Glossary
Every term, in plain English. Search or filter by category.
38 terms
- AUC Model
- How well a score ranks winners over losers. 0.5 = coin flip; the closing market is ~0.77. → Trusting the test
- Bankroll Betting
- Money set aside for betting — and only money you can lose. It governs every stake.
- biasFit (zBiasFit) Model
- How well a horse’s style + post fit the day’s bias. Folds into the signal at a modest weight. → Reading the Track
- Calibration (ECE) Model
- Do horses we call 20% actually win 20%? Low ECE = honest probabilities. → Trusting the test
- Chaos race Betting
- A wide-open race where favorites are vulnerable — the best spot for exotics.
- Class Handicapping
- The quality level a horse has competed at (purse/conditions).
- Closing line Odds
- The final odds at post — the sharpest price in the market and the benchmark to beat.
- CLV (Closing Line Value) Value
- Tote or ticket you booked vs the close. Morning-line → close is drift (mlDriftToClose), not CLV, and does not cash in the win pool. → CLV
- Edge Value
- Your win % minus the market’s implied %. Positive = value; it must clear a threshold to bet.
- Exotic Betting
- A multi-horse bet (exacta, trifecta, superfecta). High variance, separate scorecard.
- Fair odds Value
- The price that exactly matches your honest win probability. Beat it on the board → overlay.
- Form Handicapping
- Recent results and trajectory — are the figures climbing or fading?
- Generator Model
- Which strategy produced a bet (e.g. win-overlay, exotic). Lets you measure ROI by source.
- How hard we tilt toward the model Model
- How hard the model leans on its signal vs the market. Zero means we stay with the crowd. → The One Idea
- Implied probability Odds
- Convert odds to a win %: 1 / (odds + 1) for to-1 odds. 4-1 ⇒ 20%.
- Kelly criterion Betting
- Sizes a bet in proportion to its edge. Bet a fraction (¼) to tame the variance. → Making the Bet
- Miss why Handicapping
- Why a stored PLAY missed: board inside the floor, chalk not opposable, pace map wrong, PLAY out, or no tote. A miss log. Not a weight and not edge.
- ML→close drift Value
- Morning-line odds vs closing odds. Proof reports this as mlDriftToClose. Diagnostic only — reserve CLV for tote/ticket. → CLV
- Morning line (ML) Odds
- The track handicapper’s opening odds — a guess, not the market. The live tote is the truth.
- Overlay Value
- A horse the board pays MORE than your fair estimate — the only thing you bet. → Overlays
- Pace (E1 / E2 / LP) Handicapping
- How a horse distributes energy — early speed vs late kick. Drives pace-fit.
- Pari-mutuel Betting
- Pooled betting: all winning tickets are paid the FINAL odds, regardless of when you bet. → CLV
- PLAY look / action Handicapping
- A named PLAY is a look until you stamp the live tote field. After the stamp it is an action grade. PASS needs no stamp. Not edge.
- Post position Handicapping
- The starting-gate slot. Inside saves ground; outside can be an advantage on a biased track.
- ROI Betting
- Profit per dollar staked — the bottom line. Pari-mutuel ROI is what unlocks live betting.
- Running style Handicapping
- E early, EP early/presser, P presser, S stalker, C closer, U unknown. Race-page pace map orders first call from these.
- Scenario A/B/C Handicapping
- A likely flow, B pressure/duel, C collapse. Win PLAY needs a path in A or B. C-only is price only. Flow, not win%.
- Scratch Handicapping
- A horse withdrawn before the race. It drops out of the field and the odds reshuffle.
- Signal Model
- The composite z-score blending speed/form/pace (and bias). What the model tilts the market by.
- Speed figure Handicapping
- A single number rating how fast a horse actually ran (BRIS). The heaviest factor.
- Takeout Odds
- The track’s cut of every pool (~15–20%). The house edge your skill has to overcome.
- To-1 odds Odds
- Profit per $1 staked. 4-1 returns your $1 plus $4. Used everywhere in this app.
- Track bias Track
- The surface favoring a running style or post on a given day. A tailwind or headwind. → Reading the Track
- Underlay Value
- A horse priced shorter than fair — the crowd knows more than you. A pass. → Overlays
- Value Value
- Betting a mispriced price, not a “good horse.” The horse can lose and still be a great bet. → The One Idea
- Walk-forward / holdout Model
- Train on the past, test on a future the model never saw. The only honest backtest. → Trusting the test
- Win pool Betting
- Bets on the outright winner — the cleanest, most measurable edge.
- z-score Model
- A value standardized within the race: 0 = field average, +1 = clearly above, −1 = below.