE THAT THING, #3 JERRYS LADY, #2 AKKADEVI, #4 OVERTHROW, #1 ZAYLA, #7 EMBROIDERY
Someone presses #6 IONA MCKINZIE. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #8 OVER REACTED, #9 SWIFTLIKETAYLOR, #3 JERRYS LADY · hurts #6 IONA MCKINZIE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#8 OVER REACTED, #9 SWIFTLIKETAYLOR, #5 KELBELA, #10 SHAKE THAT THING, #3 JERRYS LADY, #2 AKKADEVI, #4 OVERTHROW, #1 ZAYLA, #7 EMBROIDERY).
Helps #8 OVER REACTED, #9 SWIFTLIKETAYLOR, #5 KELBELA, #10 SHAKE THAT THING, #3 JERRYS LADY, #2 AKKADEVI, #4 OVERTHROW, #1 ZAYLA, #7 EMBROIDERY · hurts #6 IONA MCKINZIE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SWIFTLIKETAYLORVALDEZ-JIMINEZ ERNESTO | 1.6 | S | 3rd start cycle2026-08-22 RP 3f 38.00 H MT ft 6/44; 2026-05-24 LS 4f 50.40 B MT ft 53/88 · barn: same as last | fMd20000 → Md 20000 | CRAVENS RONNIE III | Favorite |
| 6 | IONA MCKINZIEALVAREZ JOSE L | 4.0 | EP | MSW → MCLBarn changeSame trip2026-09-28 RP 4f 48.20 H MT ft 2/4; 2026-09-21 RP 4f 49.20 H MT ft 4/7 · barn: change vs FOSTER JOSEPH M | fMdSpWt → Md 20000 | CALHOUN WILLIAM BRET | field |
| 3 | JERRYS LADYWETHEY FLOYD JR | 5.0 | S | Rising figs2nd off layoffTop last pace2026-10-02 RP 5f 61.60 H MT ft 7/13; 2026-09-24 RP 5f 60.60 H MT ft bullet 1/4 · barn: same as last | fMd30000 → Md 20000 | CASTER BOYD | primed |
| 2 | AKKADEVIFRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI | 6.0 | C | 2nd off layoffMSW → MCL2026-10-02 RP 5f 63.60 H MT ft 11/13; 2026-09-26 RP 5f 61.80 H MT ft 12/38 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md 20000 | DIODORO ROBERTINO | field |
| 8 | OVER REACTEDFUENTES MARIO | 10.0 | S | Rising figs3rd start cycleTop last fig2026-08-27 RP 4f 51.60 H MT ft 30/38; 2026-08-18 RP 4f 51.80 H MT ft 39/41 · barn: same as last | fMd10000 → Md 20000 | PADILLA JUAN | primed |
| 4 | OVERTHROWHUCKABY RONNIE | 12.0 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoff2026-09-04 RP 3f 39.20 H MT ft 11/11; 2026-04-09 WRD 3f 38.00 H MT ft 3/3 · barn: same as last | fMd20000 → Md 20000 | CORDERMAN SCOTT | primed |
| 5 | KELBELAWISEMAN ISAIAH | 20.0 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoff2026-10-02 RP 5f 64.00 H MT ft 12/13; 2026-09-12 RP 4f 51.00 H MT ft 69/81 · barn: same as last | fMd10000 → Md 20000 | RARICK WADE | primed |
| 7 | EMBROIDERYELLIOTT S | 15.0 | C | 2nd off layoffMSW → MCLSame trip2026-08-28 RP 5f 62.20 H MT ft 6/21; 2026-08-21 RP 5f 62.20 H MT ft 4/19 · barn: same as last | fMdSpWt → Md 20000 | CAPPELLUCCI DICK | field |
| 10 | SHAKE THAT THINGPADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER | 20.0 | C | Same trip2026-09-30 RP 4f 53.40 H MT ft 38/38; 2026-09-23 RP 4f 49.00 H MT ft 15/31 · barn: same as last | fsMd7500 → Md 20000 | VILLAFRANCO FREDERICO | field |
| 1 | ZAYLAGONCALVES LEANDRO R | 20.0 | C | Same trip2026-10-02 WRD 5f 61.80 H MT gd 2/2; 2026-09-16 WRC 4f 48.40 B MT ft bullet 1/6 · barn: same as last | fMd5000 → Md 20000 | GUNTER MICHAEL C | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACERP R1 · 2026-10-10 · Turf 1870y · Md 20000
- SHAPELone speed (#6) into a closer/rail-biased field; shape favors stalkers and closers from inside posts
- CHALKFavorite#9 SWIFTLIKETAYLOR · solid · best signal/fig/cycle, but post 9 and bias-penalised; short to bet
- LEANWinner call#9 SWIFTLIKETAYLOR · most likely winner on cycle and figures
- PRIMED#3 JERRYS LADY (rising figs, 2nd off layoff, top LP, inside post, class drop); #8 OVER REACTED (rising figs, 3rd start cycle, top fig, path in B); #4 OVERTHROW (rising figs, 2nd off layoff — figs thin, underneath only); #5 KELBELA (rising figs, 2nd off layoff — class jump kills it)
- PRICEnone (no non-chalk overlays on the sheet)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILL#6 IONA MCKINZIE clears wire-to-wire on a speed-favouring track shift; chalk fires from post 9 despite bias; #3 JERRYS LADY turf/route profile unproven
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/going, rider changes
Why
Turf route maiden claiming at RP, 10-runner field, closer/rail bias and lone-speed shape makes this a moderate-volatility spot where pace shape matters more than raw figures. #6 IONA MCKINZIE is lone speed at 4-1 ML but the bias data (closers 50%, posts 8+ at 0%, inside rail) actively opposes a wire-to-wire effort; chalk is #9 SWIFTLIKETAYLOR at 1.6-1 ML, solid on figures and cycle but a post-9 stalker asking the field to press #6 for it. #3 JERRYS LADY is the most interesting primed non-chalk — rising figs (66 vs prior 27), second off layoff, top late pace in the field, inside post 3 matching the rail bias, and a real class drop from Md30000 to Md20000 — but the model shows no price overlay at 5-1 ML, so this is a shape match without a number yet. ``` ```
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SWIFTLIKETAYLOR | 1.6 | 30.3% | 32.5% | +2.2% | 0.59 | S | favorite3rd start cycle | — |
| 6 | IONA MCKINZIE | 4.0 | 15.8% | 16.4% | +0.6% | 0.46 | EP | MSW → MCLBarn changeSame trip | — |
| 3 | JERRYS LADY | 5.0 | 13.2% | 13.3% | +0.1% | 0.35 | S | Rising figs2nd off layoffTop last pace | — |
| 2 | AKKADEVI | 6.0 | 11.3% | 11.3% | +0.1% | 0.34 | C | 2nd off layoffMSW → MCL | — |
| 8 | OVER REACTED | 10.0 | 7.2% | 8.1% | +1.0% | 0.82 | S | Rising figs3rd start cycleTop last fig | — |
| 4 | OVERTHROW | 12.0 | 6.1% | 5.5% | -0.6% | -0.08 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoff | — |
| 5 | KELBELA | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.7% | -0.1% | 0.26 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoff | — |
| 7 | EMBROIDERY | 15.0 | 4.9% | 3.4% | -1.5% | -1.17 | C | 2nd off layoffMSW → MCLSame trip | — |
| 10 | SHAKE THAT THING | 20.0 | 3.8% | 3.2% | -0.6% | -0.33 | C | Same trip | — |
| 1 | ZAYLA | 20.0 | 3.8% | 2.6% | -1.2% | -1.22 | C | Same trip | — |