TDN R2 · 2026-10-07
Opens BetAmerica. Sign in there. Closebeat does not place this wager. Find TDN R2 · 2026-10-07 on their board.
Expert handicap
LEAN is the winner call. PLAY is the price. Same skill as Cursor. Not a ticket.
Pace map
Wall of early / pressers (#6 #1 #5)
Pressure high. From the file. Not Sim%. Not a ticket.
- C1#6RUNWITHHEARTE
- C2#1DR SCHUSTERE
- C3#7PATRIARCHALC
- C4#5OLIVERIOEP
- C5#3PUFFSMAGICDRAGONC
- C6#2GHOST BIKEC
- C7#4GUT INSTINCTC
Honest pace among #6 RUNWITHHEART and #1 DR SCHUSTER and #5 OLIVERIO. Ability decides if they do not empty.
Helps #6 RUNWITHHEART, #1 DR SCHUSTER, #5 OLIVERIO · hurts #6 RUNWITHHEART, #1 DR SCHUSTER, #5 OLIVERIO
Pressure: #6 RUNWITHHEART and #1 DR SCHUSTER and #5 OLIVERIO hook up. Midpack and stalkers improve.
Helps #7 PATRIARCHAL, #3 PUFFSMAGICDRAGON, #2 GHOST BIKE, #4 GUT INSTINCT · hurts #6 RUNWITHHEART, #1 DR SCHUSTER, #5 OLIVERIO
Chaos: fractions empty the speed. Closers inherit (#7 PATRIARCHAL, #3 PUFFSMAGICDRAGON, #2 GHOST BIKE, #4 GUT INSTINCT).
Helps #7 PATRIARCHAL, #3 PUFFSMAGICDRAGON, #2 GHOST BIKE, #4 GUT INSTINCT · hurts #6 RUNWITHHEART, #1 DR SCHUSTER, #5 OLIVERIO
Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow priors, not win%.
| # | Horse | ML | Style | Ready | Class | Barn | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | RUNWITHHEARTCHAVEZ ALEXANDER | 1.0 | E | Top last figSame trip2026-04-27 TDN 4f 48.00 B MT ft 2/45; 2026-04-10 HUF 4f 55.20 B MT ft 15/20 · barn: same as last | OC8000 → OClm 8000 | VECCHIO CARYN | Favorite |
| 5 | OLIVERIOSALAZAR BECERRA FERNANDO | 3.0 | EP | Trouble lastSame trip2026-09-02 HPT 4f 49.60 B MT ft bullet 1/6; 2026-08-04 HAW 4f 49.60 B MT ft 1/2 · barn: same as last | OC8000 → OClm 8000 | LOPEZ ELIAS | field |
| 3 | PUFFSMAGICDRAGONRIVERA L R | 4.5 | C | Same trip2026-05-04 TDN 4f 49.60 B MT ft 18/37; 2026-04-19 TDN 4f 49.40 B MT ft 10/14 · barn: same as last | OC8000 → OClm 8000 | RADOSEVICH JEFF | field |
| 1 | DR SCHUSTERTAPARA BRANDON | 8.0 | E | Led lastSame trip2025-07-26 TDN 4f 49.60 B MT ft 1/3; 2025-07-12 TDN 4f 51.60 Bg MT ft 14/17 · barn: same as last | OC8000 → OClm 8000 | SCHUSTER ROBIN | field |
| 7 | PATRIARCHALHALDAR HUMBERTO | 12.0 | C | Rising figsTag dropTop last paceSame trip2025-09-01 TDN 4f 51.60 B MT ft 15/15; 2025-08-12 TDN 4f 52.80 B MT ft 21/21 · barn: same as last | Clm10000 → OClm 8000 | VECCHIO CARYN | field |
| 2 | GHOST BIKEPARKER D L | 10.0 | C | Class dropSame trip2026-09-21 TDN 4f 48.00 B MT ft bullet 1/21; 2026-07-03 MNR 4f 50.60 B MT ft 5/5 · barn: same as last | Alw4000s → OClm 8000 | CRAWFORD GERALD | field |
| 4 | GUT INSTINCTSKERRETT JEFFERSON | 20.0 | C | Same trip2026-07-23 TDN 4f 48.80 B MT ft bullet 1/28; 2026-06-28 TDN 4f 47.80 B MT ft 2/11 · barn: same as last | OC8000 → OClm 8000 | SKERRETT JEFFREY | field |
From the file. Not a ticket. Style is U when call1/e1 do not speak.
