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MNR R5 · 2026-09-29

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Expert handicap

LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.

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Pace map

Wall of early / pressers (#8 #1 #3 #2 #5)

Pressure extreme. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.

  1. C1#8YOU BET A FORTUNEE
  2. C2#1ZEALOUS STORME
  3. C3#3ZEN NATIONE
  4. C4#2LITTLE ROO ROOEP
  5. C5#5ABUNDANT ENERGYEP
  6. C6#6OUT OF CENTSP
  7. C7#7GIACOMO CASANOVAS
  8. C8#4BLACK CANDYS
A · Likely — expected flow

Honest pace among #8 YOU BET A FORTUNE and #1 ZEALOUS STORM and #3 ZEN NATION and #2 LITTLE ROO ROO and #5 ABUNDANT ENERGY. Ability decides if they do not empty.

Helps #6 OUT OF CENTS, #7 GIACOMO CASANOVA, #4 BLACK CANDY · hurts #8 YOU BET A FORTUNE, #1 ZEALOUS STORM, #3 ZEN NATION, #2 LITTLE ROO ROO, #5 ABUNDANT ENERGY

B · Pressure — duel / honest

Pressure: #8 YOU BET A FORTUNE and #1 ZEALOUS STORM and #3 ZEN NATION and #2 LITTLE ROO ROO and #5 ABUNDANT ENERGY hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.

Helps #6 OUT OF CENTS, #7 GIACOMO CASANOVA, #4 BLACK CANDY · hurts #8 YOU BET A FORTUNE, #1 ZEALOUS STORM, #3 ZEN NATION, #2 LITTLE ROO ROO, #5 ABUNDANT ENERGY

C · Chaos — collapse

Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#7 GIACOMO CASANOVA, #4 BLACK CANDY).

Helps #7 GIACOMO CASANOVA, #4 BLACK CANDY · hurts #8 YOU BET A FORTUNE, #1 ZEALOUS STORM, #3 ZEN NATION, #2 LITTLE ROO ROO, #5 ABUNDANT ENERGY

Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.

#HorseMLStyleReadyClassBarnRole
3ZEN NATIONSKERRETT JEFFERSON2.0ERising figsClass dropLed lastSame trip2026-04-22 MNR 3f 36.80 B MT ft 5/28; 2026-04-15 MNR 3f 37.40 B MT ft 7/21 · barn: same as lastsAlw12500s → OClm 30000n4lPOOLE JAMI CFavorite
1ZEALOUS STORMGREENIDGE ELIJAH3.0ERising figsClass dropLed lastSame trip2026-04-22 MNR 3f 36.40 B MT ft 3/28; 2026-04-15 MNR 3f 35.00 B MT ft bullet 1/21 · barn: same as lastAlw19000n2x → OClm 30000n4lPOOLE JAMI Cprimed
8YOU BET A FORTUNETAPARA BRANDON3.5ERising figsLed lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip2026-07-24 MNR 4f 48.40 B MT ft 2/4; 2026-04-20 MNR 4f 49.00 B MT ft 5/11 · barn: same as lastClm25000b → OClm 30000n4lBERNARDINI JAY Pfield
6OUT OF CENTSBRACHO JOSE A6.0PRising figsClass dropSame trip2026-04-17 MNR 5f 63.80 B MT ft 5/8; 2026-04-04 MNR 4f 50.00 B D MT sy 10/23 · barn: same as lastsAlw12500s → OClm 30000n4lCLOUSTON EDWARDprimed
7GIACOMO CASANOVAPARKER D L8.0SRising figsSame trip2026-04-04 MNR 4f 50.40 B D MT sy 15/23; 2026-03-28 MNR 3f 38.40 B MT ft 13/20 · barn: same as lastsOC15000b → OClm 30000n4lBAIRD J MICHAELfield
5ABUNDANT ENERGYBATISTA LUIS ALBERTO10.0EPClass dropSame trip2026-02-18 MVR 3f 37.20 B MT gd bullet 1/6; 2025-10-01 MNR 5f 63.80 Bg MT ft 2/5 · barn: same as lastsAlw12500s → OClm 30000n4lCLOUSTON EDWARDfield
2LITTLE ROO ROOHO WESLEY15.0EPRising figsSame trip2026-03-25 CT 3f 40.60 B MT ft 11/11; 2025-09-13 CT 4f 49.60 B MT ft 8/23 · barn: same as lastsOC20000b → OClm 30000n4lJONES MICHAEL E JRfield
4BLACK CANDYBLANCHE RISHAWN20.0SBarn changeSame trip2026-07-24 BTP 3f 36.00 Bg MT ft 2/7; 2026-04-19 TAM 4f 51.60 B MT ft 61/66 · barn: change vs TOMCZAK MARKClm5000b → OClm 30000n4lMONDAY KEVINfield

