Reading a Runner
What every number on the card means
A past-performance line is a wall of numbers designed to overwhelm you. Ignore 90% of it. Here is one runner the way the system sees it — only the fields that move money are kept:
Morning line / odds
The ML odds (here 6-1) are the track handicapper's opening guess; the live tote board is the real market. Convert any price to a probability with 1 / (odds + 1) — so 6-1 means the market thinks this horse wins about 14% of the time. That single conversion is how you compare a price to your opinion.
Speed, form, pace — the three real signals
Speed is how fast it has actually run (BRIS figures); it's the heaviest factor because it's the most predictive. Form is direction — recent finishes and whether the figures are climbing or fading. Pace fit asks whether today's shape suits the horse: lone speed in a slow race, or a closer when everyone else wants the lead. Everything else (breeding, trainer patterns, trip notes) is a tiebreaker at best.
The signal and the fair odds
We blend those three into one signal — a z-score standardized within the race, so+1.4z means "well above this field's average." You never bet the signal directly. The model uses it to tilt the market price into a fair odds number (3.6-1). When fair odds are shorter than the board (3.6 < 6), you're being overpaid — an overlay.