- RACETDN R2 · 2026-10-07 · D / 1760y / OClm 8000
- SHAPEThree-way speed duel (#6 #1 #5) likely empties the pace; stalkers and closers improve but face a speed-biased, rail-favoring track
- CHALKFavorite#6 RUNWITHHEART · solid · top figure, two route wins here, class fit — but draws wide (post 6) against inside bias and risks a pace hook
- LEANWinner call#6 RUNWITHHEART · best figure, class parity, proven route winner at TDN; pace pressure is real but ability edge is clear
- PRIMEDnone (sheet finds no non-chalk horse with 2+ ready flags and a credible A/B path)
- PRICEno price (model shows #7 PATRIARCHAL with a slight edge signal and 3+ ready flags, but overlay=false at ML 12; no non-chalk overlay clears)
- PLAYPrice ticketPASS
- KILLInside rail bias materializes hard — a closer from posts 2-4 inherits; or #5 OLIVERIO absorbs the duel and stalks to the wire at EP style
- MISSINGLive tote, official scratches, weather/track variant, rider changes post-ingest
Why
Dirt route, OC/Clm 8000 at TDN, speed-favoring and rail-biased track with three early-pace types creating a genuine duel scenario — moderate-to-high volatility given the pressure map. #6 RUNWITHHEART is the chalk at ML 1, a two-time winner at this exact distance and class with the top figure, but faces a wall of speed that includes #1 DR SCHUSTER and #5 OLIVERIO, and draws post 6 against an inside-bias surface. No non-chalk horse clears two ready signals with a pace path — #7 PATRIARCHAL has rising figs, a tag drop, and a top late-pace number (LP 105 last), but is a pure closer from post 7 on a speed-biased rail track, putting it squarely in Scenario B/C territory with no overlay flag per the sheet.
Tote field
Whole board, one timestamp. This is the price the brief can read. Not a bet. Not Kelly. Morning line is what you ignored. A named PLAY stays a look until this stamp. Late scratch: tap SCR. Empty is missing, not a scratch.
Sign in to stamp the boardPractice ticket
Type the live board (to-1). We store the print and grade ticket → close after official results. Flat $2 practice. Not an overlay. Not real money. Morning line is shown only so you can see what you ignored.
Sign in to stamp a board printFull field
| # | Horse | ML | Mkt% | Model% | Edge | Signal | Style | Sheet | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | RUNWITHHEART | 1.0 | 39.7% | 44.2% | +4.5% | 0.79 | E | favoriteTop last figSame trip | — |
| 5 | OLIVERIO | 3.0 | 19.9% | 17.8% | -2.0% | -0.07 | EP | Trouble lastSame trip | — |
| 3 | PUFFSMAGICDRAGON | 4.5 | 14.4% | 14.9% | +0.5% | 0.50 | C | Same trip | — |
| 1 | DR SCHUSTER | 8.0 | 8.8% | 7.4% | -1.4% | -0.33 | E | Led lastSame trip | — |
| 7 | PATRIARCHAL | 12.0 | 6.1% | 7.3% | +1.1% | 1.05 | C | Rising figsTag dropTop last paceSame trip | — |
| 2 | GHOST BIKE | 10.0 | 7.2% | 6.0% | -1.2% | -0.39 | C | Class dropSame trip | — |
| 4 | GUT INSTINCT | 20.0 | 3.8% | 2.3% | -1.4% | -1.55 | C | Same trip | — |