From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.

PLAY lookLook — stamp tote to make this an action grade
  1. RACEMNR R5 · 2026-09-29 · Dirt 1210y · OClm 30000n4l
  2. SHAPEWall of five early/pressers guarantees a duel; pace meltdown lifts the rail and stalkers; speed bias but posts 8+ win 0%
  3. CHALKFavorite#3 ZEN NATION · short · ML 2, solid form and rail-adjacent post but pace duel and class-drop edge are already priced in
  4. LEANWinner call#1 ZEALOUS STORM · primed rail speed with the bigger fig jump, post 1 on a speed/inside bias, legit A/B path
  5. PRIMED#1 ZEALOUS STORM (rising figs +10, class drop, led last, same trip); #6 OUT OF CENTS (rising figs +6, class drop, same trip — P style benefits in B/C but no overlay)
  6. PRICE#1 ZEALOUS STORM edge 0.021 · min odds 3-1
  7. PLAYPrice ticket#1 ZEALOUS STORM · win · min 3-1 (ML is exactly 3-1; pass if board opens shorter)
  8. KILLchalk #3 ZEN NATION clears on a clean break and the duel never materializes; #1 fractious gate repeat (fractious 2026-08-24); live tote shorten #1 below 3-1
  9. MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather/track condition at post, rider changes

Why

Dirt sprint claiming wall-of-speed (five early/pressers) at MNR, moderate-to-high volatility given the pace duel and a class-drop chalk.

Five horses want the front with the speed bias favoring posts 1-3 and early style, so the duel is near-certain and both #3 ZEN NATION (ML 2, chalk) and #1 ZEALOUS STORM (ML 3) launch from the rail posts with rising figs and class drops, making the chalk live but short.

#1 ZEALOUS STORM ships the bigger fig jump (+10, 66→76), drew the rail post on a track that wins 55% from posts 1-3, gets the same Poole barn as the chalk (intent on both, but the 3 ML is the price), and has a clear A/B path as a need-the-lead type positioned to save ground while the chalk sets the pace.

Tote field

Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.

PLAY is a look. Stamp the board so after official we can grade an action, not a morning-line wish.

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Practice ticket

Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.

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Price / ready board

Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.

Price overlays

#1 ZEALOUS STORM+2.1%ML 3.0Rising figsClass dropLed lastSame trip
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Ready, not overlaid

#6 OUT OF CENTSML 6.0Rising figsClass dropSame trip

Full field

#HorseML Mkt% Model% Edge Signal StyleSheet Result
3ZEN NATION2.026.4%28.8%+2.3%0.77EfavoriteRising figsClass dropLed lastSame trip—
1ZEALOUS STORM3.019.8%22.0%+2.1%0.84ERising figsClass dropLed lastSame trip—
8YOU BET A FORTUNE3.517.6%19.2%+1.6%0.77ERising figsLed lastTop last figTop last paceSame trip—
6OUT OF CENTS6.011.3%10.8%-0.6%0.22PRising figsClass dropSame trip—
7GIACOMO CASANOVA8.08.8%6.5%-2.4%-0.82SRising figsSame trip—
5ABUNDANT ENERGY10.07.2%6.3%-0.9%-0.09EPClass dropSame trip—
2LITTLE ROO ROO15.05.0%4.0%-1.0%-0.44EPRising figsSame trip—
4BLACK CANDY20.03.8%2.5%-1.3%-1.24SBarn changeSame trip—