IND R7 · 2026-09-30
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find IND R7 · 2026-09-30 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Lone speed #8 WOSIES PROMISE
Pressure moderate. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#8WOSIES PROMISEE
- C2#2SMOKINGHOT JUSTICEC
- C3#7SPIRITED JUSTICEP
- C4#1KABOOMC
- C5#6SWISS MERINGUEC
- C6#5LEXIES LUNAR ROCKC
- C7#3PARTY IN THE CLUBC
- C8#9ELTINGEC
- C9#4CRAZY SEXY COOLS
- C10#10JUSTICEONTHERAILC
#8 WOSIES PROMISE controls. Closers need a melt that does not come.
Helps #8 WOSIES PROMISE · hurts #2 SMOKINGHOT JUSTICE, #1 KABOOM, #6 SWISS MERINGUE, #5 LEXIES LUNAR ROCK, #3 PARTY IN THE CLUB, #9 ELTINGE, #4 CRAZY SEXY COOL, #10 JUSTICEONTHERAIL
Someone presses #8 WOSIES PROMISE. Soft-lead thesis dies.
Helps #7 SPIRITED JUSTICE, #4 CRAZY SEXY COOL · hurts #8 WOSIES PROMISE
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#2 SMOKINGHOT JUSTICE, #1 KABOOM, #6 SWISS MERINGUE, #5 LEXIES LUNAR ROCK, #3 PARTY IN THE CLUB, #9 ELTINGE, #4 CRAZY SEXY COOL, #10 JUSTICEONTHERAIL).
Helps #2 SMOKINGHOT JUSTICE, #1 KABOOM, #6 SWISS MERINGUE, #5 LEXIES LUNAR ROCK, #3 PARTY IN THE CLUB, #9 ELTINGE, #4 CRAZY SEXY COOL, #10 JUSTICEONTHERAIL · hurts #8 WOSIES PROMISE
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SMOKINGHOT JUSTICEDE LA CRUZ FERNANDO | 2.0 | C | Rising figs2nd off layoffTop last figSame trip2026-09-23 IND 4f 48.00 B MT ft 6/46; 2026-09-16 IND 5f 63.00 B MT ft 2/4 · barn: same as last | fsElnLkStrHB100k → ITOBAFilyH125k | WEST AARON M | Favorite |
| 6 | SWISS MERINGUESHEEHY DANNY | 3.5 | C | Trouble lastSame trip2026-09-24 IND 4f 50.80 B MT ft 26/33; 2026-08-15 IND 4f 50.60 B MT ft 63/77 · barn: same as last | fsFrstLdyHB150k → ITOBAFilyH125k | LAUER MICHAEL | field |
| 1 | KABOOMBEALMEAR JOSEPH C | 6.0 | C | Top last paceSame trip2026-09-23 IND 4f 52.40 B MT ft 44/46; 2026-08-18 CDT 3f 39.00 B MT ft 5/5 · barn: same as last | fsFrstLdyHB150k → ITOBAFilyH125k | LAUER MICHAEL | field |
| 9 | ELTINGEPEDROZA MARCELINO | 8.0 | C | Rising figsTrouble lastSame trip2026-08-04 TTC 4f 48.80 B MT ft 4/9; 2026-07-03 TTC 4f 48.80 B MT ft 3/24 · barn: same as last | fsFrstLdyHB150k → ITOBAFilyH125k | LANGEMEIER JOHN L | primed |
| 7 | SPIRITED JUSTICEMENDOZA AMIR | 8.0 | P | Rising figsSame trip2026-07-30 IND 3f 37.00 B MT ft bullet 1/7; 2026-07-04 IND 3f 39.60 B MT ft 4/13 · barn: same as last | fsFrstLdyHB150k → ITOBAFilyH125k | MEDINA TOMAS | field |
| 8 | WOSIES PROMISESANJUR SANTO | 10.0 | E | Rising figs3rd start cycleLed last2026-08-18 IND 4f 49.40 B MT ft 22/49; 2026-07-24 IND 4f 49.40 B MT ft 21/37 · barn: same as last | fsAlw38400n2l → ITOBAFilyH125k | DURAN ANTONIO | primed |
| 5 | LEXIES LUNAR ROCKPRESCOTT R | 15.0 | C | 3rd start cycle2026-07-30 IND 4f 48.00 Bg MT ft 4/37; 2026-05-26 IND 4f 47.20 Bg MT ft 4/48 · barn: same as last | fsAlw38400n2l → ITOBAFilyH125k | SCHLING BRIAN L | field |
| 3 | PARTY IN THE CLUBULLOA ANDRES P | 20.0 | C | Trouble lastSame trip2026-05-15 IND 5f 60.40 B MT ft 3/6; 2026-03-24 IND 4f 48.40 B MT ft 8/17 · barn: same as last | fsFrstLdyHB150k → ITOBAFilyH125k | DOUGLASS DEVARUS | field |
| 4 | CRAZY SEXY COOLCRISPIN ALEXANDER | 20.0 | S | Rising figs2026-09-02 IND 4f 48.60 B MT ft 7/26; 2026-04-02 IND 3f 39.00 B MT my 9/12 · barn: same as last | fsClm15000n2l → ITOBAFilyH125k | RICHARDVILLE TIANNA | field |
| 10 | JUSTICEONTHERAILROMAN EVIN A | 25.0 | C | —2026-09-09 IND 4f 48.40 B MT ft 5/29; 2026-08-22 IND 4f 49.00 B MT ft 7/34 · barn: same as last | fsAlw38400n2l → ITOBAFilyH125k | FOSDICK STEVE | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACEIND R7 · 2026-09-30 · Dirt 1830y · ITOBAFilyH125k
- SHAPELone speed (#8) into nine closers; speed bias + inside rail bias favor the stalker from post 2; Scenario A overwhelmingly favors chalk
- CHALKFavorite#2 SMOKINGHOT JUSTICE · solid — top fig, inside post, 2nd-off-layoff, model overlay, clean pace path; short but rightful favorite
- LEANWinner call#2 SMOKINGHOT JUSTICE
- PRIMED#9 ELTINGE [rising figs, trouble last] — path is compromised by dead outside post (0% win, Posts 8+); #8 WOSIES PROMISE [rising figs, 3rd-start cycle] — route/stake stretch is a significant ask
- PRICEnone — no non-chalk overlay clears the bar; ELTINGE edge 0.004 is noise, outside post is a structural kill
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLA press on #8 opens Scenario B for #7 SPIRITED JUSTICE (only presser, path in B), but its fig ceiling (63) is below the chalk's 83 and still not a price overlay
- MISSINGlive tote, official scratches, weather, rider changes
Why
Dirt two-turn route ($125k fillies stakes) at IND on 09-30, field of 10, moderate volatility given a lone-speed shape and nine closers stacked behind it. #8 WOSIES PROMISE owns the lone-speed role with a track-bias-friendly inside rail bias, is primed (rising figs, 3rd-start cycle, led last), but stretches from sprints into a stakes route for the first time against a better field, and #2 SMOKINGHOT JUSTICE is the overwhelming chalk at 2-1 with the top fig (83), an overlay model edge, 2nd-off-layoff flag, and a clean stalking path from post 2 on an inside-favoring track. #9 ELTINGE is primed (rising figs, trouble last at 3p-checked 1/4) from post 9 with a closing path, but the outside post is a dead zone here (Posts 8+ = 0.0% winners in the 30-day bias) and its edge is negligible (0.004), making it a paper note rather than a live price ticket.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printPrice / ready board
Price overlays skip the favorite (shortest ML, or under 3-1). Ready flags are PP patterns — not a win % and not a proven ROI. Pace + drop is unique top last pace into a class drop. PD same · not fig skips a trip change and the unique top last speed fig.
Ready, not overlaid
Full field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SMOKINGHOT JUSTICE | 2.0 | 27.6% | 34.6% | +7.0% | 1.33 | C | favoriteRising figs2nd off layoffTop last figSame trip | — |
| 6 | SWISS MERINGUE | 3.5 | 18.4% | 14.6% | -3.8% | -0.50 | C | Trouble lastSame trip | — |
| 1 | KABOOM | 6.0 | 11.8% | 12.6% | +0.8% | 0.68 | C | Top last paceSame trip | — |
| 9 | ELTINGE | 8.0 | 9.2% | 9.6% | +0.4% | 0.59 | C | Rising figsTrouble lastSame trip | — |
| 7 | SPIRITED JUSTICE | 8.0 | 9.2% | 8.4% | -0.8% | 0.05 | P | Rising figsSame trip | — |
| 8 | WOSIES PROMISE | 10.0 | 7.5% | 6.9% | -0.6% | 0.08 | E | Rising figs3rd start cycleLed last | — |
| 5 | LEXIES LUNAR ROCK | 15.0 | 5.2% | 4.5% | -0.6% | -0.11 | C | 3rd start cycle | — |
| 3 | PARTY IN THE CLUB | 20.0 | 3.9% | 3.8% | -0.2% | 0.22 | C | Trouble lastSame trip | — |
| 4 | CRAZY SEXY COOL | 20.0 | 3.9% | 3.1% | -0.9% | -0.61 | S | Rising figs | — |
| 10 | JUSTICEONTHERAIL | 25.0 | 3.2% | 1.9% | -1.3% | -1.73 | C | — |